Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[coffeefan]

It's far too early in the day for my cocktail napkin to be damp, so this quick math is done on a bone dry cocktail napkin...

The three movies from Burbank this fall, before the Christmas tent poles arrive, lost about $200 Million. That's a $200 Million hole that both Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 need to dig out of for Disney as a whole. My gut tells me that both of those Christmas tent poles will earn a tidy profit, but starting their runs in a hole on the Burbank lot that's $200 Million deep isn't great.

Tron: Ares = $154 Million Loss
Predator: Badlands = $35-ish Million Loss
Rental Family = $20-ish Million Loss

Total = $200-ish Million Loss for Autumn '25 Releases

According to this article, Badlands should qualify for NZ rebate programs. So the theatrical loss may be lower than expected.

Predator: Badlands brings suspense to New Zealand

Dan Trachtenberg’s Predator: Badlands filmed key scenes in New Zealand, with principal photography conducted in Auckland and Rotorua

www.thelocationguide.com

 

[Disney Irish]

According to this article, Badlands should qualify for NZ rebate programs. So the theatrical loss may be lower than expected.

Predator: Badlands brings suspense to New Zealand

Dan Trachtenberg’s Predator: Badlands filmed key scenes in New Zealand, with principal photography conducted in Auckland and Rotorua

www.thelocationguide.com

If I read this correctly, that is potentially a 25% or ~$25M rebate.

It also got an ~$3M rebate from France for VFX work that was done there -

‘Predator: Badlands,’ ‘Peaky Blinders,’ ‘The Bride!’ All Harness France VFX Expertise

Postproduction studios The Yard and One of Us herald growing maturity, resilience in French VFX sector

variety.com

 

[DKampy]

From what I hear it did what it was suppose to do and finish the story. I hear there were a little too many flashbacks to fill holes. My wife says it was well done and enjoyable. It still should have been one movie instead of two.

Perhaps you should watch the actual movies before you comment on what should have been done to make the films better

 

[TP2000]

According to this article, Badlands should qualify for NZ rebate programs. So the theatrical loss may be lower than expected.

Predator: Badlands brings suspense to New Zealand

Dan Trachtenberg’s Predator: Badlands filmed key scenes in New Zealand, with principal photography conducted in Auckland and Rotorua

www.thelocationguide.com

Ah, yes, those wonderful love gifts that the taxpayers of foreign lands give to Hollywood studios.

Assuming that gift to Burbank from the New Zealand Treasury wasn't already factored in to the reported budget of $105 Million, and assuming that all of that $105 Million was spent entirely in New Zealand without so much as a Burbank intern making a quick run to the Little Caesars down Alameda Ave., that would give Predator: Badlands a break even of about $212 Million.

 

[TP2000]

I forget how we handle Thanksgiving weekend around here. We'd normally update a thread with Thursday preview box office, etc. And Zootopia 2 opens tomorrow!

But I'm just about to make the 80mph desert dash to McCarran to fly up to my sister's vacation place where I will blissfully arrive empty handed! My young nephews beautiful new wives are both as competitive as they are, and in addition to seeing who can have the most children the fastest, they have turned Thanksgiving dinner into a competitive sport. So I'm letting them have at it, while I sit on the couch!

And everyone else, except perhaps our Canadian friends, will be busy as well celebrating and giving thanks with friends and family on this most American of holidays. So I guess we'll see you all next week to discuss what hit big and what fell flat?

It will be interesting to see how well Zootopia 2 does so shortly after the big numbers from Wicked 2 as it feels like there's some crossover demographics there, and what kind of fumes Predator: Badlands has to coast through a long holiday weekend when box office usually goes boffo.

Until then, a happy Thanksgiving to all! We truly do have so much to be thankful for!

 

[Phroobar]

Perhaps you should watch the actual movies before you comment on what should have been done to make the films better

I intend to. I'm just relating what I've heard from people who have.

 

[Ghost93]

Zootopia 2 was fine. I was entertained and it was well made. It just doesn't at all reach the high standard set by the first movie. It'd compare it to Incredibles 2 where it's a solid time at the movies, but it's no classic like its predecessor.


I think it will do well at the box office because it's decent enough and it should be pleasing to children. I don't think Wicked will be much competition as that film — despite only having a PG rating — seems to skew a bit older in its target demographic.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[BrianLo]

This one might be blowing the doors off the hinges momentarily thanks to some bugaboo on China's opening weekend.

 

[Nevermore525]

This one might be blowing the doors off the hinges momentarily thanks to some bugaboo on China's opening weekend.

Opening day in China already double Moana 2s total take for the country

 

[Disstevefan1]

Zootopia 2 will make 1B.

