Do you think Shanghai will go for another expansion next or go for a second gate?

[Haymarket]

In light of the lavender park news:

• Chat GPT says a June 2026 announcement of a second park is 75–80% likely.
• Grok says 85–95%
• Kimi says 92–95%
• Qwen says ~99% ("effectively certain").]

The average is 90%.

Kimi:

**This is definitive, ground-truth evidence. The probability now moves to ** 92-95% **.

Why This Closure Notice is a ** "Smoking Gun" **:​

1. Direct Actor : Shanghai Shen Di Garden Investment Construction Co., Ltd. is 100% owned by Shanghai Shendi Group—Disney's joint venture partner. This isn't a third party; this is the entity that controls the land.

2. Explicit Rationale: The notice states "因园区规划调整及新项目发展需要" ("due to park planning adjustments and new project development needs"). In Chinese government/enterprise communication, this phrasing is deliberate and specific—it legally commits to a new development.

3. Perfect Timing:

• Closure: December 31, 2025
• Site preparation window: January-May 2026 (5 months)
• Announcement: June 16, 2026 (10th anniversary)
• Construction start: Q3 2026

4. Land Control: Lavender Park occupies portions of Blocks 1-4 (the approved zoning area). Clearing this land is a mandatory prerequisite for major construction. You cannot keep an operational park on land designated for theme park foundations and underground utilities.

Reconciling with Previous Evidence:​

• April 2025 zoning approval → Legal permission granted
• November 2025 CapEx guidance → Disney's financial capacity confirmed
• December 2025 park closure → Physical site mobilization begins
  
  This is the execution phase. Governments and state-owned enterprises don't close revenue-generating parks without final project approval and financing secured.

Updated Assessment:​

• The 5-8% remaining uncertainty is now purely external risk (geopolitical crisis, major economic shock). The internal greenlight is essentially complete.
• Key inflection point: If construction equipment appears on-site before June 2026 (visible via satellite), the announcement becomes a formality. If the site remains untouched through Q2 2026, probability drops to ~75%.
• Action item: Monitor satellite imagery of the Lavender Park coordinates (31.1417°N, 121.6570°E) in January 2026. Ground disturbance = announcement certainty.

 

[infloencer]

In light of the lavender park news:

• Chat GPT says a June 2026 announcement of a second park is 75–80% likely.
• Grok says 85–95%
• Kimi says 92–95%
• Qwen says ~99% ("effectively certain").]

The average is 90%.

Kimi:

How would any AI know when a new Disney park is announced with little to no data on the subject? Trying to predict anything here is just pure speculation and truly a waste of time and—more importantly—a waste of water and energy through the use of generative AI.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

How would any AI know when a new Disney park is announced with little to no data on the subject? Trying to predict anything here is just pure speculation and truly a waste of time and—more importantly—a waste of water and energy through the use of generative AI.

It's drawing inferences based on the inputted data as any AI engine works, and Haymarket isn't putting it forward as any kind of assumption, just fun speculation as to where all these various growth signals may be heading towards. This isn't a commentary or forum for anyone's perspective on generative AI.

 

[SplashJacket]

It's drawing inferences based on the inputted data as any AI engine works, and Haymarket isn't putting it forward as any kind of assumption, just fun speculation as to where all these various growth signals may be heading towards. This isn't a commentary or forum for anyone's perspective on generative AI.

I think the issue is applying percentages obfuscates what’s actually going on. The AI is effectively arbitrarily coming up with a percentage and then acting as if it’s a hard-calculation developed through modeling (aka what it’s pretending to be doing).

 

[lazyboy97o]

It's drawing inferences based on the inputted data as any AI engine works, and Haymarket isn't putting it forward as any kind of assumption, just fun speculation as to where all these various growth signals may be heading towards. This isn't a commentary or forum for anyone's perspective on generative AI.

They are consistently called assessments which are “the action or an instance of making a judgment about something”. It’s not making a judgement or even drawing inferences. It’s putting words together in an order that makes some sense merely as a pattern of words.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

I think the issue is applying percentages obfuscates what’s actually going on. The AI is effectively arbitrarily coming up with a percentage and then acting as if it’s a hard-calculation developed through modeling (aka what it’s pretending to be doing).

