Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Don’t act like a victim.

It’s an appropriate description for individuals who would rather ignore reality and transpose their personal feelings in any sort of rational analysis. In your case, your constant willingness to cover for Disney clouded your ability to analyze what was going on.

This movie had no path to anything over $200M or even $180M, but all we heard was this ridiculous cope that it was going to make money at 225+.

Please show me where I said it was going to make any specific dollar amount? I didn't, all I spoke about was how IF it made X and was Y amount short that it could make it up in the post-theatrical market and make it to profitability. But I never posted that it would make any specific amount. Which is a very rational analysis of the market.

I speak in possibilities, not certainties, because this market is very hard to predict, especially these days. You want to take a victory lap go ahead. But that doesn't mean your ability to prognosticate is any more in tune with the market than any of the rest of us. If it was you'd be sitting in the big chair in some studio, not posting on some Disney Fan board. You guessed right this time, next time you could be wrong, its all a flip of the coin. So maybe come down from your high horse.

 

[Phroobar]

Not the Naked Gun?

Like Tron, I met to see the Naked Gun but just didn't care enough to see it. Predator just looked really bad from the trailer and the look of the creature.

 

[TP2000]

First pass box office is in for this weekend.

There's actually a new movie from one of Disney's studios! The boutique Searchlight Pictures (I had to go Google just now to refresh my memory; Searchlight was bought by Disney in 2019 as part of the Fox deal) released a movie called Rental Family, starring Brendan Fraser. It didn't do well in its debut, but it's production budget is reported at only $12 Million so it won't leave too bad of a mark on 2025 when it fails to break even a month from now.

Predator: Badlands continued to tank worldwide. It has very weak legs, domestically and globally, and is almost about to flatline after its 3rd weekend. Luckily, it might continue to coast a bit this upcoming week, now that so many schools and employees take the entire week of Thanksgiving off. I was robbed by only getting a 4 Day turkey weekend my whole life!

Still, best case scenario right now looks like Predator: Badlands will end up losing about $35 Million for Burbank. Oof.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 27, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 27, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Rewatched the first Wicked last night, primed to see For Good in a few hours - eep!

 

[TP2000]

One other piece of business we can tidy up and file away is Tron: Ares. It's over now, turning in just $125,000 from this weekend's box office. Burbank is taking a hit of $154 Million on this one. That's not just Oof, but an Oof!

Tron: Ares - $180 Production x 2.5, $142 Global Box Office, Divided by 2 = $154 Million Loss

We'll file that $154 Million loss away for now, and add it to the pile for our 2025 Burbank Box Office Recap in January.

Tron: Ares (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Tron: Ares (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Phroobar]

My wife is taking her friend to see Wicked for Good tomorrow morning. I'm not thrilled how much more money a Wicked ticket costs over an other movie. $14.95 vs $11.95.

 

[TP2000]

It's far too early in the day for my cocktail napkin to be damp, so this quick math is done on a bone dry cocktail napkin...

The three movies from Burbank this fall, before the Christmas tent poles arrive, lost about $200 Million. That's a $200 Million hole that both Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 need to dig out of for Disney as a whole. My gut tells me that both of those Christmas tent poles will earn a tidy profit, but starting their runs in a hole on the Burbank lot that's $200 Million deep isn't great.

Tron: Ares = $154 Million Loss
Predator: Badlands = $35-ish Million Loss
Rental Family = $20-ish Million Loss

Total = $200-ish Million Loss for Autumn '25 Releases

 

[Disney Irish]

It's far too early in the day for my cocktail napkin to be damp, so this quick math is done on a bone dry cocktail napkin...

The three movies from Burbank this fall, before the Christmas tent poles arrive, lost about $200 Million. That's a $200 Million hole that both Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 need to dig out of for Disney as a whole. My gut tells me that both of those Christmas tent poles will earn a tidy profit, but starting their runs in a hole on the Burbank lot that's $200 Million deep isn't great.

Tron: Ares = $154 Million Loss
Predator: Badlands = $35-ish Million Loss
Rental Family = $20-ish Million Loss

Total = $200-ish Million Loss for Autumn '25 Releases

I think this whole year has been riding on 3 movies -

Stitch
Zootopia 2
Avatar: Fire and Ash

If at the end of the year these 3 make up for any losses and get enough to earn a profit for the year Disney will be happy.

Also just an FYI Disney does have another movie coming out this winter, a $40M mid-budget movie call Ella McCay.

 

[Nevermore525]

I think this whole year has been riding on 3 movies -

Stitch
Zootopia 2
Avatar: Fire and Ash

Yep. Zoo 2 could get off to a decent start with speculation that it may get near $200M over the first 5 days just from China, and an additional $130M domestically. We’ll see soon enough what actually happens.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I don’t think we need to worry about Zootopia 2. For once the Chinese are embracing a Hollywood film again, and it is smashing presale records there.

 

[BrianLo]

I don’t think we need to worry about Zootopia 2. For once the Chinese are embracing a Hollywood film again, and it is smashing presale records there.

International was always this films positive wildcard. The original is within a stone throw of the much discussed 2023 Mermaid domestically. Everyone can interpret this how they want, but Zootopia’s past success was clearly made Internationally.

China would be a dead market to Hollywood if they couldn’t convert the type of affinity I saw on the ground towards the sequel.

 

[TP2000]

I don’t think we need to worry about Zootopia 2. For once the Chinese are embracing a Hollywood film again, and it is smashing presale records there.

While I agree, I would change the phrasing just a tad, to....

The Chinese are being allowed to embrace a Hollywood film again. Previously, many of Burbank's big budget tent poles weren't allowed to be seen in China, due to Communist censors outright banning movies that discuss forbidden topics or concepts.

Zootopia 2 passed the Communist censors and was allowed to be screened in Communist China.

Of course, that's as it should be as the Chinese have a great affinity for the Zootopia characters/story for some reason. But Burbank was smart and didn't try to wedge in a gay character, or a pro-Capitalist message, or a religious theme or anything to do with ghosts, or an admission that Taiwan or Tibet exist, or any number of other forbidden sins in the eyes of the CCP.

You'd think a children's movie like Zootopia wouldn't need that sort of stuff in it anyway, but that didn't stop Burbank in the past with Lightyear, Strange World, Turning Red, a laundry list of recent Marvel movies, etc., all of which were banned in China.

 

[BrianLo]

While I agree, I would change the phrasing just a tad, to....

The Chinese are being allowed to embrace a Hollywood film again. Previously, many of Burbank's big budget tent poles weren't allowed to be seen in China, due to Communist censors outright banning movies that discuss forbidden topics or concepts.

Zootopia 2 passed the Communist censors and was allowed to be screened in Communist China.

Of course, that's as it should be as the Chinese have a great affinity for the Zootopia characters/story for some reason. But Burbank was smart and didn't try to wedge in a gay character, or a pro-Capitalist message, or a religious theme or anything to do with ghosts, or an admission that Taiwan or Tibet exist, or any number of other forbidden sins in the eyes of the CCP.

You'd think a children's movie like Zootopia wouldn't need that sort of stuff in it anyway, but that didn't stop Burbank in the past with Lightyear, Strange World, Turning Red, a laundry list of recent Marvel movies, etc., all of which were banned in China.

Just to correct a misperception; almost all of Disneys recent movies have been released In China as of late. I was trying to see if this wasn’t the case, but I think they’ve had a reasonable Trojan into the market with their government park. Mermaid, Brave New World, Tron, The Marvels, Elio all had releases - then I gave up admittedly, so I’m sure there is something I’m missing.

I even saw Turning Red merch for sale at SDL

Your speculation is valid, but China has been unrelenting at not turning up for pretty much any Hollywood fare post pandemic. Not just a Disney phenomenon. I think we need to acknowledge that yes it’s multifactorial and seems to have gotten worse, but maybe the market just isn’t into most of what Hollywood peddles in the same way Bollywood is a non-factor domestically.

Sometimes that shifts in the way the global market is really open to Japanese culture right now.

Now if they ever bring a moderately budgeted Duffy release - the gloves are off.

 

[TP2000]

I even saw Turning Red merch for sale at SDL.

That's fascinating! How would they know what Turning Red was/is? The movie itself was banned from theaters in China because it's Chinese language is Cantonese, the language of Taiwan, and for its veiled allusions to adult themes.

Why ditching the China film market won’t hurt Asian representation on film

We find ourselves in an exciting moment for American cinema telling Chinese stories, with movies such as Turning Red refusing to pander to the authoritarian regime

www.theguardian.com

And Disney+ is not available in Communist China, so how are they getting Turning Red past the censors and on their pop culture radar? Did they maybe retcon the original to remove the Cantonese (Taiwan!) language and other themes?

