Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012
000
WTNT44 KNHC 300237
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 70
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012
THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN MICROWAVE DATA AND
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY
RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE BLEND OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. NADINE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH LOW SHEAR BUT A RELATIVELY
COOL OCEAN. AFTER THAT...NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
LARGE TROUGH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY...NADINE WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
SOON. ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM NORTHWEST OF
NADINE...AND THIS PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRAP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY KICK NADINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE
DEEPENING TROUGH. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW THE TRACK MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY INSIST ON LOOPING NADINE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN
TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. FOR
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 35.6N 37.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 36.8N 38.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 37.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 36.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 35.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 35.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 36.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 41.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 300237
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 70
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012
THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN MICROWAVE DATA AND
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY
RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE BLEND OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. NADINE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH LOW SHEAR BUT A RELATIVELY
COOL OCEAN. AFTER THAT...NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
LARGE TROUGH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY...NADINE WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
SOON. ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM NORTHWEST OF
NADINE...AND THIS PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRAP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY KICK NADINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE
DEEPENING TROUGH. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW THE TRACK MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY INSIST ON LOOPING NADINE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN
TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. FOR
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 35.6N 37.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 36.8N 38.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 37.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 36.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 35.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 35.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 36.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 41.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...