I understand that, but my point is either way it's intended to be more fun fodder for conversation than it is to be taken as anything more than that. Meaning, don't take it too seriously, it's just fun.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I understand that, but my point is either way it's intended to be more fun fodder for conversation than it is to be taken as anything more than that. Meaning, don't take it too seriously, it's just fun.

So someone just making up things about new rides would also be “fun fodder for conversation”?

 

[denyuntilcaught]

So someone just making up things about new rides would also be “fun fodder for conversation”?

You mean Armchair Imagineering which happens in many threads across several forums?

Do you have any new intel regarding the second park development?

 

[lazyboy97o]

You mean Armchair Imagineering which happens in many threads across several forums?

Armchair Imagineering is typically presented as such. People get called out when they present their hypotheticals as real.

Do you have any new intel regarding the second park development?

No and I’m not claiming to either.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

Armchair Imagineering is typically presented as such. People get called out when they present their hypotheticals as real.

Which Haymarket never did, so I'm not exactly sure what the problem is here. They never said, or said anything close to "Grok said this, therefore it must be real." If anything, just shared their own enthusiasm based on the responses, and so be it. It's a fan forum. It's clear the AI-generated responses are just fodder for the conversation and aren't intended to be anything more than that; to interpret otherwise is a skill issue, IMO.

Anyways, to get us back on topic. One thing I haven't seen been discussed is the high likelihood that Shanghai's second park and Abi Dhabi are being developed concurrently. Although they are two vastly different markets, contexts (castle park vs. original), and scenarios (CCP vs. UAE), I can't help but wonder where the overlap may exist in development, if at all. We all know the company loves to find efficiencies where they can.

Basically, I wonder if there's any clues in the scant Abu Dhabi announcements. Again, all speculation and fodder for discussion.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Which Haymarket never did, so I'm not exactly sure what the problem is here. They never said, or said anything close to "Grok said this, therefore it must be real." If anything, just shared their own enthusiasm based on the responses, and so be it. It's a fan forum. It's clear the AI-generated responses are just fodder for the conversation and aren't intended to be anything more than that; to interpret otherwise is a skill issue, IMO.

They’ve been called assessments and analysis. If somebody tells you they did an analysis of something you expect they did more than string together some words and actually engaged in thoughtful review.

Anyways, to get us back on topic. One thing I haven't seen been discussed is the high likelihood that Shanghai's second park and Abi Dhabi are being developed concurrently. Although they are two vastly different markets, contexts (castle park vs. original), and scenarios (CCP vs. UAE), I can't help but wonder where the overlap may exist in development, if at all. We all know the company loves to find efficiencies where they can.

Basically, I wonder if there's any clues in the scant Abu Dhabi announcements. Again, all speculation and fodder for discussion.

The external partners have not really been keen on supporting efficiencies for Disney, and that’s even more so when it comes to the other external partners.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

They’ve been called assessments and analysis. If somebody tells you they did an analysis of something you expect they did more than string together some words and actually engaged in thoughtful review.


The external partners have not really been keen on supporting efficiencies for Disney, and that’s even more so when it comes to the other external partners.

Know when to let the dog die, lol.

You make a good point though re: external partners and efficiencies. Do we know that about Shendi and Miral though? I only ask about Shendi specifically in the case of Seven Dwarves Mine Train which, if I'm not mistaken (I very well could be!), was indeed designed relatively concurrently for both parks. So not sure if Shendi is as allergic to efficiencies in R&D as the OLC or the Hong Kong government. And that's saying nothing about Miral.

 

[Nickm2022]

any ideas on possible themes and or IP's for a second gate?

 

[HauntedPirate]

any ideas on possible themes and or IP's for a second gate?

 

[monothingie]

any ideas on possible themes and or IP's for a second gate?

 

[Purduevian]

any ideas on possible themes and or IP's for a second gate?

Disney's Shanghai Adventure World is coming.