 

[monothingie]

"Box office analysts expect the film to generate between $135 million and $150 million during the five-day Thanksgiving period. Although that will be significantly below the $225.4 million that “Moana 2” took in during the same period last year, it is a welcome jolt for a box office that has struggled in the last few months to drum up ticket sales."

Zootopia 2 will make 1B.

No. Moana 2 was between $75 and $100M ahead opening weekend. Z2 will probably do well overseas and in China, but so did Moana 2. Also remember that studios only get 10-20% of the box office from China, so don't go celebrating yet.

Z2, unless it drops off a cliff week 2 will pay for itself and make money. It doesn't have any competition for several weeks and will likely have the same if not better legs than Moana 2 did. It will also have access to premium formats longer which make more money per screen.

The biggest problem going for Z2 is its cost. Moana 2 was a smash for Disney because they took a D+ show and made it into a theatrical release on the cheap in Canadiastan. Z2 cost much more.

 

[Fox&Hound]

Just saw Zootopia 2. It is wonderful! Highly recommend! The movie has returning characters, new personalities that are fleshed out so it does not feel like a rehash, and world building. It deserves to do well! I am sure we will get a third at some point.

 

[monothingie]

Ah, yes, those wonderful love gifts that the taxpayers of foreign lands give to Hollywood studios.

Assuming that gift to Burbank from the New Zealand Treasury wasn't already factored in to the reported budget of $105 Million, and assuming that all of that $105 Million was spent entirely in New Zealand without so much as a Burbank intern making a quick run to the Little Caesars down Alameda Ave., that would give Predator: Badlands a break even of about $212 Million.

The whole thing originates from fanbois on Reddit posting the same regurgitated AI generated information about the tax credit. Nothing official has been released and it's all supposition.

Speaking of Tax Credits, the real interesting story about government largess of the people's money towards the multibillion dollar global purveyors of crap involves Dead Pool and Wolverine. The movie that was reported to cost $200M movie now seems like it cost around $480M (After the tax credit). Add marketing and that $1.3B haul may at best be them breaking even.

 

[Disstevefan1]

No. Moana 2 was between $75 and $100M ahead opening weekend. Z2 will probably do well overseas and in China, but so did Moana 2. Also remember that studios only get 10-20% of the box office from China, so don't go celebrating yet.

Z2, unless it drops off a cliff week 2 will pay for itself and make money. It doesn't have any competition for several weeks and will likely have the same if not better legs than Moana 2 did. It will also have access to premium formats longer which make more money per screen.

The biggest problem going for Z2 is its cost. Moana 2 was a smash for Disney because they took a D+ show and made it into a theatrical release on the cheap in Canadiastan. Z2 cost much more.

To clarify, I meant, I think Z2 will gross 1B.

What it actually clears as profit is another story and frankly no one knows for sure and we can only guess

 

[Disney Irish]

The whole thing originates from fanbois on Reddit posting the same regurgitated AI generated information about the tax credit. Nothing official has been released and it's all supposition.

This isn't some "fanboi" Reddit post or supposition, its being reported in the official trades -

‘Frankenstein’ to ‘Wednesday’ and ‘The Last of Us’: How Aggressive Incentives Have Resulted in a Boom in International Filming

‘Frankenstein’ to ‘Wednesday’ and ‘The Last of Us’: International locations lure top productions with aggressive incentives.

variety.com

The New Zealand Film Commission recently made changes to its rebate program to incentivize a sector that generates almost $2 billion yearly for the country. The rebate, currently sitting at 20% with a possible 5% uplift for international productions, is simple to claim and not tied to tax, with the New Zealand dollar offering excellent value for international productions. The new program has also lowered the threshold for qualifying projects to a $2.6 million minimum, lowered from $8.5 million. The city of Auckland is a popular shooting destination thanks to its geographical diversity — with plenty of urban landscapes, forests, coastlines, black sand beaches and volcanic fields within a short drive from the center — but also because of its wealth of studios and post-production facilities. This year, the city has housed shoots for “Predator: Badlands” and Netflix’s “East of Eden” series.

The film is even promoted right on NZ's film site -

Predator: Badlands

Aotearoa sets the stage for a fierce new chapter in the iconic franchise, powered by New Zealand’s talent and landscapes.

www.nzfilm.co.nz

So to say that it didn't get a tax credit is just wrong. The only thing we don't know is the dollar amount, but we can say that its at least 20% of budget, or about $21M. So this effectively brings down the budget used for calculations from $105M to $84M (possibly more), for a breakeven point of $210M. Now as we discussed it won't get to that but that means its shortfall from just theatrical will be lower than previously thought, currently sitting at -$48M.

My guess is if it left theaters right now, it'll be a $10-15M loss after PVOD and other licensing, before they even put it on D+/Hulu. So yeah not the huge success that some may have thought but probably also not deemed a failure by Disney. As while not official yet Trachtenberg has already said he has ideas lined up for sequels, and is just waiting for the greenlight, so that would indicate that he has already had discussions with Disney.

