News Disney’s Q2 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast

[Kamikaze]

I wonder what the effects of that will be. Would it have a bigger effect on Disneyland or magic kingdom?

None.

 

[Kamikaze]

Operation costs actually increased. So not really cost cutting.

They definitely do cost cutting. And its usually silly stuff (ending most of the Avenger's Campus shows at DCA, for example), but operational costs have other factors that will increase them.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Disneyland is busy all the time. I really feel like it’ll surpass MK soon enough.

If EPIC can pull some folks away from MK, it’s possible DLR may take that top spot.

Let’s see what happens.

 

[JD80]

They definitely do cost cutting. And its usually silly stuff (ending most of the Avenger's Campus shows at DCA, for example), but operational costs have other factors that will increase them.

Sure but I'm just speaking from a macro level.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Is that occupancy of available inventory, or of total inventory?

Excellent point. Does Disney take rooms out on inventory? It makes sense from a operational standpoint; a room is taken out of inventory, its not ever rented, no people ever in it, no housekeeping or maintenance needed while its out of inventory.

And taking rooms out of inventory of course as you say, helps with the occupancy numbers reported.

This conspiracy theory has been debunked many times. In the SEC filings, Disney defines how they calculated hotel occupancy and there is no shenanigans going on.

Every quarter people claim the increased occupancy is due to some sort of hiding rooms -- with no proof at all. And if that was the case, there would be by now, no rooms left at all as they take more and more rooms off of the market quarter after quarter.

Also, if that were the case, just like every grand conspiracy theory, it strains credulity that such a conspiracy can continue with so many people involved all keeping the secret, and no one blowing the whistle on it for years and years.

However, if you think there are shenanigans in their SEC filing, you should definitely call SEC and drop the dime on them.

Kinda surprised all the people claiming this conspiracy is real haven't done so. Or shareholders who keep suing Disney for specious reasons haven't latched on to this.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

Operation costs actually increased. So not really cost cutting.

I assure you Disney is cost cutting where possible.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Bringing this from the Abu Dhabi thread so it's not off topic....

This deal concerns me a little bit, as it might telegraph that Disney is in a bit of a cash crunch. Leasing out IP is known to be strictly a cash generator and not a brand builder. Iger straight out said today that “This is essentially a license arrangement with considerable involvement from us," Iger said. "We will have employees embedded in the organization with them, to help them operate a Disney theme park at the quality level that everybody's used to." This doesn’t sound like someone trying to build onto a brand, it sounds like someone trying to convince everyone that it won’t hurt the brand. If I had to guess, I would say that Disney is preparing themselves for a potential downturn in the economy.

Disney's 2nd Quarter report dropped today. They are not in a cash crunch. They profited $3B.

In one quarter.

Up half a billion from 2Q 2024.

Rearview mirror stuff, from bookings long ago. 2024 business means nothing now. This is economics 101. My sources say that future bookings are down, some say by quite a bit. With all of the discounting going on (and it’s across the board) I kind of figured Disney would sell off some IP to ensure some positive cash flow, either that or secure another credit line.

Again, it's *licensing* their IP, not "selling it off."

Also, there's this...

Hugh:

Bookings right now for WDW for the 3rd Q are up 4%, and that's with about what we would say 80% in.​

​

And for the 4th Q, bookings are up 7% that's probably somewhere 50 and 60% in at this point.​

So, my source is their CFO. What's your source?

 

[Disstevefan1]

This conspiracy theory has been debunked many times. In the SEC filings, Disney defines how they calculated hotel occupancy and there is no shenanigans going on.

Every quarter people claim the increased occupancy is due to some sort of hiding rooms -- with no proof at all. And if that was the case, there would be by now, no rooms left at all as they take more and more rooms off of the market quarter after quarter.

Also, if that were the case, just like every grand conspiracy theory, it strains credulity that such a conspiracy can continue with so many people involved all keeping the secret, and no one blowing the whistle on it for years and years.

However, if you think there are shenanigans in their SEC filing, you should definitely call SEC and drop the dime on them.

Kinda surprised all the people claiming this conspiracy is real haven't done so. Or shareholders who keep suing Disney for specious reasons haven't latched on to this.

I was just asking the question. Thanks for confirming for all of us this is not happening.

TDWC, DVC and its theme parks are.............. Invincible (no winky emoji)

 

[JD80]

I assure you Disney is cost cutting where possible.

I mean all businesses look to operate lean for the most part. People get bonuses for reducing operational costs.

 

[Kamikaze]

Sure but I'm just speaking from a macro level.

But its still wrong.

They DO cut costs where they can (and sometimes where they shouldn't). That doesn't mean overall costs don't increase.

Uni is opening a third park, that means the operational costs are going up, lets call it by 33%. That doesn't mean they aren't limiting other things in other areas, cutting costs there while still having a higher operational budget.

Increased operational costs are not always bad.

 

[easyrowrdw]

We don't have TEA numbers for 2024 but we're still a few million off peak 2019.

And if occupancy holds north of 90% you'll understand why the CFO said what he said last quarter.

90% occupancy is 2018 and 2019 crowds.

If summer is soft but annual occupancy numbers are high then the fall and winter are going to be nuts.

