INVEST 99L (to be named Tropical Storm or Hurricane Sara) and possible WDW impacts

IanDLBZF

IanDLBZF

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
1731444590876.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three
days while the system moves slowly westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the
disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the
weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward
by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Click to expand...
1731444782767.png
 
Achtzehn

Achtzehn

New Member
Oh gosh late season hurricane again…! I think it’s gonna have a pretty similar track to Ian so south of Tampa Bay and Orlando which mean less impact for WDW…

Milton was the most impactful hurricane to hit Orlando since Irma in 2017.
 
IanDLBZF

IanDLBZF

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
1731462620517.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea have become
more organized in associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next
week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of
Haiti during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Click to expand...
 
IanDLBZF

IanDLBZF

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
1731519886522.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the
western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely
while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea
through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly
northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and
northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly
Click to expand...
 
B

Brisco

New Member
Best case scenario if this thing develops would be a hit south of Marco Island like the median (black line) is currently showing. Peak storm surge would be mostly in the wildlife. Could go anywhere though.
 
IanDLBZF

IanDLBZF

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
1731598447951.png

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Honduras and the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the
coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near
the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
Click to expand...
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom