Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[JD80]

I was always an advocate of every LL entry point had surge pricing. Walk over to an attraction, see the wait time, app says $X per person to skip the line. For the system to work the value X has to be as low enough to make that decision. Like Pirates with a 30m wait, LL would be $2-4 pp depending on crowd levels etc.

But you want to talk about nickle and diming and trip complexity. This may just irritate the heck out of people.

 

[Disstevefan1]

(JK, I know the first one obviously has a limit)

Yes, my post should have said within limits.

If the ODLLPP was the same price as LLPP (if both existed at the time) logic tells us to get the LLPP.

If the ODLLPP was 2X the LLSP for the day, then at that moment it probably would have been a yes. Also not knowing the price, the part of my brain that says "I NEED TO GO ON IT NOW", just tap in, do the ride and check the bill later.

I have been burnt many times when I let the other side of my brain say, "I will buy that later or I will do that later"

The ODLLPP could also be great if I want to ride a single attraction 3 times.

Its a fun thought, but we know they will never do it.

I wonder if they will create an unlimited LL premium or, LLUPP for some astronomical price that allows unlimited re rides

 

[Andrew C]

Yes, my post should have said within limits.

If the ODLLPP was the same price as LLPP (if both existed at the time) logic tells us to get the LLPP.

If the ODLLPP was 2X the LLSP for the day, then at that moment it probably would have been a yes. Also not knowing the price, the part of my brain that says "I NEED TO GO ON IT NOW", just tap in, do the ride and check the bill later.

I have been burnt many times when I let the other side of my brain say, "I will buy that later or I will do that later"

The ODLLPP could also be great if I want to ride a single attraction 3 times.

Its a fun thought, but we know they will never do it.

I wonder if they will create an unlimited LL premium or, LLUPP for some astronomical price that allows unlimited re rides

oh my goodness, the abbreviations here...

 

[HauntedPirate]

Spot pricing for Lightning Lanes should be a thing. Great idea. Holy cow.

I'm sure it's been considered at some level of management. Because in their eyes:

And can others please stop saying LL is "skip the line"? It's not, never was, and never will be.

 

[lentesta]

Len - can you share what rides you counted?

Yep - places where we could see the merge point without being in line, so most of Fantasyland, parts of Tomorrowland, Spaceship Earth, Living with the Land. And others.

Then we reached out to park ops friends and said "This is what we're seeing. Is this new?" And got that confirmation from multiple, separate sources.

 

[Disstevefan1]

And can others please stop saying LL is "skip the line"? It's not, never was, and never will be.

LL is skip the standby lines where the trash people are, but I agree LL is still a line.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

LL is skip the standby lines where the trash people are, but I agree LL is still a line.

 

[dmw]

oh my goodness, the abbreviations here...

We need a TOD of TLAs ASAP

 

[Laketravis]

A little queueing science from a past life:

There are several established queueing theory formulas that can be applied to what is a comparatively simple scenario involving an entrance with just two queues, a fixed (or even variable) per-hour capacity, the number of guests arriving at the non-scheduled queue (Standby) per a Poisson process (because we know how many people are actually in the park) and a known number of scheduled guests arriving at the second queue admitted at a ratio of Scheduled to Standby.

The science is administered first to the pay for group via scheduled arrival times and windows (LL and LLMP with consideration for the LLPP group as well) since these quantitities and schedules can be accurately determined. The predicted wait times for the Standby group can then be calculated.

If only we knew which particular formula WDW uses

 

[DisneyHead123]

I was always an advocate of every LL entry point had surge pricing. Walk over to an attraction, see the wait time, app says $X per person to skip the line. For the system to work the value X has to be as low enough to make that decision. Like Pirates with a 30m wait, LL would be $2-4 pp depending on crowd levels etc.

But you want to talk about nickle and diming and trip complexity. This may just irritate the heck out of people.

Yeah, pros and cons for sure. As a parent I’ve had those “I will take out a second mortgage to get on this freaking ride right now!!” moments, lol. But imagine the outrage and opportunity for negative social media spin when LLs inevitably hit some ridiculous price.

 

[gorillaball]

Spot pricing for Lightning Lanes should be a thing. Great idea. Holy cow.

