News Disney’s Q2 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast

[LSLS]

Hang on, I was assured the pricing increase was always about lowering attendance for a better experience. Now crowds are rising and they are offering crazy discounts as well? Are you telling me the price raises were in fact not about getting less people in the parks?

 

[JD80]

Disagree. Those folks exist, but it was more than that. We had multiple insiders indicating that things weren't going great. Multiple people who work for or run bookings companies talking about lower numbers.

None of that was definitive proof but it certainly made it look like things would be a little down or flat, not up.

We had one travel agent everyone took at his word about bookings. Did we have any others?

What insiders were doom casting anything?

 

[Kamikaze]

Very unexpected…and not the picture that has been painted on the ground by P&R…with the exception of DCL

Just saying

And I know I’m not alone because I’m not getting nearly the blowback I usually would when I question the C-Suite

Very “subdued”…which hints that expectations Weren’t there.

Is it the time in the world to be bragging about how well you're doing when a lot of pain is going to be coming for most people?

No one 'on the ground' knows anything anyway.

Constantly telling you and people like you that you're wrong gets exhausting, because you never change your mind, tune, or schtick no matter what.

I didn't expect these types of numbers either, just based on everything else going on, but I'm not going to accuse or in your case, try to hint, of Disney of lying about them.

 

[JD80]

Hang on, I was assured the pricing increase was always about lowering attendance for a better experience. Now crowds are rising and they are offering crazy discounts as well? Are you telling me the price raises were in fact not about getting less people in the parks?

We don't have TEA numbers for 2024 but we're still a few million off peak 2019.

And if occupancy holds north of 90% you'll understand why the CFO said what he said last quarter.

90% occupancy is 2018 and 2019 crowds.

If summer is soft but annual occupancy numbers are high then the fall and winter are going to be nuts.

 

[LSLS]

We had one travel agent everyone took at his word about bookings. Did we have any others?

What insiders were doom casting anything?

I think a problem we have is that we are now 2 years removed from when things really went down hill, so things are getting mixed together. 2023 summer was shockingly bad from about all accounts. Then that thread ran for like 2 years.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Disagree. Those folks exist, but it was more than that. We had multiple insiders indicating that things weren't going great. Multiple people who work for or run bookings companies talking about lower numbers.

None of that was definitive proof but it certainly made it look like things would be a little down or flat, not up.

I have been around here for long enough to have heard of soft numbers at different times for well over a decade now from multiple inside sources that haven't been borne out in the numbers when the quarterly results are announced. It is a narrative that seems to gather momentum pretty regularly in line with general sentiment about how WDW is being run.

That doesn't mean people are being dishonest, it just means that the reports are a little anecdotal even when it comes to travel agencies with owners posting on here. These agencies likely account for a tiny fraction of WDW's overall visitors so their handle on overall trends is limited and can be skewed by shifts in how people book their vacations.

Again, I say all this from the perspective of not finding WDW great value right now. It is hard, though, to deny these numbers look good for them.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

I'm pleasantly surprised by the domestic theme park attendance numbers, especially for 3Q and 4Q.

It shows how much of a draw the parks are, even for international visitors.

And the current discounting seems like it'll shore up any dip in that.

I think they are rightly worried about a medium to long term decrease in the number of international visitors. That does take out a lot of people who can/are willing pay the highest price points we've seen post-pandemic. That leaves the parks to fill in with more middle class domestic tourists. WDW is such a major draw that there is tons of people to backfill that demand.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is it the time in the world to be bragging about how well you're doing when a lot of pain is going to be coming for most people?

No one 'on the ground' knows anything anyway.

Constantly telling you and people like you that you're wrong gets exhausting, because you never change your mind, tune, or schtick no matter what.

I didn't expect these types of numbers either, just based on everything else going on, but I'm not going to accuse or in your case, try to hint, of Disney of lying about them.

I’m not saying you don’t have valid points

But “tact” and Wall Street aren’t bedfellows .

And you didn’t expect this. No one did. Obviously I’m not alone.

Hell…I hadn’t given quarterlies much thought until a few days ago when I heard it mentioned on squawk…and they weren’t expecting them to be paving the asphalt in Burbank with gold today.

Good for Disney. But not for you or me…we didn’t “win” today.

Well I did…as I still have chunks of my $15 stock that’s old enough to buy alcohol now. But it will go back down…it always does with bad management.

 

[HauntedPirate]

TA's telling us summer bookings are soft and cancellations are happening left, right, and center.

ADR's available at 98% of restaurants day-of.

Almost year-long discounts.

Disney CFO Hugh G Johnston telling us one quarter ago that they expect Epic to have a negative impact, after telling us two quarters ago that summer 2025 bookings "look strong".

International travelers boycotting the US in numbers not seen... ever?

Reported quarterly numbers are up, up, and up, with Bob saying "Everything is great!"

 

[Kamikaze]

But is it a “good” thing? We’re gonna long kick this one around

If they are literally only licensing and doing Imagineering, its not like there's a lot at risk.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There are a handful of loud prolific posters that created an echo chamber that Disney was failing and some people assumed it was common sense when in reality most people don't know anything.

Is that the first thing on the pod today? Maybe an bio of Drew after?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disagree. Those folks exist, but it was more than that. We had multiple insiders indicating that things weren't going great. Multiple people who work for or run bookings companies talking about lower numbers.

None of that was definitive proof but it certainly made it look like things would be a little down or flat, not up.

…and that’s why not much stirred here for the first two hours of this “triumph”

No one was expecting this.

But now the retconning period shall begin

 

[Batman'sParents]

They’re lying

Oh well…keep on carrying on

It's only a $200 deposit to book a WDW package. So if they have cancellations, they won't show up till later.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's only a $200 deposit to book a WDW package. So if they have cancellations, they won't show up till later.

Yeah I don’t know how much that changes the game? It might.

 

[Kamikaze]

…and that’s why not much stirred here for the first two hours of this “triumph”

No one was expecting this.

But now the retconning period shall begin

Or maybe people were like, getting ready for their day, or didn't hear yet.

 

[Batman'sParents]

I'm pleasantly surprised by the domestic theme park attendance numbers, especially for 3Q and 4Q.

It shows how much of a draw the parks are, even for international visitors.

And the current discounting seems like it'll shore up any dip in that.

TWDC is also more likely to cater to economic demographics that are less likely to cancel trips due to economic pressures. TWDC will still feel an impact, just not as much as SeaWorld or chain hotels on 192. Disney bubble impact.

 

[Kamikaze]

It's only a $200 deposit to book a WDW package. So if they have cancellations, they won't show up till later.

Why does everything have to be a conspiracy?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Or maybe people were like, getting ready for their day, or didn't hear yet.

Right…cause Disney fans aren’t known to obsess about Disney around the clock

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm pleasantly surprised by the domestic theme park attendance numbers, especially for 3Q and 4Q.

It shows how much of a draw the parks are, even for international visitors.

And the current discounting seems like it'll shore up any dip in that.

Perfect Person to ask:

You’re there…you live it more than anyone…

Do these numbers make sense?

 

[Batman'sParents]

Why does everything have to be a conspiracy?

It's not a conspiracy. And I apologize if that's a tone I'm using, which is not my intention.

It refers to the fact that, should domestic or global economic growth slow, vacations will be one of the first things to be cut. Since TWDC requires only a $200 deposit for a trip, it is relatively easy to cancel. Those types of numbers would be reflected in later reports.

I want TWDC to do well; they are a massive contributor to Florida's economy, directly and indirectly.