Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Week One: 88M, implying 264M total
Week Two: 164.7M (+76.7M), implying 320.8M
Week Three: 242.6M (+77.9M), implying 398.4M
Week Four: 297.6M (+55M), implying 407.6M

The end point seems to be solidifying.

This has to be a little concerning for Pixar and Disney, reviews are positive, word of mouth is positive, no controversy… and it’s in break even territory.

I don’t know how Hollywood turns this around, I’m part of the problem because I’m so used to waiting to watch stuff on D+ I have no intention of seeing anything in the theater anymore, between talking, cell phone screens, etc the “at home” experience is just a more preferable way to watch movies now.

 

[Nevermore525]

This has to be a little concerning for Pixar and Disney, reviews are positive, word of mouth is positive, no controversy… and it’s in break even territory.

I don’t know how Hollywood turns this around, I’m part of the problem because I’m so used to waiting to watch stuff on D+ I have no intention of seeing anything in the theater anymore, between talking, cell phone screens, etc the “at home” experience is just a more preferable way to watch movies now.

Studios will continue to play it safe with sequels/remakes/Familiar IP with a taste of original films in the quest to find the next cash cow.

Audiences have consistently shown they want for the most part safe things that feel familiar (Minecraft/Mario/Sequels)

 

[TP2000]

There has been a lot of talk about how no one cares about avatar and it has not permeated popular culture despite being successful…. Well I know someone who absolutely adores Avatar… my 13 year old niece...

Can you get her out to Utah this Halloween? It would help my Pop Culture Costume Tracking immensely!

 

[TP2000]

First pass at weekend box office is out, gang. Not much news, just the same trajectories playing out after several weeks.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BrianLo]

This has to be a little concerning for Pixar and Disney, reviews are positive, word of mouth is positive, no controversy… and it’s in break even territory.

I don’t know how Hollywood turns this around, I’m part of the problem because I’m so used to waiting to watch stuff on D+ I have no intention of seeing anything in the theater anymore, between talking, cell phone screens, etc the “at home” experience is just a more preferable way to watch movies now.

It doesn't help per se, but it doesn't hurt them either. They are happier with singles and doubles than flops.

If all those factors remain true (ie quality and WOM), then they mostly recuperate the money upfront and continue to hope for success in the back end. Disney does tend to be able to water their well-received animated films more than expected. It seems true to children's media.

It does put pressure though to look and continue to mine their past.

 

[Nevermore525]

Hoppers should become the second highest grossing original animated film of the 2020s just before Mario takes over the screens.

Hoppers stands at $297.6M, Migration finished at $300.5M

And Mario will likely pass Hoppers total gross this weekend. Sequels and IP reign

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Week One: 88M, implying 264M total
Week Two: 164.7M (+76.7M), implying 320.8M
Week Three: 242.6M (+77.9M), implying 398.4M
Week Four: 297.6M (+55M), implying 407.6M

The end point seems to be solidifying.

For all the posts framing it as successful, these don’t seem like big numbers to me.

Maybe the sequel will do $1B in 3-4 years (and then people will complain about originality lol.)

 

[Nevermore525]

For all the posts framing it as successful, these don’t seem like big numbers to me.

Maybe the sequel will do $1B in 3-4 years (and then people will complain about originality lol.)

They’re not big numbers, but it’s the going rate for truly original films (Sinners, Elemental, Migration, Hoppers) at this time, until audiences show otherwise

Adaptations from books/history (PHM, Oppenheimer) or popular franchises (Mario, Barbie, Minecraft), remakes (Lilo & Stitch, likely Moana), sequels (Moana 2, Zootopia 2, Inside Out 2, Maverick, Jurassic World), just perform better because of some familiarity and safe feel.

 

[DKampy]

Can you get her out to Utah this Halloween? It would help my Pop Culture Costume Tracking immensely!

I would… but I have a feeling if I told.her to go see a dog who enjoys serving martinis at cocktail parties in Utah while dressed in her Avatar costume…. She may give me odd looks…. Besides she already felt too old to go Truck or Treating this year… as I said it was a Halloween party

 

[TP2000]

I would… but I have a feeling if I told.her to go see a dog who enjoys serving martinis at cocktail parties in Utah while dressed in her Avatar costume….

For the record, on Halloween I never have my evening martini until after I turn off the front lights around 9:00pm.

Even when I lived in swinging SoCal, I figured the neighbors didn't need their kids getting candy from some old well-meaning queen sloshing a cocktail around on their costumes. Then I moved to Utah, and I had to double down on that as many of my neighbors with children are Mormons, and I certainly wouldn't want to offend them.

But let me tell you, when that porch light goes off on October 31st and I'm left with a few Reese's for myself, I pour a well-deserved dry martini and reflect on a life well lived. Still, Halloween is often one of the looongest nights of the year!

She may give me odd looks…. Besides she already felt too old to go Truck or Treating this year… as I said it was a Halloween party

Well, probably for the best. Did she make her costume herself? Did Mom help? It's not something available in stores really.

 

[TP2000]

For all the posts framing it as successful, these don’t seem like big numbers to me.

Maybe the sequel will do $1B in 3-4 years (and then people will complain about originality lol.)

