Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Pizza Moon]

I’ve been monitoring these trailer records for a while now and do think they at least translate well for awareness and excitement. Therefore big openings.

I didn’t process that it doubled the previous record holder, wow. Yes, the *potential* seems very much there for this to be on the crazier side.

I don’t know if I underestimated Avengers now, since there is crossover and there are a few pillars of Marvel that are still on fire.

Doomsday and Spider-Man were always billion dollar movies.

As long as they’re at least mid and not abominations and marketed well their floor is Fire and Ash.

Mando is what’s insane. The marketing has been a joke and they ruined the Mando franchise so good will is just gone even if we forget Star Wars’ brand issues as a whole. I think Star Fighter will make a lot more despite it being new, if it’s Rogue One good at least, which is wild. Merch wise Grogu probably wins though.

Remember guys, the duo behind Spider-Verse/Project Hail Mary was FIRED from Solo. It may have ended up as one of the best Star Wars films and actually broke even, but they blew up its budget with midness.

Lucasfilm has been run by hacks, Marvel’s mandate to over produce content was more of a Disney issue than Marvel itself. Though Lucasfilm has higher highs than Marvel when they really want to take risks.

 

[Pizza Moon]

So far I'm liking what I see. The new graphics and formatting they've chosen is a really nice upgrade.

I don't need much from them; just current box office stats, and historical data on past movies, which I'm sure they'll still provide. And if they can automatically adjust it for inflation, that's a huge bonus. They're working on it, that's for sure.

I can only imagine how many late night pizzas and cases of beer those kids have ordered in the past two weeks!

Their new way of showing how a debut movie could/should perform at the box office is incredibly helpful! This one is for Project Hail Mary, and sadly they were deep into their rebuilding phase when Hoppers came out so they didn't have it for that Pixar release.

But this sort of pre-opening summary from The Numbers will make for interesting conversation this summer when we get to Burbank's big budget tent poles.

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In wonder if you can feed like Grok API with data from Numbers as it comes in. Could make for some excellent forecasting when paired with live X trends.

 

[BrianLo]

Hoppers assuming normal 3X legs, mostly to show it doesn’t have 3X legs.

Week One: 88M, implying 264M total
Week Two: 164.7M (+76.7M), implying 320.8M
Week Three: 242.6M (+77.9M), implying 398.4M

I don’t have a great way of figuring this out apart to say the current legs clearly seem to be at least 5X opening (440M+).

Assuming this momentum does not continue out of Spring break and with Mario, a future 4X assumption from this weekend would land at 474.5M. Ongoing 5X-like holds (aka 6X of opening) brings us above 500M.

 

[TP2000]

At brunch earlier today with some like-minded gentlemen, it was unanimously decided by the table that Ryan Gosling should portray every astronaut in every movie about a handsome astronaut.

Box office is out (barely, as The Numbers site is still crawling back to life) for this weekend. Hoppers was in second place behind the Ryan In Space movie.

Also, a new horror movie from Disney's Searchlight, Ready or Not 2 had a weak 4th place opening with $9 Million. But don't fret, according to Google the movie was made on a shoestring budget of only $14 Million, so there's a good chance it will make a couple million for Burbank by the end of April.

 

[Phroobar]

So with Mario Galaxy coming out April 1st, will Hoppers break even?

 

[Pizza Moon]

It’s what happens when you focus on quality above all else, writing, cinematography, ALSO GREAT CASTING.

Nothing, I mean nothing is forced. I have a good feeling cinema is moving in this direction.

 

[Pizza Moon]

So with Mario Galaxy coming out April 1st, will Hoppers break even?

With VOD and frankly being huge on Disney+ it will be totally fine regardless of what happens.

Since it didn’t flop and didn’t cost a billion dollars to make I think Disney is happy even if it’s just shy in its theatrical run for what is a B-movie for Pixar, and totally original.

 

[brideck]

It’s what happens when you focus on quality above all else, writing, cinematography,

I mean, it also helps that it is an extremely popular book as far as books go, so it has name recognition going for it. And the marketing has also leaned heavily into "from the writer of The Martian," etc. So to say it's this genuinely original movie that's doing gangbusters at the box office is not entirely true.

Adapting popular novels has really become the domain of series television of late (where it honestly generally fits better from a story perspective), so it'll be interesting to see if things like this and the ongoing series of Hunger Games movies/books help move the needle on that at all.

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

So with Mario Galaxy coming out April 1st, will Hoppers break even?

Almost certainly yes. It hasn't even released in every market it's slated for yet (though I think of those only one is a big one). I don't think it's going to hit Elemental's total, but it'll be a solid success for Pixar nonetheless. It would have to absolutely crater now to not hit it's theoretical breakeven point, and while Mario will eat into it, it won't devour it to that degree. I'm personally predicting a $400-$425 million finish.

 

[Willmark]

The change is remarkable, because they seem to be trying to sabotage their own industry and its biggest night.

The data is most telling.

While the country added 80 Million citizens the last 30 years, the show lost over two thirds of its viewership. And relevancy.

1996 - 45 million viewers = 17% of US population
2006 - 36 million viewers = 12% of US population
2016 - 34 million viewers = 10% of US population
2026 - 18 million viewers = 5% of US population

They also do themselves no favors by nominating niche movies that few people have ever seen for Best Picture, Best Actress, Actor, Director, etc.

In 1998 the Oscars was celebrating perhaps the last great American blockbuster, Titanic, and the viewership for that show boomed as America tuned in to see if Titanic and its stars would take home the statues. They did, and America tuned in!

