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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
coffeefan said:
WB now doesn't even average 45-day windows. It would be silly to expect that.
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45 days is what theater owners want, like AMC. So make it somewhere between 30-45 days, which is where most WB movies fall now anyways, and that is still better than the 3-6 days that Netflix does now for the movies they do release to theaters.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DKampy said:
I don’t trust Netflix and as a company has shown their disdain for theaters several times over the years and very well could knock the window down to 17 days…. However I think the main point is a comment was made in 1 article of a possibility…. Then certain individuals start spouting it off as hard facts to fit their Hollywood needs to burn narrative… it is all about fact checking
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Well…theaters have always been directly opposed to both versions of Netflix’s only business models…to be fair
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
D

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
I have no issue saying that the Deadline quote is being taken out of context. But its not for no reason, and its because of Netflix's long history of having disdain for theatrical made verbal by their CEO.

So for me its a "show me you've changed not just tell me" scenario. If you really are serious about theatrical now, how about start releasing some of your upcoming Netflix movies into theaters for a longer than a weekend or two. For example their upcoming Peaky Blinders movie coming out on March 6th, how about giving it a full theatrical release with a 45 day window and wait to put it on Netflix in late April instead of March 20th. Or even the upcoming January 16th Ben Affleck and Matt Damon movie called The Rip which is a Netflix exclusive, why not release that to theaters, its not like there is anything major coming out for January anyways.
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Oh I agree with you about Netflix,.., if they were that interested theatrical Frankenstein and the Knives Out sequel would of been given more significance time in theaters… which both had a decent potential of box office success

At the same time I don’t appreciate people jumping on any side comments just to assist in the grifting
 
Tony the Tigger

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
But that limits the box office potential of movies then. Because if any of the previous Netflix releases to theaters are any indication, that is a WHOLE lot of money left on the table. Take for example Stranger Things finale, that earned a supposed $25M this weekend, putting it at number 2 for the weekend ahead of Z2. Imagine now if that was in theaters for longer than this weekend, that would potentially be $50-100M or more they could have gotten had they done a full release where its not also on Netflix or quickly will be.

So FOMO only works with event films, and most of WB content released to theaters, even DC, are not event films. So they will be losing a lot of theatrical revenue, in favor of pushing it to Netflix.
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Exactly - but the FOMO will be real on every title.

If they put out a Star Wars movie (thank goodness they won’t) people would go nuts to get tickets because there will only be X number of tickets for 17 days.

After that - you have to pay for Netflix.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Tony the Tigger said:
Exactly - but the FOMO will be real on every title.

If they put out a Star Wars movie (thank goodness they won’t) people would go nuts to get tickets because there will only be X number of tickets for 17 days.

After that - you have to pay for Netflix.
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Again that is an example of an event film, that isn't going to happen with every title, sorry to break that to you.

We have real world examples of Netflix already putting stuff out for less than 17 days and that isn't garnering that FOMO you're saying will happen. For example Frankenstein just a few months ago made ~$480K, you read that right, $480,000, not even breaking $1 Million against a $120M budget. And that is for a well received movie, so now imagine one that isn't as well received. So no FOMO isn't going to work for every title, it doesn't now and it won't in a smaller theatrical window either.

So yeah its going to cause audiences to just wait it out, and a 17 day window will just make that easier.
 
Tony the Tigger

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
Again that is an example of an event film, that isn't going to happen with every title, sorry to break that to you.

We have real world examples of Netflix already putting stuff out for less than 17 days and that isn't garnering that FOMO you're saying will happen. For example Frankenstein just a few months ago made ~$480K, you read that right, $480,000, not even breaking $1 Million against a $120M budget. And that is for a well received movie, so now imagine one that isn't as well received. So no FOMO isn't going to work for every title, it doesn't now and it won't in a smaller theatrical window either.

So yeah its going to cause audiences to just wait it out, and a 17 day window will just make that easier.
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You’re looking at it through the prism of today. I didn’t even know Frankenstein was in theaters. I heard it was a Netflix movie and assumed it was on Netflix.

Once the public is aware of what’s going on (if it comes to pass) and once the first movie is sold out before it opens, you will see more presales.

The fastest way to sell something is to tell people it’s limited.

Even if it only sells out on weekends - there are only 2 weekends.

Do the math on how many seats are available in a typical wide release in 2 weekends. That will be the only opportunity for many people.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Tony the Tigger said:
You’re looking at it through the prism of today. I didn’t even know Frankenstein was in theaters. I heard it was a Netflix
movie and assumed it was on Netflix.
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This is the point, you heard it was on Netflix and just assumed that is where to watch it. Why would you think the public would be any different with any other movie. Once they hear something will just be available in a few weeks on Netflix why would they just all of a sudden run out to theaters?

