Hurricane Milton coming to FL 10/9

[EricsBiscuit]

This is what worries me personally the most. I'm about 30-35 miles inland from Homosassa in sumter county

I live just north of Tampa well outside of any flood zone but still in the cone. The business is in Tampa though so I’m worried about the storm surge and wind.

 

[JoeCamel]

897 millibars......

 

[Vacationeer]

Question my friend has…

They have a planned trip for Disney world starting this Saturday.

They are ultimately concerned about flooding and what will ultimately be opened and closed.

They don’t want to waste their money if they can still cancel and jeopardize their safety with flash flooding events.

They have time to decide. Since Milton has hit hurricane status, anything booked through WDW can be refunded or rescheduled. Everything 3rd party will need to be handled separately though. By late Thursday or early Friday there should be a much clearer picture how WDW is affected.

Help

Help

disneyworld.disney.go.com

Q:
Will I be responsible for any cancellation or change fees or other amounts if a hurricane warning is issued within 7 days of my arrival date?
A:
If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area—or for your place of residence—within 7 days of your scheduled arrival date, you may reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Company Disney Resort hotel packages and most room only reservations (booked directly with Disney) without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. Most room-only and vacation packages can be modified, or cancelled online, including changes to travel dates.
If you have products and services provided by third-party suppliers included in your vacation—such as air transportation, hotels, car rental agencies or travel insurance companies—you will continue to be responsible for any non-refundable payments, as well as cancellation or change fees assessed by those suppliers. The policy does not apply to certain special events or dining experiences.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

897 millibars......

15 mb above the all time record.

 

[cr3346]

Pressure is up to 906 on the latest update. Seems Milton has gone through an ERC. Looks like he's starting to expand as well. The inner eye is only 5NM wide, which is incredibly small

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Are you still predicting a Homosassa landfall? Obviously that would be a preferable outcome for everyone in the WDW area, so I'd love to see you be right about that.

I have the same question as @Brian is your prediction the same?

Hey, sorry for the lateness of the message. I took a breather for a bit today and went to Epcot to check out the prep as I've been up since 2:50am EDT. The models are currently much more south of Homosassa Beach and the consensus. As of this moment in time, waiting for the new models, I am concurring with the NHC forecast models, but I want to note the system is being under represented by the models atm, but if I had to make a call with the latest that I've been seeing, Largo will be the epicenter. But again with the models showing the storm weaker by 70mb there abouts at the moment, I need to extrapolate further.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[larryz]

Hey, sorry for the lateness of the message. I took a breather for a bit today and went to Epcot to check out the prep as I've been up since 2:50am EDT. The models are currently much more south of Homosassa Beach and the consensus. As of this moment in time, waiting for the new models, I am concurring with the NHC forecast models, but I want to note the system is being under represented by the models atm, but if I had to make a call with the latest that I've been seeing, Largo will be the epicenter. But again with the models showing the storm weaker by 70mb there abouts at the moment, I need to extrapolate further.

Here's hoping the diminished winds will lower the storm surge prediction for Tampa Bay...

 

[Gringrinngghost]

More from today:

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Here's hoping the diminished winds will lower the storm surge prediction for Tampa Bay...

But again with the models showing the storm weaker by 70mb there abouts at the moment,

What I mean is, the current models hour 6 for the last two runs have somehow been off by 70mb.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

But again with the models showing the storm weaker by 70mb there abouts at the moment,

What I mean is, the current models hour 6 for the last two runs have somehow been off by 70mb.

The models have not been great at catching how rapidly this has intensified.

 

[SoFloMagic]

The models have not been great at catching how rapidly this has intensified.

Not surprising considering how unprecedented this has been. I'd imagine the models will continue to struggle as changes in climate and weather patterns impact storm development.

 

[cr3346]

Mission 11 vortex: 912 mb, 4nm inner eye closed, 24nm outer eye (open in SW), inbound sfmr winds 155mph, outbound 191mph. Max flight 182mph.

 

[SoFloMagic]

Mission 11 vortex: 912 mb, 4nm inner eye closed, 24nm outer eye (open in SW), inbound sfmr winds 155mph, outbound 191mph. Max flight 182mph.

Oof. Eyewall replacement cycle?

Hopefully he hits some cooler water before the new eye is solid

 

[EricsBiscuit]

Hey, sorry for the lateness of the message. I took a breather for a bit today and went to Epcot to check out the prep as I've been up since 2:50am EDT. The models are currently much more south of Homosassa Beach and the consensus. As of this moment in time, waiting for the new models, I am concurring with the NHC forecast models, but I want to note the system is being under represented by the models atm, but if I had to make a call with the latest that I've been seeing, Largo will be the epicenter. But again with the models showing the storm weaker by 70mb there abouts at the moment, I need to extrapolate further.

Thank you for the reply. Do the models show the approximate storm surge on the Hillsborough County coastline of Old Tampa Bay? Also, approximately what wind speeds are you expecting in Lutz and Carolwood? Thank you so much

 

[cr3346]

Oof. Eyewall replacement cycle?

Hopefully he hits some cooler water before the new eye is solid

Indeed. Should be interesting to see what happens overnight

 

[Ayla]

Oof. Eyewall replacement cycle?

Hopefully he hits some cooler water before the new eye is solid

Pretty sure it's coming up on the hottest water in the Gulf.

 

[Quietmouse]

Explain like I’m 5 what this all means ^

 

[JoeCamel]

Pretty sure it's coming up on the hottest water in the Gulf.

I swam in the Bay once and off Florida many times, the Bay was much warmer and the whale sharks like it. Anyone follow the gulf temps before this popped up?

 

[JoeCamel]

Explain like I’m 5 what this all means ^

The Bay of Campeche is some of the hottest water in the gulf traditionally, soon it will hit the center where the water is slightly cooler and may weaken a bit.