Lightning Lane Premier Pass

[Disstevefan1]

Not to refute Len or his wait times. But as i stated a buddy just got back a couple weeks ago was there in parks for 8 days. Only purchased LL twice. He basically said every wait time in every park was over stated. Some worse than others.

I have heard this a lot. Apparently the data says one thing and some folks actual experience says another. I cant explain it.

From my past experience the posted wait time was always longer than I actually waited and that made me happy.

I need to do some testing now and see if that is still the case.

 

[Jrb1979]

I used it in February different style of trip but unless i am missing something drops were basically non existent. Years past you basically were able to count on them with like 95% accuracy unless a ride was down then obviously they werent dropping inventory. Maybe others can offer some insight to current drop times/availability

Not surprised at all. With the addition of Premier Pass, regardless how many are buying it, they need to keep spaces for that.

 

[Splash4eva]

I have heard this a lot. Apparently the data says one thing and some folks actual experience says another. I cant explain it.

From my past experience the posted wait time was always longer than I actually waited and that made me happy.

I need to do some testing now and see if that is still the case.

Exactly. I truly dk anyone who has gone and who wait on any lines where the posted wait times are actually correct and again all wrong with being inflated. Like i said. Im not saying its done to sell LL but im not saying it isnt. Whatever the reason Disney has one and its been constant. Listen i remember back in day they would sometimes do this to discourage people from possibly going to rides late at night. But this trend has happened for a long long times.

 

[Splash4eva]

Not surprised at all. With the addition of Premier Pass, regardless how many are buying it, they need to keep spaces for that.

But how can you constantly be off each and every ride each and every time…

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I used it in February different style of trip but unless i am missing something drops were basically non existent. Years past you basically were able to count on them with like 95% accuracy unless a ride was down then obviously they werent dropping inventory. Maybe others can offer some insight to current drop times/availability

Even on a very slow day, there were few bookable drops, especially in the morning.

They sometimes appear to occur, but then are not bookable, even if one is very quick.

Phantom passes distort LLMP, so it looks like a better product than it is. It is a slimy aspect of LLMP.

 

[lentesta]

If @lentesta says todays posted wait times are more accurate (however they are doing it) I wont dispute it.

Len is the king of data. If I understand it correctly, Len has folks in the queues actually measuring times.

I apologize for my confusion.

FWIW, I think UOR's using video cameras and AI to count how many guests are in line. I could be wrong.

 

[Splash4eva]

Even on a very slow day, there were few bookable drops, especially in the morning.

They sometimes appear to occur, but then are not bookable, even if one is very quick.

Phantom passes distort LLMP, so it looks like a better product than it is. It is a slimy aspect of LLMP.

Altho i agree with you on what you are saying i pretty much had almost close to 100% success on using it as did almost anyone close to me who used it as well. Granted yes we are not the normal guests and your point it completely valid but there definitely were drops and if you knew when you could have easily planned accordingly and took a very highly calculated and effective risk

 

[nickys]

Even on a very slow day, there were few bookable drops, especially in the morning.

They sometimes appear to occur, but then are not bookable, even if one is very quick.

Phantom passes distort LLMP, so it looks like a better product than it is. It is a slimy aspect of LLMP.

Someone has to be booking them though.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Not to refute Len or his wait times. But as i stated a buddy just got back a couple weeks ago was there in parks for 8 days. Only purchased LL twice. He basically said every wait time in every park was over stated. Some worse than others.

I don't think anyone is saying the times aren't off - and more specifically overstated. It is sort of expected.

The question is if they are more off/inflated now with charging for line skipping than in the past and it seems like data Len has shows no discernable difference

I think it makes sense for things to be inflated a bit just as people feel better if told a 30 min wait and you only wait 20 vs the reverse and I don't think an inflation of that level impacts the feelings of those that paid for line skipping.

The issue would be if they are consistently posting wait times of 60+ mins and waits are only 20mins and I don't think any data shows anything like that and certainly not moreso than in the past

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Altho i agree with you on what you are saying i pretty much had almost close to 100% success on using it as did almost anyone close to me who used it as well. Granted yes we are not the normal guests and your point it completely valid but there definitely were drops and if you knew when you could have easily planned accordingly and took a very highly calculated and effective risk

I'm not saying I have never gotten any drops, btw. (Though I was perhaps a little late to finding out about Thrill Rides Data.)

And for quite a while I had 100% getting VQ's.

I wonder if there is a difference between Apple and Android in MDE.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Someone has to be booking them though.

MDE should give users something like a 10-second hold time to book same-day passes.

 

[nickys]

MDE should give users something like a 10-second hold time to book same-day passes.

I don’t know how it works. But I know people who do pick up LLs as a result of drops - unless of course it’s pure coincidence that they are ready to do so at specific known times and get lucky.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

The issue would be if they are consistently posting wait times of 60+ mins and waits are only 20mins and I don't think any data shows anything like that and certainly not moreso than in the past

A number of forum members thought reforming/reducing DAS would fix the problem.

I also think how much times are off can be characterized in different ways. If the posted wait is 10minutes, and actually is 5, ten we could characterize the posted wait as only off by 5minutes, or we could say the posted wait was half the actual wait. Both would be correct.

There is also the challenge of how to characterize some of the pre-shows like GoG and Rise.

How often are any of us here willing to test the wait for accuracy when it is over 60minutes? I think most of us here know basic park touring strategy, so we don't get in line for 7D when standby waits are at their daily peaks.

 

[Splash4eva]

I'm not saying I have never gotten any drops, btw. (Though I was perhaps a little late to finding out about Thrill Rides Data.)

And for quite a while I had 100% getting VQ's.

I wonder if there is a difference between Apple and Android in MDE.

Apple here if that helps…

 

[Splash4eva]

I don't think anyone is saying the times aren't off - and more specifically overstated. It is sort of expected.

The question is if they are more off/inflated now with charging for line skipping than in the past and it seems like data Len has shows no discernable difference

I think it makes sense for things to be inflated a bit just as people feel better if told a 30 min wait and you only wait 20 vs the reverse and I don't think an inflation of that level impacts the feelings of those that paid for line skipping.

The issue would be if they are consistently posting wait times of 60+ mins and waits are only 20mins and I don't think any data shows anything like that and certainly not moreso than in the past

Disney has their reasons and whatever they are we will never know. We can guess but most likely never know but imo no wait line posted 60 minutes should never be off more than 10. No wait time of 45 should be off more than 5. Anything 30 and below should be accurate. So on and so forth with longer yet every person i talk with who goes all say same with more inflated wait times. Even if its to make the guest “feel good” its still a “deceptive” practice. And honestly. If you are a multi billion dollar corporation with a name like Disney (at least what it use to mean) and you need to inflate wait times to increase guest satisfaction you better re think your strategy Robert…

 

[Splash4eva]

I don’t know how it works. But I know people who do pick up LLs as a result of drops - unless of course it’s pure coincidence that they are ready to do so at specific known times and get lucky.

Do we have an updated list and inventory drops?

 

[JD80]

I also think how much times are off can be characterized in different ways. If the posted wait is 10minutes, and actually is 5, ten we could characterize the posted wait as only off by 5minutes, or we could say the posted wait was half the actual wait.

This is not how you do statistics.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Apple here if that helps…

Android here

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Do we have an updated list and inventory drops?

there's thrill ride Data.

Some rides have a long list of potential drop times, but only some of them happen. TRD appears to have updated their list since just a few weeks ago. Previously, they had some of the drop times highlighted, which I took to mean the more likely drop times.

 

[nickys]

Do we have an updated list and inventory drops?

Touring Plans “liners” keep an updated list.

And for a while here I think @Purduevian had one running.