Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 000WTNT31 KNHC 021444TCPAT1 BULLETINHURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 40NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1620111100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...38.7N 60.9WABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTSISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. OPHELIA ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THISMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ISFORECAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ONMONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTEDTO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLYMONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANEON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING ISFORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTERPASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185MILES...295 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALONPENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$FORECASTER BROWN
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