Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

I’ve backtested Way of Waters Production sheets. Break even was also theatrically around 900M on that with a 400M top line production budget. Tons of participation starts at profitability.

Why these more extreme numbers warrant some fine tuning considerations? That rests on the laurels of anyone here strongly believing Avatar had a 4x marketing budget than Stitch or a 2X marketing budget than Zoo. In addition to all the other non top line production costs which are not as correlated, but rather fall into standard tentpole blockbuster norms. Maybe someone wants to make that argument, but I don’t anecdotally feel like marketing has been unexpectedly over the top here.

Zootopia 2 will probably make the company more money though, if that’s the metric one cares about. Unless I’m underestimating their respective endpoints. Which seem on a collision course to be unexpectedly close. That speaks more to Z2 being unexpectedly huge than A3 hugely missing.


I won’t prematurely parade what is very, very early in opening weekend hold data… but A3 seems to be acting like an Avatar movie.

Sunday came in better stateside with an estimated $24.5M than the $23M Disney called it at; yesterday holding at -13% from Saturday. That’s better than the -18% Saturday-to-Sunday ease on Avatar: Way of Water. International raises to $258M.

It also has the advantage of a much nicer yearly holiday calendar. With Christmas and new years mid week.

 

[DKampy]

every year we go through the same talking points with people severely underestimating the pre- Christmas releases…. Which tends to have the longest legs compared to any other time of year…. And Avatar more so… as people tend to hold off till they are able to see it on the best screen possible… I find Zootopia and Moana 2 to be odd comparisons as both of those were Thanksgiving releases rather than a weekend when people have other distractions for their final preparations of holiday celebrations… I myself am not seeing the film till Christmas Day… as that was the time that worked best for us and I go the theatre every week

People are saying the reviews have really dropped from the last film…. Is the drop off really that huge….Last I checked the Rotten Tomatoes score was 69 compared to 76% for water…it seems to be more of the same with critics feelings for the Avatar franchise… the story is lacking but the visuals make it worth it…. I don’t recall what the Audience score was for Water….. but for Fire it is 91%… so it seems to be enjoyed by the general audience

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

every year we go through the same talking points with people severely underestimating the pre- Christmas releases…. Which tends to have the longest legs compared to any other time of year…. And Avatar more so… as people tend to hold off till they are able to see it on the best screen possible… I find Zootopia and Moana 2 to be odd comparisons as both of those were Thanksgiving releases rather than a weekend when people have other distractions for their final preparations of holiday celebrations… I myself am not seeing the film till Christmas Day… as that was the time that worked best for us and I go the theatre every week

People are saying the reviews have really dropped from the last film…. Is the drop off really that huge….Last I checked the Rotten Tomatoes score was 69 compared to 76% for water…it seems to be more of the same with critics feelings for the Avatar franchise… the story is lacking but the visuals make it worth it…. I don’t recall what the Audience score was for Water….. but for Fire it is 91%… so it seems to be enjoyed by the general audience

There are very few surprises…a frequent topic that always spins. Most things end up in a certain point based on how they release

Avatar is a sort of a different case…so we can wait a see more than normal

 

[monothingie]

Funnily enough, I even put this in my prediction.

If I’ve learned nothing else, it’s that this thread severely underestimates how holiday releases work. A 1 billion struggle bus would be shocking holiday holds with these opening numbers and this franchises typical pattern.

But we saw how this played out last time. Nothing new here the only difference is that the starting point as much lower.

 

[DKampy]

There are very few surprises…a frequent topic that always spins. Most things end up in a certain point based on how they release

Avatar is a sort of a different case…so we can wait a see more than normal

Just like people calling Mufasa a complete flop last year when it only opened in the 30”s

In fact Avatar is not the only movie that opened this past weekend that I expect to hold well given the nature of this time of year… I suspect the housemaid will hold well for it’s film type

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just like people calling Mufasa a complete flop last year when it only opened in the 30”s

In fact Avatar is not the only movie that opened this past weekend that I expect to hold well given the nature of this time of year… I suspect the housemaid will hold well for it’s film type

Yeah…that’s like…the one…that has served as poster child

Think of the 3 marvels that tracked poorly and did just as poorly

 

[BrianLo]

But we saw how this played out last time. Nothing new here the only difference is that the starting point as much lower.

Precisely my point. Way of Water opened to 435M and earned a 5.33X multiple.

Fire and Ash opened to 347M, a same 5.33X multiple carries it to 1.85Billion.

 

[monothingie]

Precisely my point. Way of Water opened to 435M and earned a 5.33X multiple.

Fire and Ash opened to 347M, a same 5.33X multiple carries it to 1.85Billion.

Except it’s not gonna be anywhere close to that multiplier. With a 35% lower opening than 2 and a Monday drop that shows the legs may not be there. Most mostly because they’re gonna rush to get this to PVOD and DTC.

All you have to do is look at the trades, they’ve all but written off 2 billion and now the magic number seems to be 1.5 I bet we will see that revised downward too.

 

[Disney Irish]

Except it’s not gonna be anywhere close to that multiplier. With a 35% lower opening than 2 and a Monday drop that shows the legs may not be there. Most mostly because they’re gonna rush to get this to PVOD and DTC.

All you have to do is look at the trades, they’ve all but written off 2 billion and now the magic number seems to be 1.5 I bet we will see that revised downward too.

Why do you believe this will be rushed to PVOD/DTC? Cameron is famous for promoting a full theatrical experience. I imagine his contract guarantees a specific number of days exclusive theatrical window (90+ days) before it moves to digital. So I can’t see this moving to PVOD/DTC before March.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The Monday drop doesn’t even seem that big compared to Way of Water. It’s only like… 3 million difference?

 

[DKampy]

The Monday drop doesn’t even seem that big compared to Way of Water. It’s only like… 3 million difference?

I have not seen the numbers yet for Monday……as I usually get my updates whenever Boxoffice mojo updates the official number….but I would expect movies to have bigger drops from the weekend then normal….when that Monday is 2 days before Christmas Eve

 

[Tony the Tigger]

OT but since the question was asked: vinyl sales have increased at steady-to-steep levels for nearly 20 years. CDs, after a slump, are rebounding nicely.

There’s a place for everything - vinyl, CD, streaming, etc.

Just opened my third record store in one county last month. It has taken off nicely.

 

[BrianLo]

The Monday drop doesn’t even seem that big compared to Way of Water. It’s only like… 3 million difference?

I have not seen the numbers yet for Monday……

Ditto. Where are these Monday estimates? It's still Monday for us.

I normally never really see proper weekday international estimates apart from random markets, so I assume we're only talking about domestic right now?

 

[DKampy]

Yeah…that’s like…the one…that has served as poster child

Think of the 3 marvels that tracked poorly and did just as poorly

Except Those 3 Marvels did not opened the weekend before Christmas(which is the point)….

 

[DKampy]

Ditto. Where are these Monday estimates? It's still Monday for us.

I normally never really see proper weekday international estimates apart from random markets, so I assume we're only talking about domestic right now?

Yes….the international numbers are usually only updated on Sundays

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Except Those 3 Marvels did not opened the weekend before Christmas(which is the point)….

The point you’re making is Mufasa is that one “a-ha!!” Example

Christmas is a little different…but really these flix have the same patterns more or less. They hit the wall quickly…it just bears out.

 

[DKampy]

The point you’re making is Mufasa is that one “a-ha!!” Example

Christmas is a little different…but really these flix have the same patterns more or less. They hit the wall quickly…it just bears out.

Mufasa is not the only example of films that have those type of legs this time of year… including films like Anyone But You and The Greatest Showman…. but it is one recent Disney example

I can only imagine the meltdowns some would have with how low the opening numbers would of been if those those “3 marvels” opened now

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Why do you believe this will be rushed to PVOD/DTC? Cameron is famous for promoting a full theatrical experience. I imagine his contract guarantees a specific number of days exclusive theatrical window (90+ days) before it moves to digital. So I can’t see this moving to PVOD/DTC before March.

Plus Avatar 2 went to digital March 28, so we have the precedent to tell us what they'll almost certainly do. Disney tends to have a longer theatrical window in general as well.

It's funny to see people make predictions about Avatar that will almost certainly be wrong.

Avatar 3 will bomb! Despite 1 and 2 being two of the biggest movies of all time.

Avatar 3 will be rushed to streaming! Despite that not being the case with 2.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Mufasa is not the only example of films that have those type of legs this time of year… including films like Anyone But You and The Greatest Showman…. but it is one recent Disney example

They do happen…no argument

Avatar is more of a tent pole…it actually now clears the release schedule - as Star Wars once did - so there will be a lot of scrutiny it if ends low

I can only imagine the meltdowns some would have with how low the opening numbers would of been if those those “3 marvels” opened now

They all failed…so what would be the difference?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Okay maybe the Monday numbers I saw floating around are not verified yet. So still have to wait. But there’s this: