News Disney’s Q3 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m starting to think you don’t understand the difference between a companies performance and a companies stock performance.

If Disney went to $14 a share tomorrow the company would be extremely undervalued and would quickly be purchased by another company wanting to take advantage of a great price for a great asset. It would have no bearing whatsoever on the companies revenue, operating income, or the value of its assets. What that buyer would do with their new purchase would be dependent on the strength of the company not on the stock price.

So you come up with an absurd scenario and then say it’s absurd to prove the scarecrow only needed a brain?

How about this for you instead:

Say a company declined and “bobbed” (pun very much intended) around for the better part of 4 years in the $85-$95 dollar range while any idiot company with a stock showed a 30% valuation increase over that time?

Does that indicate “company health”?

Use small words for me

 

[Chi84]

“What investors both institutional and retail think is not grounded in reality. It’s all a game. The rules are made up and the points don’t matter.”


This is copy pasted from their post.

You cut and pasted out all the context of the post.

Just go back to reporting on the stock price in every thread.

 

[Chi84]

So you come up with an absurd scenario and then say it’s absurd to prove the scarecrow only needed a brain?

How about this for you instead:

Say a company declined and “bobbed” (pun very much intended) around for the better part of 4 years in the $85-$95 dollar range while any idiot company with a stock showed a 30% valuation increase over that time?

Does that indicate “company health”?

Use small words for me

To be fair someone else came up with the absurd scenario.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s pretty simple and you aren’t wrong. @Nevermore525 spelt it out succinctly with the 2016/2025 comp.

Disney has gone ten years in a media company bloodbath. If you want to boil it down to the floating stock price, you miss entirely the metrics underneath. The success here is not that the company is flat over a decade… but that’s its flat and Disney is the only media company to survive the Millenium as still itself. Every other one is gone in its prior form.

They’ve moved from a five pillared company (Linear Media, Sports, Parks, Studios, Consumer Products) to a seven pillared one (Domestic Parks, DTC, Sports, International Parks, Studios, Consumer Products and Linear) and absorbed the horrible decade on decade fall of disruption on the way. Arguably soon to be eight pillared if DCL breaks out of domestic, like I think it eventually should.

*Note I know someone is going to tell me International parks existed in 2015. Not as a pillar. It was mostly a side licensing deal. Paris has been bought out, Shanghai didn’t exist and HK was being actively buried. It was not broken out separately.


It’s not where the company was but where it is going. I feel it’s infinitely more secure with Linear finally sunsetting as the lead pillar.

The performance is what it is…which means we’re just left to where and what it is…

So I did look around today after the stock dipped a little early to the uzzze suspects: Bloomberg, Forbes, Barrons, cnbc…curious reaction

It seems:

Any drip in revenue or lower than thought (which is padded) is met with “punishment”…

Also the espn thing and spending more on content for streaming not liked.

The street does not like streaming…it’s not free money and “decline in tv revenues” was mentioned Again today. Broadcast tv. I actually am surprised they still mentioned it.

Also…giving the nfl skin in ESPN - was viewed as desperation. Which is speaking out of both sides of their mouth…it seems?

The stock doesn’t tell the whole story…but a good quarter is given a $10 bump in many if not most cases today. Something to watch

 

[Nevermore525]

You cut and pasted out all the context of the post.

Just go back to reporting on the stock price in every thread.

That whole $Dis Stock price hit an all time high while streaming, and parks were losing $$. When Linear was keeping the lights on financially with a small contribution from the studios.

Stock hit its peak at TWDCs lowest Operating Income of the last decade+

 

[Trauma]

You cut and pasted out all the context of the post.

Just go back to reporting on the stock price in every thread.

I’m talking about the stock price in this thread.

If you don’t like it please report it.

Do you have anything of value to add to this thread or are you just popping in to antagonize me?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That whole $Dis Stock price hit an all time high while streaming, and parks were losing $$. When Linear was keeping the lights on financially with a small contribution from the studios.

Stock hit its peak at TWDCs lowest Operating Income of the last decade+

The markets are a game?

