Economic bubble burst in China??

[cherrynegra]

Okay, things have been rather quiet here on the HKDL front. So I just wanted to throw a topic out there for us to discuss. Something for us to play devil's advocate about. Curious if you've all noticed the volatility in the markets last week. Some of it was due in part to concerns that China's economy is heading for a crash due to it's phenomenal growth. So let's say the economy heads south in China, what's the effect on HKDL? Could we be looking at another DLP in the making?

And what if they have another SARS epidemic? Remember how that affected tourisim in HK? Planes flying the Pacific with five passengers on the plane.

Not trying to scare anybody, but just looking to have an interesting debate.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...s_chicagotrib/fearsofboomgoingbustloominchina

 

[jrriddle]

Man I hope not.
Hopefully HK will hold up a little better than mainland China.
Perhaps not building alot of attractions may pay off.
I read that book you suggested (Keys to the Kingdom). It looks like Eisner learned something from the EuroDisney situation.
BTW I have some good follow up links about the Paris Park for you.

BTW on another note check your PMs

 

[cherrynegra]

Hey JR!! Check your PM. Thanks for the info. That book was a great read, wasn't it?

I don't know about Eisner learning though. I could be wrong but the HK park seems to be heavy on the shopping and resort areas. Sound familiar? I know at DLP I read Paris was like 30 miles away so people didn't feel the need to stay at the park. Thus the empty rooms. I think HK is even closer to HKDL.

Let me know if there are any more updates with photos or articles with HK. You always seem to have the right connections in those areas.

 

[jrriddle]

Good points.
At least he didn't build 6 hotels at opening (notice even the number of hotels for DCA was also less then when it was Westcot?).
Also (and I'm not up on my HK geography) but being across the Bay from HK and the spectacular views will hopefully entice people to stay at the park.
When I find more updates I'll post them ASAP!

 

[cherrynegra]

Well, I don't know if people will spend the money to stay at the resort. I could be wrong. Do you know if the hotel is going to be an in-park hotel like the Mira Costa at Disney Seas? The fewer number of attractions and lands could be an indicator they want to start small and grow, but I would've sacrificed one of the hotels for more attractions. Interesting to see the numbers when they go head to head with Ocean Park.

 

[jrriddle]

No the hotels will not be "in the park" but across a road, obviously no monorail but the walk doesn't look that long.
From what I can tell the "money rooms" will be the ones looking out across the bay at the city.
I agree that sacrificing a hotel for more rides would be great. But from what I understand the real money is in overnight guests and merchandise.

 

[jrriddle]

Here's the thread I was thinking of.
Has a map of the resort with the positions of the Hotels.

http://photoalbums.wdwmagic.com/data/500/10833hkdl-master-plan.jpg

 

[cloudboy]

I definitely DON'T think he learned. He is still trying to apply his sense of reasoning and guess work and attitude to a completely different culture. And I don't think he got it too right.

I do not think that it is that easy to compare HK and France - in France there is so much to do, and land is not at the premium that it is in HK. A lot is going to depend upon how much thye charge for the rooms - room in HK can be astronomical, so if they aren't too crazy about pricing then I think it may do them well.

I also think that you do not have the negativity that the French did towards American culture there. I think that Disney in itself will be much more of a draw. I do think that they are going to be hurt badly by not having enough open, and nothing really special, either, over Tokyo. It's not going to have the global draw it may need.

I am more worried about the political situation is going to affect it. It seems like the Chinese government is really starting to flex it's muscles over Hong Kong and I think that may have a negative effect on the park.

 

[jrriddle]

That's a very good point about the political situation in China, something that I haven't even thought about.
I'm going to do some research, see if I can find anything. If I do I'll post it.
BTW Please don't take my coments as being pro-Eisner. He is being more conservative than in Paris. But he seems to be over doing it in HK.

 

[cherrynegra]

Originally posted by cloudboy
I am more worried about the political situation is going to affect it. It seems like the Chinese government is really starting to flex it's muscles over Hong Kong and I think that may have a negative effect on the park.

I don't see the Chinese gov't doing anything that winds up killing the goose that laid the golden egg if you know what I mean. However, one could play out a scenario where they tighten the reins on any further democracy movement in HK, and the activists decide to fight back. How patient will Beijing be? Any deterioration in the political atmosphere could have an adverse effect on the HK park.

 

[DarkMeasures]

THis is a little off topic but there seems to be a lot of room for the berm to be moved outwards at HKDL. Would this be possible.

Now on topic. I am sure HKDL can survive a depression. The company did so in the 30's but there was no theme parks then.

 

[jrriddle]

The thing is, I don't understand why they didn't move the train tracks out a bit more so that there is more room to expand.

 

[cherrynegra]

And the way that they have the hotels flanking the park on the south where there appears to be more room to expand. And what do they plan on putting in that area marked Phase 2 Reclamation? I agree as well with your observation about the train tracks. Why hem yourself in? Unless they plan on burrowing underneath them and have pathways go under the tracks to attach future lands.

 

[jrriddle]

Originally posted by cherrynegra
Unless they plan on burrowing underneath them and have pathways go under the tracks to attach future lands.

Seems to be an awful lot of work.
I don't understand where they can expand.

 

[jrriddle]

Originally posted by cherrynegra
And what do they plan on putting in that area marked Phase 2 Reclamation?

I thought we all agreed in that other thread it was going to be Atlantis! :lol: