Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I'd bet they will sell the remaining cable assets and Discovery for more than $2.25 a share. It's funny because the $30/share offer would actually be the money NOW quick option.

Look, WB told Ellison exactly what they wanted a month ago, and Paramount slow walked it. Let's not forget that this all happened because of Ellison jumping in with unsolicited offer after unsolicited offer.

Nah, the worst-case scenario would've been the movies and shows also being laced with propaganda. All three options were bad, as I said, one was just worse.

I guess we’ll see what happens with Netflix.

Also there has been no indication that Paramount would delve into propaganda for any content, but guess we’ll see with that too.

Point is that Paramount could still end up with the division you didn’t want them to get out of all this.

My ideal would have been Amazon or Apple picking up WB, but neither of them joined the party as I mentioned before. So of the 3 Paramount seemed the best fit from a business and industry perspective.

But hey here is hoping that Netflix doesn’t kill off theatrical too quick after 2028 when the WB contracts with theaters end.

 

[Phroobar]

Not sure why they didn't release this in early-mid October, as you'd think horror would be prime market material during the Halloween season.

But from what you describe as far as crowds, I guess they knew what they were doing.

There wasn't any gore. There where some jump scares.
It was pretty tame like the first one. It didn't really need to come out for Halloween because of the huge fan base. Just five off screen kills. The Marionette was creepy like in the game.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

I believe that unless Netflix announces a confirmed buyer for the WB cable stuff within like 4 to 6 weeks, the arbitrage pressure will be too high.
Hedge funds will buy WBD at $25, vote "No" on Netflix, and take the quick $5 profit from Paramount.

This isn't old Paramount… this is David Ellison.
Ellison doesn’t have to beg banks for loans, he has access to capital. If he says he has the cash, the market believe him.

Right now I would say odds highly favor Paramount hostile takeover working..

 

[Disney Irish]

I believe that unless Netflix announces a confirmed buyer for the WB cable stuff within like 4 to 6 weeks, the arbitrage pressure will be too high.
Hedge funds will buy WBD at $25, vote "No" on Netflix, and take the quick $5 profit from Paramount.

This isn't old Paramount… this is David Ellison.
Ellison doesn’t have to beg banks for loans, he has access to capital. If he says he has the cash, the market believe him.

Right now I would say odds highly favor Paramount hostile takeover working..

List of industry heavyweights that so far have come out against Netflix buying WB -

WGA
PGA
DGA
SAG-AFTRA
Hollywood Teamsters
Cinema United
International Documentary Association
Numerous Hollywood A-Listers (Anonymously for fear of retribution from Netflix)

Basically from almost every corner of the industry they are all against this merger. No one in Hollywood is for this deal, it was the worse of the 3 for Hollywood and Hollywood is saying so. Its funny while some raised a concern for the Disney/21st Century merger, nothing on this magnitude, this is the whole industry against it. If the whole industry is against it maybe somebody should listen.

My guess is if Paramount does move forward with a hostile bid they will round up support from all of these group.

 

[BrianLo]

This will likely finish off theatrical films and could very likely kill Universal. If you’re any kind of film fan, it’s an unmitigated disaster even if it’s a slightly better outcome then Paramount winning the bidding.

Sorry, problematic in terms of being “approved” in light of the current administration. I should have quoted the speculative posts above me about if it would pass.

Those were not remotely my thoughts on if it’s good.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Would be surprised if the ‘77 theatrical Star Wars isn’t the highest grossing rerelease in history.

Unadjusted, I believe the highest grossing to date is the 1997 special edition re-release that made $138 million

 

[BlindChow]

Not sure why they didn't release this in early-mid October, as you'd think horror would be prime market material during the Halloween season.

But from what you describe as far as crowds, I guess they knew what they were doing.

There were a ton of horror releases this year, especially around Halloween. Freddy's might've been a case of wanting to stand out from the crowd by releasing in a less Horror-filled time frame.

 

[Miss Rori]

There were a ton of horror releases this year, especially around Halloween. Freddy's might've been a case of wanting to stand out from the crowd by releasing in a less Horror-filled time frame.

There aren't any other wide/non-specialty releases this weekend, and it also works as counterprogramming to the more family-forward Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good. Keep in mind 2023 and 2024 had no post-Thanksgiving weekend non-specialty titles (as opposed to stuff like Beyonce's concert film and Godzilla Minus One). There was plenty of fertile soil to plow, especially since both Z2 and WFG look to be more frontloaded than their predecessors were in terms of take (being sequels and all). Of course, FNAF 2 looks to follow a similar trajectory but there are no really big titles next weekend, so it gets one more chance to fight it out with Z2 for number 1 position before Avatar: Fire & Ash.

 

[Casper Gutman]

List of industry heavyweights that so far have come out against Netflix buying WB -

WGA
PGA
DGA
SAG-AFTRA
Hollywood Teamsters
Cinema United
International Documentary Association
Numerous Hollywood A-Listers (Anonymously for fear of retribution from Netflix)

Basically from almost every corner of the industry they are all against this merger. No one in Hollywood is for this deal, it was the worse of the 3 for Hollywood and Hollywood is saying so. Its funny while some raised a concern for the Disney/21st Century merger, nothing on this magnitude, this is the whole industry against it. If the whole industry is against it maybe somebody should listen.

My guess is if Paramount does move forward with a hostile bid they will round up support from all of these group.

I don’t think most of those groups want Paramount to acquire WB either. I suspect many if not most would see a Paramount merger as even worse. Comcast was the only “good” outcome. I’m also a bit baffled as to why Apple didn’t throw their hat in the ring - they could afford WB, it would have filled a more glaring hole for them then for any of the other competitors, and their acquiring WB would have been the best possible outcome for pretty much everyone.

As a side note, it’s a harshly ironic critique on the state of the country and culture that we’ve now reached a point where COMCAST is clearly the “good guy.”

 

[FrontierSpirit]

I don’t think most of those groups want Paramount to acquire WB either. I suspect many if not most would see a Paramount merger as even worse. Comcast was the only “good” outcome. I’m also a bit baffled as to why Apple didn’t throw their hat in the ring - they could afford WB, it would have filled a more glaring hole for them then for any of the other competitors, and their acquiring WB would have been the best possible outcome for pretty much everyone.

As a side note, it’s a harshly ironic critique on the state of the country and culture that we’ve now reached a point where COMCAST is clearly the “good guy.”

Maybe because Comcast is saying Cable TV channels are toxic assets and we are getting rid of them.
Can’t buy when you are in the middle of selling?
I don’t know

With Apple, they are the number one target for antitrust regulators globally. Constantly fighting to protect the Apple iPhone app margins. I don’t think they risk that Golden Goose just to own Looney Tunes.

 

[Nevermore525]

Estimated $915M global through 2 weekends for Zootopia 2.

Inside Out 2 was the fastest to hit $1B at 19 days

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Estimated $915M global through 2 weekends for Zootopia 2.

Inside Out 2 was the fastest to hit $1B at 19 days

Going with family to see it tonight.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Animaniac93-98]

It would be so funny if Zootopia 2 outgrossed Avatar 3

 

[Phroobar]

It would be so funny if Zootopia 2 outgrossed Avatar 3

We can only hope.

 

[Disney Irish]

It would be so funny if Zootopia 2 outgrossed Avatar 3

Won’t happen, but either way Disney wins which is good overall.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t think most of those groups want Paramount to acquire WB either. I suspect many if not most would see a Paramount merger as even worse. Comcast was the only “good” outcome. I’m also a bit baffled as to why Apple didn’t throw their hat in the ring - they could afford WB, it would have filled a more glaring hole for them then for any of the other competitors, and their acquiring WB would have been the best possible outcome for pretty much everyone.

As a side note, it’s a harshly ironic critique on the state of the country and culture that we’ve now reached a point where COMCAST is clearly the “good guy.”

Of the two Paramount is the lesser of two evils and at least still wants to maintain theatrical. I know some here didn’t want it because of politics, I could care less about that in this situation. This was always about theatrical for me. So while not ideal I suspect if it’s a choice between Paramount and Netflix those groups rather have Paramount.

Netflix has been open about how the theatrical model is outdated and that theaters basically need to die, or as Teddy put it “outmoded”. And this wasn’t years ago he said this, it was earlier this year.

I’ve been saying here for a long time that theatrical was on its way out as consumers waited to see things at home, that was just the reality of the box office. But that doesn’t mean I actually wanted it to happen. I go to the movies at least once a week. This Netflix merger just puts the second to last nail in the coffin. The last will be when one of the major theater chains starts to go under, and I don’t think it’ll be long before that happens. AMC has been circling the drain for awhile now, so I suspect they go first.

But yeah at least we’ll get that Stranger Things/Game of Thrones crossover that some fans want.

 

[Disney Irish]

Speaking of Box Office....

Freddy 2 is going to end up opening almost $20M behind the first. Add that to the B Cinemascore and it seems that many fans didn't want this sequel and may wait to watch it at home. And with Avatar 3 coming up they may not have to wait very long (Teddy would be proud). As I don't see it lasting long in theaters as its probably not getting what the first made. At least it was cheap to make.

Zootopia 2 had a good hold only dropping 57%, as was mentioned is now at $915M WW. So yeah it'll get to $1B this upcoming week, not this weekend like some thought.

 

[DKampy]

I predict a huge drop for Freddy next weekend…. The only people really that interested in the film are the fans

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Five Nights at Freddy's 2 now estimated to open with $63 million, higher than previously expected

Zootopia 2 had the 2nd best opening for a Hollywood film ever in Japan ($12.3 million), behind only Frozen 2

Wicked: For Good has now made $440 million worldwide, but won't be released in Japan until March 6