Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Serpico Jones]

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Wicked has crossed $500 million, and is still beating Zootopia domestically. I know that won’t hold up, but I think somebody should be happy with these numbers.

I saw it in theaters twice. Not ruling out a third time before it’s gone. Might see avatar today or tomorrow.

Someone asked about the new Timothée Chalamet movie. I don’t know. I saw the preview and thought they were getting awfully worked up over ping-pong lol. We’ll see.

 

[BrianLo]

Wicked has crossed $500 million, and is still beating Zootopia domestically. I know that won’t hold up, but I think somebody should be happy with these numbers.

I saw it in theaters twice. Not ruling out a third time before it’s gone. Might see avatar today or tomorrow.

You seem to be a bit more of the exception, it generally does not seem to be getting the repeat buisness of the first and hit a wall.

They are happy with it, but it’s not a solid foundation to launch a franchise without pre-existing material. Any sequel with the entire cast starts from a weakened third film backslide. If it’s without the cast, that strikes me as DOA. Particularly since this franchise only appeases English language audiences.

I have to figure they are re-evaluating their plans, but I’m not an exec. The upside is that’s a really good original film and plays out like Mufasa, maybe shedding 50% of the originals take towards 350-400. The downside is it does a Through the looking glass and meagrely flops around 150.

 

[Disney Analyst]

So … Fire and Ash 1 billion as soon as Friday potentially?

 

[Serpico Jones]

Disney is going to want to preserve Jim Cameron’s brain in a cyborg body to continue making Avatar movies forever.

 

[coffeefan]

Surprised we didn't get Aladdin sequels.

 

[Disney Irish]

French Box Office Posts 13.6% Drop In Admissions For 2025 With U.S. Movies & Arthouse Titles Winners In Complex Year

French Box Office Posts 13.6% Drop In Admissions For 2025 With U.S. Movies & Arthouse Titles Winners In Complex Year

deadline.com

 

[Disney Irish]

So to wrap up the year looking at the box office....

2025 domestic will be basically flat when looking at all releases including 2024 holdovers -

When backing out 2024 holdovers and looking at just 2025 releases 2025 will be down -

So this wasn't the year of recovery that many here were expecting. And unless things change 2026 doesn't look to be much better either.

But on a positive note to end the year, Disney is the number 1 studio again, yay!

 

[Stripes]

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

But on a positive note to end the year, Disney is the number 1 studio again, yay!

At the beginning of the year I thought Universal may be the one to give Disney some competition but it looks like it ended up being Warner Bros, nowhere near the total box office but I think they are pretty close on profit.

The cool thing is they did it primarily on new moves instead of sequels like Disney and Universal.

 

[BrianLo]

So to wrap up the year looking at the box office....

2025 domestic will be basically flat when looking at all releases including 2024 holdovers -

View attachment 899940

When backing out 2024 holdovers and looking at just 2025 releases 2025 will be down -

View attachment 899941

So this wasn't the year of recovery that many here were expecting. And unless things change 2026 doesn't look to be much better either.

But on a positive note to end the year, Disney is the number 1 studio again, yay!

Question- I don’t really know what is happening math wise here. When the prior year releases are dropped, are their next year grosses shifted backwards or just eliminated entirely?

I think it might be the former, in which case 2025 still has quite a bit of January and early Feb earning potential with Avatar?

 

[BrianLo]

I think between Inside Out 2 and Zoo 2, we get a few deserved reprieve years of “should both of these animated studios continue to exist”.

DreamWorks has been bumbling along forever, the last movie that grosses up over 600M is How to Train your Dragon 2 in 2014, with KFP3/4, Boss Baby and HTTYD3 in the 500’s and Last Wish in the 400’s. And 17 other movies since then that couldn’t crack 400.

I’m not advocating for DreamWorks closure, but just determining where the major studio benchmark is.

 

[Disney Irish]

At the beginning of the year I thought Universal may be the one to give Disney some competition but it looks like it ended up being Warner Bros, nowhere near the total box office but I think they are pretty close on profit.

The cool thing is they did it primarily on new moves instead of sequels like Disney and Universal.

I don't have the exact numbers, but I think WB is almost $2B behind Disney, so not even close at the box office. Profit is another story, but that is always a moving target in Hollywood which is why its never really used in any real meaningful way.

 

[Disney Irish]

Question- I don’t really know what is happening math wise here. When the prior year releases are dropped, are their next year grosses shifted backwards or just eliminated entirely?

I think it might be the former, in which case 2025 still has quite a bit of January and early Feb earning potential with Avatar?

I don't have an answer for that, I suspect its shifted backwards when looking at just the calendar releases. And remember this is only domestic, and I don't anticipate a huge swing even in January/February domestically. Internationally you might have a point though, since movies like Avatar earn heavily there.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think between Inside Out 2 and Zoo 2, we get a few deserved reprieve years of “should both of these animated studios continue to exist”.

DreamWorks has been bumbling along forever, the last movie that grosses up over 600M is How to Train your Dragon 2 in 2014, with KFP3/4, Boss Baby and HTTYD3 in the 500’s and Last Wish in the 400’s. And 17 other movies since then that couldn’t crack 400.

I’m not advocating for DreamWorks closure, but just determining where the major studio benchmark is.

I mean we have posters here advocating for merging of Disney studios like WDAS and Pixar, why not Dreamworks and Illumination too.

 

[BrianLo]

I don't have an answer for that, I suspect its shifted backwards when looking at just the calendar releases. And remember this is only domestic, and I don't anticipate a huge swing even in January/February domestically. Internationally you might have a point though, since movies like Avatar earn heavily there.

I think it must, since 2024 grosses up in the second example and had a lot of leftover play with Moana, Wicked, Mufasa and Sonic.

We should try to remember to check back in 6 weeks. Domestically it might surprise you. The math above seems to imply 2024 releases earned 508M domestically in 2025.

Moana 2, which didn’t have the greatest legs, still added 88M after Dec 31. So I’d give Z2 the edge with 100+. Avatar is going to run circles around Mufasa. It kind of comes down to the other studios product. In theory though, 2025 should overtake if I’m just looking at Disney’s holdovers.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think it must, since 2024 grosses up in the second example and had a lot of leftover play with Moana, Wicked, Mufasa and Sonic.

We should try to remember to check back in 6 weeks. Domestically it might surprise you. The math above seems to imply 2024 releases earned 508M domestically in 2025.

Moana 2, which didn’t have the greatest legs, still added 88M after Dec 31. So I’d give Z2 the edge with 100+. Avatar is going to run circles around Mufasa. It kind of comes down to the other studios product. In theory though, 2025 should overtake if I’m just looking at Disney’s holdovers.

Domestically? Moana 2 added $56M domestically from Jan 1-Apr 10 before it left theaters. Mufasa you have a slight point as it added $126M domestically from Jan 1-Apr 17 before it left theaters.

But still that isn't going to swing to it to being a huge change in the overall domestic numbers, as that isn't going to make up for $600M deficit from 2024. As I don't expect (and don't believe you do either) that Avatar, Z2 and the rest of the holdovers from 2025 are going to make up over $600M domestically between now and March/April.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I don't have the exact numbers, but I think WB is almost $2B behind Disney, so not even close at the box office. Profit is another story, but that is always a moving target in Hollywood which is why its never really used in any real meaningful way.

It is interesting, Variety’s box office report card gave Disney a B, whereas WB got the best grade of the pack at an A.

Box Office Studio Report Card: Warners’ Bets Pay Off, Disney Scores but Marvel Struggles, Tom Cruise Can’t Save Paramount

Variety assessed how studios fared at the 2025 box office after releasing films such as "Zootopia 2," "Sinners" and the new "Mission: Impossible."

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

It is interesting, Variety’s box office report card gave Disney a B, whereas WB got the best grade of the pack at an A.

Box Office Studio Report Card: Warners’ Bets Pay Off, Disney Scores but Marvel Struggles, Tom Cruise Can’t Save Paramount

Variety assessed how studios fared at the 2025 box office after releasing films such as "Zootopia 2," "Sinners" and the new "Mission: Impossible."

variety.com

They're grading based on the overall output of the year rather than just the overall box office numbers.

They even note "Disney deserves props for fielding two (and likely three after “Avatar: Fire and Ash” gets through the holiday season) billion-dollar hits, a feat that illuminates the chasm between the studio and its rivals, none of whom had a single film cross $1 billion since 2023."

Basically if you look at the output Disney puts out a lot of stuff that could be considered a failure, but when it succeeds, it does it better and greater than everyone else.

 

[BrianLo]

Domestically? Moana 2 added $56M domestically from Jan 1-Apr 10 before it left theaters.

Oops, ignore me. The Moana 2 number I pulled out my brain. I guess that was from whenever I was comparing the runs earlier this holiday season to Zootopia. Whenever the most recent conversation on Zootopia domestically was playing out I clocked I really thought it should easily have another 100M left.

As I don't expect (and don't believe you do either) that Avatar, Z2 and the rest of the holdovers from 2025 are going to make up over $600M domestically between now and March/April.

I might, but I’m really not sure?

If 2024 made 508M like it seems to imply, it is feasible. But that’s comparing a lot of product to a lot of product, so I’m not sure. December seems to be down compared to December last year. But Wicked hit its PVOD wall after New years and there’s the Avatar of it all.

I also don’t know what limited 2025 release awards play potential there is left.