I've been following the scheduling shuffles for the next two years for quite some time and figured I might as well commit to the internet what is just sitting on my computer. For a while it seemed like 2018 might be the real standout to overthrow Disney's record setting 2016. While that may be the case, 2019 has now become the year to really watch. Comparing 2016 to 2018/2019: here are my conservative estimates for the domestic box office and the final tallies.
2018 could surpass 2016, whereas I expect 2019 will surpass 2016. The Power of literally every studio's biggest franchise all in one year (2019) is definitely one to watch!
(Colour coding for year versus year film slate performances. Green denotes a strong film, red a weaker year on year direct comparable. Bolding for those that are grossly better or worse).
2016
Dec – The Force Awakens
Jan – Finest Hour
March – Zootopia
April – Jungle Book
May – Civil War
May – Alice
June – Finding Dory
July – The BFG
August – Pete’s Dragon
Sept – Queen of Katwe/Light between oceans
November – Doctor Strange
November – Moana
Dec – Rogue One
2018
Dec- The Last Jedi/Coco/Thor (250)
Feb- Black Panther (225)
March-Wrinkle in Time (200)
May- Infinity War (450)
May – Han Solo (400)
June- Incredibles 2 (250)
July- Ant Man 2 (225)
August- Christopher Robin Movie (100)
November- Nutcracker 4 realms (100)
November- Wreck it Ralph (200 for 2017)
December- Poppins (200 for 2017)
+/- YOY
-50
+200
-100
-350
+50
+400
-250
+175
+25 (??)
-25
-125 (??)
+0
-200
----------------------
-150
2.65-3.05 billion
2019
Dec – Mary Poppins (50)
Feb – Nothing (0)
March – Captain Marvel (225)
March – Dumbo (200)
April – Untitled DisneyToon (??) (100)
May – Avengers (450)
May – Aladdin (300)
June – Toy Story 4 (450)
July – Lion King (400)
August – Artemis Fowl (100)
November – Nicole (150)
November – Frozen (300 for 2017)
Dec – Star Wars IX (450 for 2017)
+/- YOY
-225
-25
-125
+200
-225
+50
+225
-50
+350
+25
-25
-75
+100
+100
--------------------
+350
3.1-3.5 billion
2018 could surpass 2016, whereas I expect 2019 will surpass 2016. The Power of literally every studio's biggest franchise all in one year (2019) is definitely one to watch!
(Colour coding for year versus year film slate performances. Green denotes a strong film, red a weaker year on year direct comparable. Bolding for those that are grossly better or worse).
2016
Dec – The Force Awakens
Jan – Finest Hour
March – Zootopia
April – Jungle Book
May – Civil War
May – Alice
June – Finding Dory
July – The BFG
August – Pete’s Dragon
Sept – Queen of Katwe/Light between oceans
November – Doctor Strange
November – Moana
Dec – Rogue One
2018
Dec- The Last Jedi/Coco/Thor (250)
Feb- Black Panther (225)
March-Wrinkle in Time (200)
May- Infinity War (450)
May – Han Solo (400)
June- Incredibles 2 (250)
July- Ant Man 2 (225)
August- Christopher Robin Movie (100)
November- Nutcracker 4 realms (100)
November- Wreck it Ralph (200 for 2017)
December- Poppins (200 for 2017)
+/- YOY
-50
+200
-100
-350
+50
+400
-250
+175
+25 (??)
-25
-125 (??)
+0
-200
----------------------
-150
2.65-3.05 billion
2019
Dec – Mary Poppins (50)
Feb – Nothing (0)
March – Captain Marvel (225)
March – Dumbo (200)
April – Untitled DisneyToon (??) (100)
May – Avengers (450)
May – Aladdin (300)
June – Toy Story 4 (450)
July – Lion King (400)
August – Artemis Fowl (100)
November – Nicole (150)
November – Frozen (300 for 2017)
Dec – Star Wars IX (450 for 2017)
+/- YOY
-225
-25
-125
+200
-225
+50
+225
-50
+350
+25
-25
-75
+100
+100
--------------------
+350
3.1-3.5 billion