Yes…they are and can’t be taken as particularly fair or accurate

It’s more the fact they can’t really move it that’s worrisome. Doesn’t matter how much they say they can charge people or how many stream subs…just not moving the needle. Not that it makes sense…in alot of ways it doesn’t.

I think they hate the overhead of Disney…that’s the take away based on what you just described. They think they cost too much for quick scores and cash outs. And they’re right…which is the B of it.

That’s terrible for Disneys fans. Which is why I care.

This encourages more “slash and jack” tactics by an overlord who should be gone already. It’s not good for us.

 

[Chi84]

I’m talking about the stock price in this thread.

If you don’t like it please report it.

Do you have anything of value to add to this thread or are you just popping in to antagonize me?

To what? This has nothing to do with you. I’m commenting on your ubiquitous simplistic posts.

 

[Trauma]

To what? This has nothing to do with you. I’m commenting on your ubiquitous simplistic posts.

I’ll take that as a no.

Have a magical day.

 

[peter11435]

So you come up with an absurd scenario and then say it’s absurd to prove the scarecrow only needed a brain?

How about this for you instead:

Say a company declined and “bobbed” (pun very much intended) around for the better part of 4 years in the $85-$95 dollar range while any idiot company with a stock showed a 30% valuation increase over that time?

Does that indicate “company health”?

Use small words for me

I think you should re read this thread and follow along better. I’m not the one that came up with the absurd scenario.

But to answer your question. The scenario you’ve created doesn’t indicate the health of either company. It just outlines the fluctuations in their stock price. You could make assumptions but there’s not enough information to make an informed judgment on the health of either company.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think you should re read this thread and follow along better. I’m not the one that came up with the absurd scenario.

But to answer your question. The scenario you’ve created doesn’t indicate the health of either company. It just outlines the fluctuations in their stock price. You could make assumptions but there’s not enough information to make an informed judgment on the health of either company.

I’m not in total disagreement with you here…which isn’t all that common.

But in the end their “health” doesn’t matter to the money people…who rule the world. It’s how to make the fastest, easier cash off it. Which is not something Disney has ever been and shouldn’t be. It’s a low quality approach.

The problem is you have the self announced heir to Steve Jobs…who is highly impressionable and easily swayed…

Probably greenlit 11 bad marvel sequels when he lost $3 a share today

The world is neither fair nor intelligent

And I “follow” the thread just fine - to those that say reasonable stuff worth considering…not excuses badly disguised as bad parental lecturing - I just see that coming from too far away to contribute to the dust party

 

[BrianLo]

You have to look at the offerings and the ways you can spend money to understand what they are doing and who they can squeeze and how they can squeeze in the future.

Value and Moderate Hotel rack rates have been extremely stable adjusted for inflation for a very long time. Decades in some cases.

Ticket prices are pretty stable vs inflation post COVID with the biggest hit on multi day tickets about 5 or 6 years ago.

Deluxes have been basically squeezed which is the segment Disney is try to squeeze harder. Just look at the ABD offerings as well as them testing the waters with those mini ESPN ABD offerings.

They squeeze on LLs which is optional.
The squeeze the rich with deluxe costs, LLPP and specialty tours.

If they find that there is a drop in Value and Moderate guests (there isn't yet) they can goose ticket prices to get them on property to spend more on LL and food or whatever other offerings.

I know two families that booked a family vacation and used the cheap every park but MK tickets as the catalyst. And both families didn't buy an MK ticket and they were happy.

Anyway, plenty of ways to keep people spending.

Sorry I didn’t mean to keep the parks earning around inflation, I meant if they really want to grow them. As you’ve shown, most of the lines items have hit their tolerance level.

Death of the decades long red ocean strategy. Time to expand! Which can and does include DCL as long as that stays buried in domestic parks.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Far be it from me to agree with a few of the posters in this thread but it happens from time to time… Ford during the recession was the only major US automaker that had a (decently solid) plan and didn’t need a bailout and it was rewarded with… a stock price that plummeted to $1/share. So stock price can be disconnected from the actual business health at times. I don’t feel that Disney’s stock price reflects the current health of the company. I think it’s over-valued by 50%. There are far better stocks to buy and hold for long term dividends and growth than DIS under Iger for the past 12 years.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They squeeze on LLs which is optional.
The squeeze the rich with deluxe costs, LLPP and specialty tours.