Hoppers is not getting big numbers, historically. If you look at it historically, it's actually quite disappointing for Pixar over the past few decades, even without adjusting for the inflation of the past 5 years.

This is when I wish The Numbers site would finally get fully back online, as it would be easy to go there and pull together a compare/contrast data set of previous Pixar releases. But today they at least updated their overseas box office from this past weekend, and fine tuned their domestic box office down to the exact dollar.

Hoppers now sits at $298 Million globally, after a full month (four weekends) in global theaters. Hoppers had a production budget of $150 Million, so it needs to get to $375 Million at the box office before it can simply break even. It's already been a month, and it's still got $75 Million to go to break even.

Historically for Pixar, this is not a stellar performance. I think it's safe to say there will not be a Hoppers 2: Even More Hop.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[DKampy]

Well, probably for the best. Did she make her costume herself? Did Mom help? It's not something available in stores really.

Her Mom definitely would never… for reasons too depressing to get into here…. Her parents are divorced…. Not sure if Avatar costumes are available in stores or not…. As a childless adult…. I don’t often peruse the kid aisles unless looking for a B-day gift for my Nieces and Nephews…. But the costumes are available to order online… which is what her Dad did

 

[Stripes]

Historically for Pixar, this is not a stellar performance. I think it's safe to say there will not be a Hoppers 2: Even More Hop.

Does it make sense to compare Hoppers’ performance to historical box office outside of an analysis of the industry wide decline in box office performance for original projects? Should we factor in the value of the streaming rights into the profitability discussion?

Hoppers had a production budget of $150 Million, so it needs to get to $375 Million at the box office before it can simply break even. It's already been a month, and it's still got $75 Million to go to break even.

Films don’t necessarily have to breakeven at the box office alone given that the streaming rights are quite lucrative. But these family animated films have also had really strong legs at the box office, a trend that has continued with Hoppers.

 

[Nevermore525]

Does it make sense to compare Hoppers’ performance to historical box office outside of an analysis of the industry wide decline in box office performance for original projects? Should we factor in the value of the streaming rights into the profitability discussion?

It doesn’t, especially when all original animation features released across all MPA studios haven’t broken $500M at the global box office since Coco in 2017.

Streaming provides a higher direct revenue to the companies as does the direct digital sales

 

[TP2000]

Happy Easter, gang!
I hope everyone has a wonderful Easter weekend, or Passover, and your outfit looks fabulous for the parade!

Here's Box Office from Thursday, previewing how this Easter weekend will look theatrically. It seems Super Mario is going to be big, and that Hoppers run as the only family movie is now over. Will Hoppers get to $375 Million globally and break even? Stay tuned.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Pizza Moon]

Elio cries silently in the corner.

Not going to lie, I just watched Elio and thought it was a really solid, extremely creative movie.

Pixar needs to be “prestige” like Wall-E, and while this wasn’t that it really does make me feel that the worst of Disney’s issues came about Pre-COVID and during COVID.

This 4-5 years later it makes sense that we’re getting a noticeable average uptick in quality.

Though I also watched Monsters Inc. and Monsters University today, and I didn’t realize Pete Doctor didn’t write it and that Andrew Stanton did instead, which makes me feel that Toy Story 5 is probably only being made because they have a killer script.

Make anything: originals, sequels, remakes, prequels, reimagings, just do them well and without forcing anything.

But shoot for the stars. Sometimes you have misfires, other times solid films like Elio or Cruella, and other times you get masterpieces like Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Curse of the Black Pearl, and The Incredibles.

 

[Pizza Moon]

It doesn’t, especially when all original animation features released across all MPA studios haven’t broken $500M at the global box office since Coco in 2017.

Streaming provides a higher direct revenue to the companies as does the direct digital sales

I genuinely think that’s more due to quality than anything.

I actually liked Elio a lot, but if it was Wall-E good, do we really think it doesn’t make more?

Marketing is the big thing in the end for these movies and I think they did Hoppers WAY better than Elio, but while these movies are better they need to bring it up a notch to their 2000s era so they market themselves. Up only became a Blockbuster because it har aspects they were just so high-concept; really hard to do, but it can be done.

If they’re going for startup culture style again and aren’t scared of risk, AND are willing to fire creatives who refuse to go along with better approaches and worship the process, they just might.

 

[Nevermore525]

I genuinely think that’s more due to quality than anything.

I actually liked Elio a lot, but if it was Wall-E good, do we really think it doesn’t make more?

I don’t in the current climate of audiences until shown otherwise. Elemental is one of the worst rated of the animated Originals from WDAS/Pixar since Coco and it’s currently the highest grossing original animated film since.

The only original animated film from WDAS/Pixar to rate lower than Elemental post Coco on both Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic is Wish.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I actually liked Elio a lot, but if it was Wall-E good, do we really think it doesn’t make more?

I liked Elio also but with the exception of a couple sequels Pixar hasn’t come anywhere near the “emotions” that made their early films so amazing.

I think that’s where Pixar truly shines, the beginning of UP, Riley returning home and apologizing in Inside Out, Woody saying goodbye… there’s a lot of early Pixar films that still choke me up every time I watch them, and many I’ve seen dozens of times and they still get me. Other than a couple sequels I can’t remember the last time a Pixar film got me in the feels.