Sometimes that shifts in the way the global market is really open to Japanese culture right now.

Well, as you and I both know from personal experience, the Japanese are practically perfect in every way! (At least since 1946.)

Now if they ever bring a moderately budgeted Duffy release - the gloves are off.

The Duffy thing has always baffled me. I remember when they tried to make it a thing at DCA around 15 years ago, and it... flopped. And flopped badly. And was forgotten.

TDA tried so hard to make it work though, you almost felt badly for them.

Alas, the average childless 28 year old SoCal AP from Alhambra or Aliso Viejo is not as numerous as the Tokyo Office Lady.

But God love 'em, they tried! As the childbirth rate has crashed into the basement in Communist China just as it has in Japan, I'm somehow not surprised the Shanghai Office Ladies have also taken to Duffy. But still... I don't get it.

 

[BrianLo]

That's fascinating! How would they know what Turning Red was/is?

It was only the red panda stuffy. So I guess they felt that was a safe bet based on their clear affinity for stuffed animals (Mickey, Zootopia, Duffy)?

And only a single stuffy line in one store. As I mentioned 90% of the merch belonged to those three franchises and Pooh was fourth. Maybe Stitch or Frozen a more distant 5th/6th, but decidedly it’s much less popular than the US.

The Duffy thing has always baffled me. I remember when they tried to make it a thing at DCA around 15 years ago, and it... flopped. And flopped badly. And was forgotten.

TDA tried so hard to make it work though, you almost felt badly for them.

A movie strictly for the Asian market. Hence not a very big budget. Maybe even made by an Asian studio. Duffy seems poised to break into Singapore shortly.

I feel weird saying that I think SDL’s visitors are more into Duffy than Japanese… but honestly, they were nuts for it. Probably in part because they really aren’t into much Disney stuff.

 

[Disney Irish]

While I agree, I would change the phrasing just a tad, to....

The Chinese are being allowed to embrace a Hollywood film again. Previously, many of Burbank's big budget tent poles weren't allowed to be seen in China, due to Communist censors outright banning movies that discuss forbidden topics or concepts.

Zootopia 2 passed the Communist censors and was allowed to be screened in Communist China.

Of course, that's as it should be as the Chinese have a great affinity for the Zootopia characters/story for some reason. But Burbank was smart and didn't try to wedge in a gay character, or a pro-Capitalist message, or a religious theme or anything to do with ghosts, or an admission that Taiwan or Tibet exist, or any number of other forbidden sins in the eyes of the CCP.

You'd think a children's movie like Zootopia wouldn't need that sort of stuff in it anyway, but that didn't stop Burbank in the past with Lightyear, Strange World, Turning Red, a laundry list of recent Marvel movies, etc., all of which were banned in China.

I’m guessing you never saw the first Zootopia. While not overt there is certainly a pro-captialistic/pro-western/pro-American Dream message in the movie.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Rewatched the first Wicked last night, primed to see For Good in a few hours - eep!

Loved it.

 

[BrianLo]

Loved it.

Though it is, I admit, just the tiniest bit, better than I anticipated!

Surprised it didn’t manage to feel stretched despite have 2/3rd of the material to work with that the first had.

 

[Phroobar]

From what I hear it did what it was suppose to do and finish the story. I hear there were a little too many flashbacks to fill holes. My wife says it was well done and enjoyable. It still should have been one movie instead of two.

 

[Ghost93]

It still should have been one movie instead of two.

Definitely not. They would have had to cut about 90 minutes to two hours worth of content to get it into one movie, and that would have likely hurt the emotional investment people had in the characters.

Furthermore, a lot of the complaints people have about "Wicked: For Good" are just fundamental problems with the overall story of Act II of the Play. If all of that was crammed into Wicked, critics would say it was a movie that started strong but then failed to stick the landing once the story overlapped with The Wizard of Oz. By splitting into two movies, we end up with a situation where we have one movie that most people agree is pretty good-to-great and one movie that is divisive.

I personally liked Wicked For Good a lot, but one of my biggest criticisms is that some of the plot points felt to rushed. That criticism would only be exacerbated by being crammed into the first movie with less time to let the story breathe.