Tony the Tigger said:
Once the public is aware of what’s going on (if it comes to pass) and once the first movie is sold out before it opens, you will see more presales.

The fastest way to sell something is to tell people it’s limited.

Even if it only sells out on weekends - there are only 2 weekends.

Do the math on how many seats are available in a typical wide release in 2 weekends. That will be the only opportunity for many people.
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You're putting a lot of faith in a public that has already shown they are willing to wait for a majority of movies to make their way to their various streaming services or digital in a couple months. This is why the box office has still yet to recover from the pandemic. So why would they all of a sudden will they be running to theaters when those movies hit their various streaming services or digital faster?

Human nature being what it is, once a habit sets in its very hard to break, ie once the audience is trained to just wait for most movies to go to streaming they won't just start going back to theaters just because Netflix now owns WB.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Because this one won't be included in the 2025 Box Office Recap as it was released so late in the year and the majority of its box office will come in during 2026, I thought I should put this here.

And I forgot how expensive these Avatar movies are! $400 Million a pop?!? What was that snack table like on set, I wonder?

Avatar 3: A Planet Without Merchandise is notably under performing the last one from 2023. Especially domestically. Currently Avatar 3 has only sold just over one third of the domestic tickets that Avatar 2 did. Even with a healthy leg out through January, it might not make it to half the domestic box office as the previous one.

And as I look at that empty plot of land in DCA's Hollywood Land, this box office data makes me think. Hmm.... 🧐

Screenshot 2026-01-07 3.38.50 PM.png


www.the-numbers.com

Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
TP2000 said:
Because this one won't be included in the 2025 Box Office Recap as it was released so late in the year and the majority of its box office will come in during 2026, I thought I should put this here.

And I forgot how expensive these Avatar movies are! $400 Million a pop?!? What was that snack table like on set, I wonder?

Avatar 3: A Planet Without Merchandise is notably under performing the last one from 2023. Especially domestically. Currently Avatar 3 has only sold just over one third of the domestic tickets that Avatar 2 did. Even with a healthy leg out through January, it might not make it to half the domestic box office as the previous one.

And as I look at that empty plot of land in DCA's Hollywood Land, this box office data makes me think. Hmm.... 🧐

View attachment 901592

www.the-numbers.com

Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
Click to expand...

Imagine calling a $1.1B movie "underperforming" with a straight face, especially with almost 2 months left to go in its box office run.

I think everyone here has already commented and agreed that it'll make less than Avatar 2, especially domestically. But is that really that surprising? For one we've been talking all year about how much of the domestic box office is flat at best, and down at worst. For a second most sequels come under their predecessors in a franchise, its very rare for a sequel let alone a 3rd to outperform the previous entries.

So really this isn't that big of a "story" or even interesting take.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Hiya, gang! Everyone recovered? I still have a hankering for Aunt Ingrid's glogg, but otherwise I'm back at it!

Here's the 2025 Burbank Box Office Recap, using the Metric 🇨🇦 system where we take the production budget and multiply it by 2.5 to find the break even dollar figure, then subtract the global box office tally and divide that by two to achieve the profit or loss for Burbank's coterie of studios.

Top line info for 2025 is that The Walt Disney Company had a combined profit of $327 Million (and still rising from Zootopia 2) for its movies released in 2025.

The glaring thing about '25 here is that just two movies (Lilo & Stitch and Zootopia 2) with relatively modest budgets raked in huge profits that help paper over the more than $600 Million lost from a half dozen bombs. And Rachel Zegler's Snow White goes down in '25 history as a textbook case of how not to remake a beloved classic, and then how not to publicize it on powerful Social Media to potential global audiences who then mostly stayed away from Beijing to Baltimore. Oof!

Captain America, Brave New World: $180 Production, $414 Box Office = $19 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White: $270 Production, $206 Box Office = $235 Million Loss (Oof!)
The Amateur: $60 Production, $96 Box Office = $27 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $382 Box Office = $34 Million Loss
Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production, $1,038 Box Office = $367 Million Profit (!!!)
Elio: $150 Production, $152 Box Office = $112 Million Loss
The Fantastic Four, First Steps: $200 Production, $507 Box Office = $4 Million Profit
Freakier Friday: $42 Production, $153 Box Office = $24 Million Profit
The Roses: $20 Production, $52 Box Office = $1 Million Profit
Tron Ares: $180 Production, $142 Box Office = $154 Million Loss
Zootopia 2: $180 Production, $1594 Box Office = $572 Million Profit (And Counting!!!)
Ella McCay: $35 Production, $5 Box Office = $41 Million Loss
Screenshot 2026-01-07 4.24.27 PM.png

Screenshot 2026-01-07 4.24.57 PM.png

Screenshot 2026-01-07 4.28.09 PM.png

www.the-numbers.com

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
 
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