DVD business unlikely to beat 2004 record

Woody13

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[SIZE=-2]Staff and agencies
30 December, 2005

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By Thomas K. Arnold 31 minutes ago

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - The sky might not have fallen on the fast-maturing DVD business in 2005, but the double-digit revenue growth studio home entertainment divisions have enjoyed almost since the format‘s launch in 1997 did come to a grinding halt.

Final numbers on consumer spending won‘t be available until the middle of next week, but the consensus among studio executives, analysts and other observers is that it might be hard to top the record $24.5 billion consumers spent on home video purchases and rentals in 2004.

This comes despite a late-year surge that saw exceptional sales for several titles released late in the fourth quarter, including "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," which has sold almost five million units since its December 13 release, according to Universal Studios Home Entertainment president Craig Kornblau said.

"When it comes down to giving gifts for the holidays, DVDs still are one of the premier choices," he said.

Indeed, most observers attribute the flattening of the market to deep discounting at retail rather than consumer disinterest -- though the depressed box office certainly didn‘t help matters. Wal-Mart stores during the holidays were selling such top theatrical titles as "Shark Tale" and "Shrek 2" for as little as $3.99. On Black Friday -- the day after Thanksgiving and the traditional start of the holiday shopping season -- Circuit City had a selection of hits, including "The Incredibles," the year‘s No. 1 DVD seller, priced at just $14.99.

For the year, "unit sales will almost certainly be up," Kornblau said. But for now, the jury remains out on accurate revenue totals. In November, the most recent month for which numbers are available, Nielsen VideoScan point-of-sale data showed a 13.6% uptick in unit shipments but an overall video revenue gain of just 6.3% from November 2004.

Sony Pictures Home Entertainment president Benjamin Feingold said a studio analysis of VideoScan data pegs unit sales for the year to be up 5.9% from 2004. The revenue picture, however, remains unclear pending the receipt of final sales date through December 31.

Feingold fingers "catalog pricing" as the big revenue-buster but maintains that there‘s little studios can do about it at this point. "It‘s difficult to arrest price declines on an existing format," he said. "Historically, that‘s not something that has been a successful strategy."

That‘s why it is so important to bow a new format, Feingold said.

"Projections I made for Sony (corporate) four years ago were that the market would top out in 2005, and that‘s why I was so anxious for a new format to be introduced," he said.

Although year-end revenue numbers have not been tallied, two things that have been decided are the annual market-share derby among studios and the year‘s top DVD sellers.

Analyzing Nielsen VideoScan data, trade publication Home Media Retailing‘s market research department gives the 2005 market-share crown to Warner Home Video, with a 19.8% share. Warner had several huge DVD titles for the year, including "Batman Begins," "The Polar Express" and "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory." But it owes its victory more to the sheer mass of product it pumped into the market, including well-received special editions of classics like "The Wizard of Oz" and franchise properties in the TV-DVD and children‘s video arena.

Disney‘s Buena Vista Home Entertainment came in second, with a market share estimated at 14.9%. The studio‘s video coffers were fueled by "The Incredibles," the year‘s top-selling DVD, and strong performances by special DVD editions of "Bambi" and "Cinderella."

In the race for third place, it was a neck-in-neck finish between Universal Studios Home Entertainment and 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, each with 13.5%.

Universal‘s figure includes its distributed DreamWorks Home Entertainment titles, such as top sellers like "Shark Tale" and "Madagascar," though the studio on its own scored big with "Meet the Fockers" and "Ray" in the first half of the year and "Virgin" in December. Broken out, Universal‘s market share for the year is pegged at 9.2%, while DreamWorks checks in at 4.3%.

Fox fielded a slate of big sellers throughout the year, including "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith," "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" and "Fantastic Four," all fourth-quarter titles that maintained momentum through the holiday selling season.

Sony Pictures Home Entertainment finished in fifth place for the year with a 13.1% market share. The studio‘s marquee title was "Hitch"; its video profile was further heightened in July when it took over distribution of MGM titles.

Rounding out the six major studios was Paramount Home Entertainment, in sixth place with a 9.9% market share. Paramount‘s big title was "The Longest Yard," though much of its market share came from its TV-DVD output, which included the year‘s top TV-DVD seller, Comedy Central‘s "Chappelle‘s Show: Season 2," with unit sales estimated at 2.8 million by Home Media Retailing.

"The Incredibles" was the top-selling DVD, with total sales to date estimated at 17.4 million units by Home Media Retailing. Second place went to "Revenge of the Sith" with 10.4 million units, while "Madagascar" and "Shark Tale" tied for third with sales of 10 million units each.

"Polar Express" came in at No. 5 with 8.1 million units, followed by "Meet the Fockers" (No. 6, 7.21 million units), Buena Vista‘s "National Treasure" (No. 7, 7.2 million) and "Cinderella" (No. 8, 6.6 million), "Ray" (No. 9, 6.5 million) and "Batman Begins" (No. 10, 6.2 million).

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter
 

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