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Again, untrue. Only the top 4 or 5 movies last year clearly made more money at the box office than elsewhere. Source: Deadline

I'm really not. I'm just reporting the numbers from a variety of studios that are attributed to non-Theatrical income. I'm making no assumptions as to what specific sources that income is coming from (like you are). To use Cap 4 as an example, I am not saying that it's some dramatic moneymaker...

Absolutely true. You don't think that the movie with the 2nd highest gross income at the BO so far this year (Cap 4, which would have been 14th overall last year) will correlate to a correspondingly high income in the home market?

This is not true. Take a look at these 5 moderately successful horror movies from last year. Take a gander at the revenue section for each of them. What % of that revenue is coming from "Theatrical"? https://deadline.com/2025/04/most-profitable-movies-2024-biggest-returns-1236379096/ Even...

Meant to respond to this earlier. They absolutely did make them for "some" people. Comic books, superheroes, and their movies have never been a four-quadrant endeavor. They've always skewed male and younger. The fact that the MCU contains movies and shows explicitly designed to target different...

Pretty sure I've actually interpreted this one. "Friday" being when Lilo & Stitch is out and will hit pretty massively, so therefore it will be proof that all Disney movies are intended to hit massively and rake in the bucks at the BO.

I'd have to do some comparing to make sure, but my feel is that it's held relatively well (percentage-wise) for a (non-event) MCU movie, but it had such a relatively small opening (smaller even than Cap 4's opening, which was boosted by a holiday weekend) that it would have had to have...

So the problem here is that you're reading my calm statement of fact as an endorsement of the result. It's not. I just don't feel the need to take a crap all over the thread because of it.

It'll probably end up virtually identical to Cap 4, which puts both firmly in the wash category -- making nothing at the box office, which will likely be converted into slim profits once PVOD and streaming gains are added into the bottom line.

Sadly, no. Deadline indicated that they lost a total of $628m on those four movies combined. All right, so you're off by a total of $196m (~30%) on these four movies. The formula Brian Lo is urging you to use only missed by a total of $68m (~10%). I already went back in the post chain you're...

You'd have to tell me. Because the fallacies in this thread? They ain't comin' from me.

Also, definitely not. Theater counts typically change on Friday. Snow White will be back to a much lower number after its quick surge since it's available on PVOD now. Thunderbolts* will probably nearly maintain its number, but is going to drop another 30% of its screenings. [Now ~50% of where...

Just planning to ignore my request? The movies in question are The Marvels, Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, and Wish. The numbers that you flog differ from reported reality by... well, by a lot. Which is the whole point in this most recent conversation around formulas.

Which is just silly because saying that Snow White has essentially lost as much as The Marvels did in 2023 (which this formula indeed shows) is bad. The next two worst movies from the past 2.5 years lost about $100m less than each of those did. But it's also true that Disney is pretty...

Did you miss my post about how we're not really looking to model reality in any detail because we don't know reality? Even the budget numbers that everything hinges off of in the first place don't necessarily match reality. Any rationalization given is just a simple warm fuzzy to try to make...

Intentional misunderstanding is always super clever around these parts. The likes will be sure to roll in.

The point is that we're trying to come up with a best-fit estimate to the profit/loss numbers that are eventually reported. Any formula we can come up with (and the justification for it) is a fiction because we're not privy to the complicated contractual details that go into making any movie, so...

That example might (just might) have had some other cultural headwinds going against it, too. Unless we think it's perfectly normal for reasonably entertaining movies to pull in a 1.6 rating on IMDb these days. Tha Realest did say that there wasn't a strong correlation between trailer views and...

We've got a local multi-purpose theater (live music, lectures, old movies, etc.) that'll play old stuff, but I think the cheapest it gets is $9 (adults)/$7 (kids) for Saturday matinees. This month's series is Star Wars eps 4-7. Our local 2nd run theater when I was a kid was $2/ticket. That'd be...

Not aimed at you, just using your words because it's convenient. The transformation of movies into "must see events" instead of just a thing you go do is what's going to kill theaters. Either that or tickets will have to be priced at "event" levels accordingly. If people think it costs too much...