Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

Yes, if it keeps it current box office for the next month or two it will crawl to $1.5

Wasn't it only a month or two that some were screeching about $2B+

Cameron himself told Variety that it needed to make $1.5 just to break even...

No one ever said Fire and Ash would make 2 billion….even before the movie was released

 

[monothingie]

No one ever said Fire and Ash would make 2 billion….even before the movie was released

Blah blah blah. You guys all practically wet yourselves at how great it was going to do and yet this happened. If Cameron is to be believed, the thing still hasn’t even broken even yet. And that wouldn’t even include marketing.

 

[Disney Irish]

Thanks to the holdovers from the holidays Disney has already hit $1B WW -

Disney First Studio To Pass $1B WW YTD In A Weekend Led By ‘Wuthering Heights’; ‘Goat’ Scores $48M, ‘Crime 101’ Arrests $30M – Global Box Office

Worlwide box office report has Disney the first studio to cross $1B at global box office, 'Wuthering Heights' opens to $82M, 'Goat' to $48M and 'Crime 101' Near $30M.

deadline.com

Now I'm always one for saying keep each totals in the calendar year they are released, but its impressive Disney already made it to $1B.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, if it keeps it current box office for the next month or two it will crawl to $1.5

Wasn't it only a month or two that some were screeching about $2B+

Cameron himself told Variety that it needed to make $1.5 just to break even...

Blah blah blah. You guys all practically wet yourselves at how great it was going to do and yet this happened. If Cameron is to be believed, the thing still hasn’t even broken even yet. And that wouldn’t even include marketing.

Cameron didn't tell Variety anything. Variety referenced a GQ interview that Cameron did back in 2022 about ALL the Avatar movies but was talking about WoW at the time, not this one specifically, so they took it out of context. It was a reference to the entire box office, and how its really hard to justify movies like Avatar in the market we are in today when they have to clear over $1B to be profitable. So really this was about whether or not Avatar 3, 4 and 5 would be made, not whether Fire and Ash would be profitable.

Here is the Variety article -

‘Avatar’s’ Costly Sequels Are Getting Harder to Justify. Will James Cameron Make Two More?

"Avatar" is among the biggest film franchises of all time. But diminishing returns and exorbitant costs mean sequels are getting harder to justify.

variety.com

So he never really said Fire and Ash had to clear $1.5B to be breakeven, that was Variety making that comment based on what Cameron said in general about Avatar, which they actually misquoted because he never actually gave a number in that article about any breakeven figure.

Here is Deadlines actual reporting of the same at the time back in early 2023 after WoW released -

"The 3x Oscar winning filmmaker also clarified statements he made to GQ magazine: He told them back in November that the sequel would need to be the third or fourth highest-grossing movie in history just to “break even”. Those pics all grossed over $2 billion worldwide.

Cameron told Wallace, “I never actually gave it a number. I said it would has to be among the highest-grossing films in history and somebody else applied that number and it got picked up. The number is actually less.”

James Cameron Says ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Will Break Even, Paving Way For Future Sequels Release

'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Break Even Per James Cameron, Paving Way For Sequels

deadline.com

So this is all really just a bunch of misquotes and it keeps getting picked up and reused in some attempt to bring down Cameron, Disney, and Avatar.

And for reference here is the original GQ article -

The Return of James Cameron, Box Office King

It’s been 13 years since James Cameron released 'Avatar,' the highest-grossing movie of all time. Now, the director is back with a deeply personal sequel—and the reasonable expectation that it could be the biggest thing he’s done yet.

www.gq.com

 

[Animaniac93-98]

- Avatar 3 inching to $1.5B WW

But still just short of $400 million domestically, which I find so interesting.

After 59 days Way of Water had made $647 million

 

[Nevermore525]

But still just short of $400 million domestically, which I find so interesting.

After 59 days Way of Water had made $647 million

Difference between an event film following a reopening of theaters with a decade+ gap between the original, and a sequel that followed similar story beats to WoW and only releases a few years later.

Novelty factor adds that boost to WoW

 

[monothingie]

Cameron didn't tell Variety anything. Variety referenced a GQ interview that Cameron did back in 2022 about ALL the Avatar movies but was talking about WoW at the time, not this one specifically, so they took it out of context. It was a reference to the entire box office, and how its really hard to justify movies like Avatar in the market we are in today when they have to clear over $1B to be profitable. So really this was about whether or not Avatar 3, 4 and 5 would be made, not whether Fire and Ash would be profitable.