Noooo. We have enough variables to consider!

 

[gorillaball]

1. This was before LLPP existed.
2. Even if it had existed, I do not want to pay for LLPP when I want to ride ONE ride.

I would however pay some price for an on demand LLPP for a single attraction. Obviously depending on the price of the On demand LLPP or ODLLPP that would change my opinion, but for THAT moment, I did not care, if I could tap in, get charged, I would have done it.

Should have got in line. How often are wait times overstated? Also, if 0 LL are in line the standby is going to fly!

 

[Disstevefan1]

Should have got in line. How often are wait times overstated? Also, if 0 LL are in line the standby is going to fly!

I have to say both are good points. I just didn’t want my family member to have to navigate the scooter in that switch back. At a glance it seemed like it’s gonna be a pain.

 

[CAV]

Giving out less (lowering the inventory) of LL makes them more valuable and will drive up the price. Its possible they can make MORE MONEY selling LESS and LL becomes more of a status symbol, plus the stand by times go down for the poor folk.

When you think this helps Disney, they make more money selling LLs and standby goes down for the rest of us!

Yes and no. In the classic sense, lower supply+ higher demand= more cost. However, since the consumer doesn't know what the supply is, the demand is largely unaffected and the cost is not relative.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yes and no. In the classic sense, lower supply+ higher demand= more cost. However, since the consumer doesn't know what the supply is, the demand is largely unaffected and the cost is not relative.

I thinking was when they lower the inventory, very quickly, word would get around that they are selling out quick just like any shortage of anything.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I thinking was when they lower the inventory, very quickly, word would get around that they are selling out quick just like any shortage of anything.

How does "we don't have many LLs left" actually "get out"?

Sell-out of LLs has been very rare so far.

 

[Disstevefan1]

How does "we don't have many LLs left" actually "get out"?

Sell-out of LLs has been very rare so far.

Lets say they set the inventory to some lower number and they do begin to sell out.

The word will get out immediately on social media, YouTube, forums (this one first!) word would spread fast you know this.

A sign came down in Frontierland and news spread immediately!

Now you can argue that business is so poor that LL do not sell out anymore, but that another argument altogether.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Lets say they set the inventory to some lower number and they do begin to sell out.

The word will get out immediately on social media, YouTube, forums (this one first!) word would spread fast you know this.

A sign came down in Frontierland and news spread immediately!

Now you can argue that business is so poor that LL do not sell out anymore, but that another argument altogether.

This theory depends upon selling out often. Which hasn't happened. And is part of the usual conspiracy theory of 'false shortage' that drives demand.

I'll applaud your astute predictions if and when there are frequent sell-outs. But only as much as they do actually sell out, not because of fake scarcity.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Lets say they set the inventory to some lower number and they do begin to sell out.

The word will get out immediately on social media, YouTube, forums (this one first!) word would spread fast you know this.

A sign came down in Frontierland and news spread immediately!

Now you can argue that business is so poor that LL do not sell out anymore, but that another argument altogether.

How much will that world really "get out" do you think to the general public, as opposed to just the fanatics that live in the Disney echo chamber, and really aren't all that much of the overall market share? in speaking with what i would classify as normal families/friends that go to WDW, none of them are on message boards, fan site, youtube channels, ect. For people like us who are invested enough to be on a fanboard site, sure the news of what happened last saturday at AK might get out there pretty quick. But is that really going to get out to the general public enough to effect

 

[Disstevefan1]

How much will that world really "get out" do you think to the general public, as opposed to just the fanatics that live in the Disney echo chamber, and really aren't all that much of the overall market share? in speaking with what i would classify as normal families/friends that go to WDW, none of them are on message boards, fan site, youtube channels, ect. For people like us who are invested enough to be on a fanboard site, sure the news of what happened last saturday at AK might get out there pretty quick. But is that really going to get out to the general public enough to effect

Fair point. The regular folks working through travel agents, I presume the agent will tell them. Regular folks use social media too, if/when LL are selling out, the word will get out quick especially if regular folks have a bad experience at the parks because LL are sold out.

After thinking about it, I think Disney would not purposely lower the inventory to force demand, I think they just want to sell as many LLs as they can right now.