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This looks hilarious, by the way. I hope I can catch it while it's out. Made for less than $1m, it's already made a profit after having the biggest opening for an IFC release (bigger than last year's Late Night with the Devil). Based on an award-winning YA horror book, there are two others in...

I think Tron is a property that's really popular with the people who love it, but doesn't generally have four quadrant appeal. Having the ride in WDW now might actually help with that, so this release will be more interesting than the last one.

For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long. This one looks like it could be really funny. I can't tell if the tone will be too over the top from the trailer I've seen.

I mean, I thought labeling the first column as "Net" would make that pretty clear, no? In short, you need to compare the studio take against 1.25x of the budget, not 2.5x. By doing the latter, you're comparing apples and oranges -- essentially holding the theater's take against the movie's profits.

And just real quick, Brian Lo had done this previously hundreds of pages ago, but here's checking the formula being used against Deadline's tail of the tape for the four biggest bombs of 2023. Deadline had these as: Marvels -$237m IJ 5 -$143m Wish -$131m HM -$117m Pretty dang close, no? And...

Timely. Here's the numbers using the actual formula recommended to you by Brian Lo a few times. [He can correct me, if I've gotten it wrong.] For fun (and because we're all about comparisons here, right? <taps thread sign>) I threw in the top 30 grossers at the BO so far in 2025, so y'all can...

You don't actually have to wait any amount of time. Just adjust the bombsights (pun intended). If you know that what TP posts is lowballing things for both failures and successes, then you can still have the conversation that you want to have -- you just have to more or less ignore his attempt...

This is because companies don't just magically stop making money at that point. What on earth is the point of complaining about how truncated earnings are too small? If people here are so concerned about Disney's bottom line then maybe they need to stop using figures that don't actually match...

Not true. The bar isn't as high as all of that. As an example, per Deadline, Mufasa netted $175m for Disney after grossing only $722m against a $200m budget. If Stitch does as massively as people are thinking (against a very reasonable budget), it'll easily erase SW and then some.

It's really not, at least not for Disney's movies/practices. See all of the work that Brian Lo has done throughout this thread to backprove numbers and compare them to Deadline's end of year tale of the tape and/or Disney's reported quarterly/annual numbers.

You want a prediction? Thunderbolts* should look pretty similar to Cap 4 for its WW total (~$200m/$420m) when all is said and done. This'll put it firmly in the wash category -- far from covered in red ink. You need to figure out how to be understood first before you can be the vanguard of...

2.5x is a conservative guideline. The actual breakeven point is usually a touch lower than that. Captain America and (soon-to-be) Thunderbolts essentially fall into the wash category, not the loss column. And it's ridiculous to think that those movies will be the high water mark for the year.

I'm really confused by the line of, er, reasoning(?) that has taken over the last couple pages of the thread. Are there really people who think that Disney will be the #1 grosser in 2025, but somehow not make a profit on their movie slate because... goodness. I was just showing data the other...

I'll continue my effort to be remembered by you forever. When you enter the 2nd-run period of a release (aka cheaper tickets -- $7 vs $12 near me), you're probably not going to magically increase your per theater haul. Disney's just looking to squeeze as much blood out of the stone as possible...

I think this all depends on how old you were at the time. It was less than 6 years between the 2nd Ewoks movie airing and Heir being published with the laserdisc releases (yes, we had a player) releasing in between. I was pretty much the perfect age for all of that stuff as it came out, and it...

Just to get ahead of how TP might confusingly frame it, I think we should expect to see Snow White's theaters actually go back up a bit this weekend. It looks like it's entering the 2nd-run pricing phase of its release -- went from just 1 AMC near me last weekend back to all 6. I would also not...

Just two data points, but Tuesday and Wednesday this week were both larger domestically than the same days for Brave New World or Quantumania (not high bars, I know), despite the lower opening, so it's on early pace to recover to somewhere north of $200m. It'll be interesting to see what this...

See also the response to Godzilla Minus One on this forum. "Why can't we have competent special effects for pennies on the dollar?" Well, you see...

For real. You might as well just be begging for nothing but Superman, Batman, Spider-Man, and X-Men movies for the rest of your life -- like how it was for the 70+ years before the MCU came along. Don't get me wrong. I'm not a huge fan of the MCU, but that's because of storytelling weaknesses...

FWIW, although the first Moana certainly got more critical acclaim than the recent sequel, audience reaction seems to be just fine. As an example, the audience score on RT only dropped from 89% to 86% between the two. Likewise, Frozen II actually has a considerably higher score (85% vs 92%) than...