Here is the Variety article -

‘Avatar’s’ Costly Sequels Are Getting Harder to Justify. Will James Cameron Make Two More?

"Avatar" is among the biggest film franchises of all time. But diminishing returns and exorbitant costs mean sequels are getting harder to justify.

variety.com

So he never really said Fire and Ash had to clear $1.5B to be breakeven, that was Variety making that comment based on what Cameron said in general about Avatar, which they actually misquoted because he never actually gave a number in that article about any breakeven figure.

Here is Deadlines actual reporting of the same at the time back in early 2023 after WoW released -

"The 3x Oscar winning filmmaker also clarified statements he made to GQ magazine: He told them back in November that the sequel would need to be the third or fourth highest-grossing movie in history just to “break even”. Those pics all grossed over $2 billion worldwide.

Cameron told Wallace, “I never actually gave it a number. I said it would has to be among the highest-grossing films in history and somebody else applied that number and it got picked up. The number is actually less.”

James Cameron Says ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Will Break Even, Paving Way For Future Sequels Release

'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Break Even Per James Cameron, Paving Way For Sequels

deadline.com

So this is all really just a bunch of misquotes and it keeps getting picked up and reused in some attempt to bring down Cameron, Disney, and Avatar.

And for reference here is the original GQ article -

The Return of James Cameron, Box Office King

It’s been 13 years since James Cameron released 'Avatar,' the highest-grossing movie of all time. Now, the director is back with a deeply personal sequel—and the reasonable expectation that it could be the biggest thing he’s done yet.

www.gq.com

Sure whatever cope you want to throw at it.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sure whatever cope you want to throw at it.

Not cope, the movie will make whatever it'll make and Disney will determine whether that is enough for further movies in the franchise or not. As none of us here know what Disney's and Cameron's "real number" is, so it really could be much lower than anyone here thinks.

I'm just making sure that whatever is being "quoted" is actually what was said and not spin to fit whatever narrative you're trying to throw out this week.

 

[Disney Irish]

And in other news, it appears that WBD might be reopening negotiations with Paramount after they get pressure from many of the larger shareholders after the amended bid by Paramount last week -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-15/warner-bros-weighs-reopening-sale-negotiations-with-paramount

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warner-bros-weighs-reopening-sale-195058251.html?guccounter=1

 

[monothingie]

Not cope, the movie will make whatever it'll make and Disney will determine whether that is enough for further movies in the franchise or not. As none of us here know what Disney's and Cameron's "real number" is, so it really could be much lower than anyone here thinks.

Or it could be much higher. The bottom line is the movie underperformed severely, no matter how much you or others here ignore that.

I'm just making sure that whatever is being "quoted" is actually what was said and not spin to fit whatever narrative you're trying to throw out this week.

As opposed to pretending how great this sequel was? Really?

 

[Disney Irish]

Or it could be much higher. The bottom line is the movie underperformed severely, no matter how much you or others here ignore that.

Underperformed in comparison to what? The previous two? That was always going to be a tough hill to claim. I don't think anyone here ever seriously claimed it was going to beat either of the previous two. And really I don't think anyone in the industry, even Disney, ever seriously thought that either.

As opposed to pretending how great this sequel was? Really?

Who is pretending? The movie has done well, whether its well enough to get Disney to continue with 4 and 5 remains to be seen, but its done well nonetheless. I don't think anyone here has said its done "great".

But again that wasn't the point, the point was that you are pushing misinformation about what Cameron actually said, and I was just correcting it. Get incensed about that all you want, but that is the long and short of it.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The movie has done well, whether its well enough to get Disney to continue with 4 and 5 remains to be seen, but its done well nonetheless.

I think a 4th is guaranteed at this point, Cameron has said he wants to move on to other projects though so my guess is he’ll push for #4 being the last and conclude the story. I suspect Disney will push for a 5th, and probably more, I think Disney (both the studios and D+) needs Avatar more than Cameron does.

Netflix has had great success with their Jurassic cartoon series, I think Avatar would be a great setting for Disney and D+ to do something similar. That would be easier to continue without Camerons direct input also.