 

[monothingie]

This isn't some "fanboi" Reddit post or supposition, its being reported in the official trades -

‘Frankenstein’ to ‘Wednesday’ and ‘The Last of Us’: How Aggressive Incentives Have Resulted in a Boom in International Filming

‘Frankenstein’ to ‘Wednesday’ and ‘The Last of Us’: International locations lure top productions with aggressive incentives.

variety.com

The film is even promoted right on NZ's film site -

Predator: Badlands

Aotearoa sets the stage for a fierce new chapter in the iconic franchise, powered by New Zealand’s talent and landscapes.

www.nzfilm.co.nz

So to say that it didn't get a tax credit is just wrong. The only thing we don't know is the dollar amount, but we can say that its at least 20% of budget, or about $21M. So this effectively brings down the budget used for calculations from $105M to $84M (possibly more), for a breakeven point of $210M. Now as we discussed it won't get to that but that means its shortfall from just theatrical will be lower than previously thought, currently sitting at -$48M.

My guess is if it left theaters right now, it'll be a $10-15M loss after PVOD and other licensing, before they even put it on D+/Hulu. So yeah not the huge success that some may have thought but probably also not deemed a failure by Disney. As while not official yet Trachtenberg has already says he has ideas lined up for sequels, and it just waiting for the greenlight, so that would indicate that he has already had discussions with Disney.

The only source right now is on Reddit for the dollar amount and percentage. Nothing official has been disclosed. So take that for what it’s worth.

You’re also very good at distortion and moving the goal post on things. If you look through my original comment, did I ever say it was not getting a tax credit? I said that nothing official has been released . Big difference. Also as was mentioned before the rebate corresponds to the money spent in New Zealand, which certainly does not encompass the entire production budget.


Also, it takes a lot of cope and mental gymnastics to come to the conclusion that Disney is satisfied with the production losing tens of millions of dollars. But I guess it’s better than hundreds of millions. But you do you in your little bubble.

 

[Disney Irish]

The only source right now is on Reddit for the dollar amount and percentage. Nothing official has been disclosed. So take that for what it’s worth.

You’re also very good at distortion and moving the goal post on things. If you look through my original comment, did I ever say it was not getting a tax credit? I said that nothing official has been released . Big difference. Also as was mentioned before the rebate corresponds to the money spent in New Zealand, which certainly does not encompass the entire production budget.


Also, it takes a lot of cope and mental gymnastics to come to the conclusion that Disney is satisfied with the production losing tens of millions of dollars. But I guess it’s better than hundreds of millions. But you do you in your little bubble.

Where did I say Disney was "satisfied"? I didn't, I said they probably don't deem it a failure, BIG difference there bubba.

Also I'm still not moving any goal posts, they have been right in the same place. Because once again I don't speak in absolutes or with certainty, I speak in possibilities.

 

[Disney Irish]

The only source right now is on Reddit for the dollar amount and percentage. Nothing official has been disclosed. So take that for what it’s worth.

Incorrect, here is the official percentage information direct from NZ film commission in a recent document on an proposed update to the rebate to lower qualifications -

The NZSPR–International is a government incentive to attract international film and television productions to New Zealand by refunding a portion of the qualifying money they spend locally. To qualify for the rebate, productions must undertake eligible expenditure in New Zealand, which in practice means hiring New Zealand crew and engaging local suppliers — including set construction, catering, transport, and post-production services. The scheme offers a base rebate of 20 per cent of eligible production expenditure, with an additional 5% Uplift available for productions that deliver broader benefits to New Zealand, such as skills development, innovation or international market growth. The 5% Uplift points-test framework and expenditure rules are specifically designed to ensure that the scheme delivers tangible benefits for New Zealand workers and businesses.

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/31562-targeted-adjustments-to-the-new-zealand-screen-production-rebate-international-proactiverelease-pdf

The only thing that again isn't known is the exact dollar amount. So once again this isn't just some Reddit supposition its a real percentage that comes right from the source.

 

[monothingie]

Incorrect, here is the official percentage information direct from NZ film commission in a recent document on an proposed update to the rebate to lower qualifications -

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/31562-targeted-adjustments-to-the-new-zealand-screen-production-rebate-international-proactiverelease-pdf

The only thing that again isn't known is the exact dollar amount. So once again this isn't just some Reddit supposition its a real percentage that comes right from the source.

What’s the US dollar amount genius?

You just released a lot of boiler plate.

You’re just dancing around the fact that nothing official in terms of a dollar amount or exact percentage has been released yet. You’re just going based on what Reddit says as an assumption.

You just keep doubling down on stupid.