Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013
000
WTNT44 KNHC 121439
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM...HUMBERTO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CONTINUED
HINTS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
STRONG...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST DSHIPS AND LGEM PREDICTIONS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...OR
360/13. A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WHILE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BY THIS TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING STEERING
CURRENT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
A RECENT ASCAT OVER PASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER HURRICANE
THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
ACCORDINGLY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 21.8N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 23.3N 29.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 24.6N 31.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 25.4N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 26.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 27.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 29.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 31.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 121439
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM...HUMBERTO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CONTINUED
HINTS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
STRONG...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST DSHIPS AND LGEM PREDICTIONS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...OR
360/13. A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WHILE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BY THIS TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING STEERING
CURRENT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
A RECENT ASCAT OVER PASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER HURRICANE
THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
ACCORDINGLY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 21.8N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 23.3N 29.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 24.6N 31.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 25.4N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 26.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 27.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 29.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 31.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...