You think those are “rich folk”
Things?
How are things in Huntington, West Virginia these days?

I know two families that booked a family vacation and used the cheap every park but MK tickets as the catalyst. And both families didn't buy an MK ticket and they were happy.

Great for them…a depressing picture for Disney’s business - However.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Far be it from me to agree with a few of the posters in this thread but it happens from time to time… Ford during the recession was the only major US automaker that had a (decently solid) plan and didn’t need a bailout and it was rewarded with… a stock price that plummeted to $1/share. So stock price can be disconnected from the actual business health at times. I don’t feel that Disney’s stock price reflects the current health of the company. I think it’s over-valued by 50%. There are far better stocks to buy and hold for long term dividends and growth than DIS under Iger for the past 12 years.

…ford sucks

 

[HauntedPirate]

…ford sucks

I don’t disagree.

 

[CoastalElite64]

 

[Sir_Cliff]

It’s pretty simple and you aren’t wrong. @Nevermore525 spelt it out succinctly with the 2016/2025 comp.

Disney has gone ten years in a media company bloodbath. If you want to boil it down to the floating stock price, you miss entirely the metrics underneath. The success here is not that the company is flat over a decade… but that’s its flat and Disney is the only media company to survive the Millenium as still itself. Every other one is gone in its prior form.

They’ve moved from a five pillared company (Linear Media, Sports, Parks, Studios, Consumer Products) to a seven pillared one (Domestic Parks, DTC, Sports, International Parks, Studios, Consumer Products and Linear) and absorbed the horrible decade on decade fall of disruption on the way. Arguably soon to be eight pillared if DCL breaks out of domestic, like I think it eventually should.

*Note I know someone is going to tell me International parks existed in 2015. Not as a pillar. It was mostly a side licensing deal. Paris has been bought out, Shanghai didn’t exist and HK was being actively buried. It was not broken out separately.


It’s not where the company was but where it is going. I feel it’s infinitely more secure with Linear finally sunsetting as the lead pillar.

I admittedly don't follow the corporate news that closely, but my general evaluation of the Iger era is very similar.

Sure, I wouldn't say that it has been a great period for the domestic parks, particularly WDW. Overall, though, Disney has come through a very challenging period for media companies as one of the main winners that has avoided being swallowed up by another company and selectively dismembered (which was a very distinct possibility) and looks to be viable going forward. The decline of linear is what it is, but I am honestly surprised how Disney has managed to position itself as one of the main players in DTC. It may never generate the revenue linear did, but that decline in revenue was going to happen either way and Disney now seems pretty secure moving on from it.

I am not a fan of the all the upcharges and many of the new additions at the parks. I have to give them credit, though, for keeping those things humming along even during challenging periods. Put Disney's results next to Comcast's, and you certainly don't see the latter streaking ahead and Disney being left in the dust as a lot of the commentary on here would suggest, even with the opening of Epic.

I get people thinking the parks are being mismanaged. Talk about the company overall having been run into the ground by Iger, though, seems a little absurd.

 

[MisterPenguin]

OMG! They're saying that linear TV and cord-cutting is a significant parameter of the company's bottom line and why Disney is doubling down on streaming!!!

Who knew?!?

Besides everyone, that is. For the past six years.

That's when I stopped watching. Such amateurish analysis. And also... 53 minutes long?! Nobody's got time for that!!

Tho, I'd watch it if it were just the duck.

 

[CoastalElite64]

OMG! They're saying that linear TV and cord-cutting is a significant parameter of the company's bottom line and why Disney is doubling down on streaming!!!

Who knew?!?

Besides everyone, that is. For the past six years.

That's when I stopped watching. Such amateurish analysis. And also... 53 minutes long?! Nobody's got time for that!!

Tho, I'd watch it if it were just the duck.

The Duck is the most knowledgeable one. The commentary on sports was good though. I didn't realize what a big scoop that was for Disney. Iger outplayed Netflix and Amazon.