000
ABNT20 KNHC 030501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...
ABNT20 KNHC 030501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Continue reading...