Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
000
WTNT44 KNHC 111435
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE...
WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.
HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC
FORECAST.
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY
PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 29.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 18.2N 29.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 20.0N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 23.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 24.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 111435
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE...
WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.
HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC
FORECAST.
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY
PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 29.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 18.2N 29.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 20.0N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 23.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 24.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Continue reading...