1998 - 57 Million viewers = 20% of US population

The best analogy I can think of is Detroit and the auto industry. Up until the 1970s Detroit was nearly unassailable in terms of automotive dominance.

Now a shell of itself as it became one of many places that make autos worldwide.

Now apply that to Hollywood. There is nothing there that is required to make movies or entertainment. And now like the auto industry before it, it faces worldwide pressures.

And in AI and the stances of Hollywood actors? Not a good long term outlook.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The best analogy I can think of is Detroit and the auto industry. Up until the 1970s Detroit was nearly unassailable in terms of automotive dominance.

Now a shell of itself as it became one of many places that make autos worldwide.

Now apply that to Hollywood. There is nothing there that is required to make movies or entertainment. And now like the auto industry before it, it faces worldwide pressures.

And in AI and the stances of Hollywood actors? Not a good long term outlook.

Great analogy, they really do mirror each other in many ways, the auto industry consolidated into a few major players, the same is happening in Hollywood, local municipalities added costs that made other areas more appealing, seeing the same in Hollywood, and strong unions could shut the whole thing down on at any time which made other areas more appealing, which we’re also seeing in Hollywood… consolidation of power into a few businesses, local policies that drive up costs and time, and strong unions that can shut the whole system down whenever they feel like it. It’s a recipe for disaster and also change.

I don’t think Hollywood will see the same fall as Detroit but I also don’t think they’ll ever be dominant like they once were, instead of being the only place to do the work they are just one of many areas now.

 

[DKampy]

The focus is always on consolidating major studios…. But there seems to be some independent studios(Neon, A24)that appear to be gaining more ground year after year

 

[Phroobar]

I can see the small media companies start to make headway too. Distribution channels are starting to open up. Iron Lung was the first of that.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The focus is always on consolidating major studios…. But there seems to be some independent studios(Neon, A24)that appear to be gaining more ground year after year

Well, we're down to only three "major studios" now.

1. Disney, including: ABC, Fox, Lucasfilm, Pixar, Marvel, ESPN, et al.
2. Paramount/Skydance/WB, including: CBS, CNN, HBO, DC comics, Paramount+, et al.
3. Comcast, including NBC, Universal, Illumination, DreamWorks, Peacock, et al.

There's no more consolidation left except to gobble up Sony and Lionsgate and a bunch of small, independent studios, like A24.


Then there's the Big Two streamers which compete with The Big Three for in-home entertainment:

1. Netflix
2. YouTube

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, we're down to only three "major studios" now.

1. Disney, including: ABC, Fox, Lucasfilm, Pixar, Marvel, ESPN, et al.
2. Paramount/Skydance/WB, including: CBS, CNN, HBO, DC comics, Paramount+, et al.
3. Comcast, including NBC, Universal, Illumination, DreamWorks, Peacock, et al.

There's no more consolidation left except to gobble up Sony and Lionsgate and a bunch of small, independent studios, like A24.


Then there's the Big Two streamers which compete with The Big Three for in-home entertainment:

1. Netflix
2. YouTube

Don't forget Amazon, as they were the ones who put out Project Hail Mary under their MGM brand, as well as now the owners of Bond.

I suspect that Lionsgate will be gobbled up next, if Netflix was serious (which I still question) about getting into the studio business that would be the next play.

Sony/Columbia is always the outlier as there have been rumors for years that the Japan company wants to divest itself from the studio space and refocus on consumer electronics.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Almost certainly yes. It hasn't even released in every market it's slated for yet (though I think of those only one is a big one). I don't think it's going to hit Elemental's total, but it'll be a solid success for Pixar nonetheless. It would have to absolutely crater now to not hit it's theoretical breakeven point, and while Mario will eat into it, it won't devour it to that degree. I'm personally predicting a $400-$425 million finish.

If it reaches your target it's profitable, which is a big win for Pixar IMO.

 

[Willmark]

Great analogy, they really do mirror each other in many ways, the auto industry consolidated into a few major players, the same is happening in Hollywood, local municipalities added costs that made other areas more appealing, seeing the same in Hollywood, and strong unions could shut the whole thing down on at any time which made other areas more appealing, which we’re also seeing in Hollywood… consolidation of power into a few businesses, local policies that drive up costs and time, and strong unions that can shut the whole system down whenever they feel like it. It’s a recipe for disaster and also change.

I don’t think Hollywood will see the same fall as Detroit but I also don’t think they’ll ever be dominant like they once were, instead of being the only place to do the work they are just one of many areas now.

I don’t see it falling either per se, but agree that their dominance is waning.

Add in there is a multitude of different types of entertainment all competing for the customers dollar.

 

[Phroobar]

If it reaches your target it's profitable, which is a big win for Pixar IMO.

Remember the days when that was just a given? They used to be blockbusters. Now we are happy if they make at least a dollar in profit.

 

[Nevermore525]

Remember the days when that was just a given? They used to be blockbusters. Now we are happy if they make at least a dollar in profit.

People have essentially stopped going to original animation after 2019. They now flock to safer prospects like sequels or well established IPs.

ETA: Could adjust that to say most audiences have abandoned original films entirely. Elemental at $496M highest grossing original film of the 2020s.

 

[DKampy]

Remember the days when that was just a given? They used to be blockbusters. Now we are happy if they make at least a dollar in profit.

Since Covid there is no guarantee any film of any studio will become a blockbuster