In many ways Cameron reminds me of Iger at this point, he’s wealthy beyond what he could ever spend, is a household name, has reached the pinnacle of his field, and isn’t getting any younger… at some point it makes more sense to retire and have fun, or at the very least just make passion projects, over continuing to grind out films simply to finish them.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think a 4th is guaranteed at this point, Cameron has said he wants to move on to other projects though so my guess is he’ll push for #4 being the last and conclude the story. I suspect Disney will push for a 5th, and probably more, I think Disney (both the studios and D+) needs Avatar more than Cameron does.

Netflix has had great success with their Jurassic cartoon series, I think Avatar would be a great setting for Disney and D+ to do something similar. That would be easier to continue without Camerons direct input also.

In many ways Cameron reminds me of Iger at this point, he’s wealthy beyond what he could ever spend, is a household name, has reached the pinnacle of his field, and isn’t getting any younger… at some point it makes more sense to retire and have fun, or at the very least just make passion projects, over continuing to grind out films simply to finish them.

Agreed for the most part, I think it’s more about whether Cameron thinks he can finish up the story in one movie or if it needs two. They could also do one big final movie and split it, like a part 1 and part 2. That way they still get a “4” and “5” but only requires Cameron for one.

 

[Nevermore525]

With 4 and 5 potentially being two parts of one story much like WoW and Fire and Ash turned out to be could see him just agreeing to make a 4th that combines the two and makes a conclusion arc for most of what’s left open ended.

Really as previously mentioned is up to what Cameron and Disney communicate. But nearly $4B in box office plus any PVOD sales or streaming boosts, and whatever boost Avatar had on Animal Kingdom to justify the creation of a second themed area in Disneyland, would give more to Disney being rather satisfied with the series regardless of whatever underperformance is being put on Fire and Ash.

 

[BrianLo]

Reminder that I thought it would do 1.7B after the opening, another contingent thought it couldn’t do 1 and wouldn’t be successful until it hit 1.2-1.3B.

Then I was the one being accused of shifting my goalposts.

Anywho, the hold was certainly not worthy of the Avatar brand, funnily enough Zootopia 2 had the holds well beyond even our most optimistics takes at the time.

I don’t think they tell Cameron to shrink it into one film, he can’t, he’s already filmed a third of it. If it were up to me I’d just bite the bullet and pay for both. 5 will naturally have a bump and if they eat it a bit on 4, who cares. They throw money at far more stupid productions than allowing James to finish his magnum opus.

 

[TP2000]

Seriously, who the heck was in charge of scheduling for February?!? First they tried to start the Olympics the same weekend as the Super Bowl, then they paired up Valentine's Day with President's Day Weekend?!?

Although we won't know until tomorrow as today is the Holiday, domestic box office for this weekend was understandably strong overall. No huge blockbusters making records, just a strong holiday weekend overall.

Zootopia 2, of course, keeps chugging along now into its 4th month in theaters!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 20, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 20, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

WBD has reopened talks with Paramount, and Paramount has upped their offer to $31/share to reopen the talks, but it’s not its best and final offer and is willing to increase more if needed -

Warner Board Says Paramount Agreed To Raise Offer To $31 A Share Or More If Two Sides Engaged

Warner Bros. Discovery said Paramount agreed to raise its $30 a share cash offer if WBD agreed to talks, which it has.

deadline.com

WBD has also set a shareholder vote for March 20th.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Saw an early screening of Crime 101 last week. They had a live stream from California afterwards with Thor, Storm, and the director.

Kinda cool.

Sorry to be contrary, but I believe the wardrobe malfunction generated more "discussion" than anything to date.

The only halftime show after which, I involuntarily stood up and applauded!

How about The Hudson Brothers, Shields and Yarnell, and the Brady Bunch kids... with a surprise cameo of Cher and Tim Conway?

All day long.

A twenty-song medley by Donald Duck.

‘Murica: “That’s not English!”

Side note: I’m selling muchos discos de Bad Bunny.

 

[Fox&Hound]

Anyone else excited for Scream 7? I feel like the advertising has really shown up for this film and it seems like there is a good buzz for it. I don’t expect crazy huge numbers but maybe a franchise best for a Scream film.

 

[coffeefan]

WBD has reopened talks with Paramount, and Paramount has upped their offer to $31/share to reopen the talks, but it’s not its best and final offer and is willing to increase more if needed -

Warner Board Says Paramount Agreed To Raise Offer To $31 A Share Or More If Two Sides Engaged

Warner Bros. Discovery said Paramount agreed to raise its $30 a share cash offer if WBD agreed to talks, which it has.

deadline.com

WBD has also set a shareholder vote for March 20th.