Maybe so. But don't more guests still stay off-site? If those numbers aren't following, then the crowds might not either. Maybe? I guess we'll find out in a few months.

This conspiracy theory has been debunked many times. In the SEC filings, Disney defines how they calculated hotel occupancy and there is no shenanigans going on.

Every quarter people claim the increased occupancy is due to some sort of hiding rooms -- with no proof at all. And if that was the case, there would be by now, no rooms left at all as they take more and more rooms off of the market quarter after quarter.

Also, if that were the case, just like every grand conspiracy theory, it strains credulity that such a conspiracy can continue with so many people involved all keeping the secret, and no one blowing the whistle on it for years and years.

I also recall folks saying a while back that Disney had taken rooms out of inventory. It wasn't as a conspiracy theory, but to help with staffing. A byproduct was that it also made occupancy rates look better. But you're saying that even if rooms aren't available for booking (whether they're shuttered for staffing or refurbs or whatever) they're still counted in the denominator?

 

[Kamikaze]

I was just asking the question. Thanks for confirming for all of us this is not happening.

TDWC, DVC and its theme parks are.............. Invincible (no winky emoji)

Thanks for doing your great work, Joe Rogan.

And your little second line proves just how disingenuous you're being. I know 'alternative facts' are a thing, but unless you have some actual proof that there is some sort of fraud (SEC filing so thats the proper term) going on, probably time to just take the L and move on.

 

[Kamikaze]

I also recall folks saying a while back that Disney had taken rooms out of inventory. It wasn't as a conspiracy theory, but to help with staffing. A byproduct was that it also made occupancy rates look better. But you're saying that even if rooms aren't available for booking (whether they're shuttered for staffing or refurbs or whatever) they're still counted in the denominator?

This happened during COVID and the recovery/restaffing afterward. It is no longer the case.

 

[Kamikaze]

If EPIC can pull some folks away from MK, it’s possible DLR may take that top spot.

Let’s see what happens.

Epic Universe will not decrease MK attendance.

It could possibly pull from Epcot, DHS, DAK, but MK it won't affect in the slightest.

 

[easyrowrdw]

This happened during COVID and the recovery/restaffing afterward. It is no longer the case.

Thanks. I was thinking of comments more recently than that (the last year or two), but perhaps those posters were mistaken. Or maybe my memory is shot lol

 

[Kamikaze]

Thanks. I was thinking of comments more recently than that (the last year or two), but perhaps those posters were mistaken. Or maybe my memory is shot lol

They do take rooms out of inventory for refurbishment, etc. But those are reflected in the reports. Occasionally individual rooms will be taken out (showerhead breaks, toilet needs to be snaked, etc) but those are short term. Neither really has to do with staffing. Looking at The Hub, it appears they are basically fully staffed in Housekeeping currently.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Thanks for doing your great work, Disstevefan1 Joe Rogan.

And your little second line proves just how disingenuous you're being. I know 'alternative facts' are a thing, but unless you have some actual proof that there is some sort of fraud (SEC filing so thats the proper term) going on, probably time to just take the L and move on.

FIFY.

Thanks for your thoughtful comments.

Again, I was just asking the question (notice the question mark) in reply to someone's post.

Yes, I make jokes about TWDC and there are many things Disney does to my beloved WDW I do not like, but I sincerely think TWDC, DVC and their theme parks are........ Invincible

It's ok if you don't believe me.

TWDC and @MisterPenguin thanks you for your support <----- winky emoji means I am joking.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Epic Universe will not decrease MK attendance.

I get you, even if folks visit to go to EPIC and they make one visit to WDW it will probably be MK.

Lets see what happens

 

[Stripes]

Here is another selection from the Comcast CFO's Q1 2025 prepared remarks:

"Looking past these pre-opening costs, underlying results in the quarter indicated stable trends in Orlando, giving us confidence that we are entering the Epic launch from a position of strength.

In addition, performance at our International parks remained strong and within our expectations, but we are seeing softness in Hollywood due to the aftermath of the wildfires and our proximity to these areas, which impacted our results in the first quarter, and we expect the recovery at Universal Hollywood to be a gradual one."

This statement seems incongruent with your original analysis that "Universal is seeing significant attendance declines on both coasts." Moreover, Universal Orlando's was already beginning to recover from its attendance slump in Q4. From the Comcast CFO's Q4 2024 prepared remarks:

"In Parks, we're seeing some stabilization after a slowdown in the second and third quarters. Adjusted for Epic pre-opening costs of around $35 million, EBITDA in the fourth quarter was flat year over year with attendance trends improving across most of our Parks including Orlando, solidifying the foundation for our opening of Epic Universe in May."

The second and third quarters of FY 2024 were the ones with the noticeable drop off in revenue. In Comcast's Q1 2025, the cause of the domestic attendance decline shifted from a lull in theme park demand (which Disney wrestled with in their Q3 and Q4) to other factors including the L.A. Wildfires. If there is a real weak link here, it has to be Universal Hollywood. Attendance declines there could be quite dramatic.

I’m sorry but the spin from the executives doesn’t make sense. The numbers don’t lie.

Blaming the wildfires on USH’s poor attendance may pass muster for this recent quarter (I think they are exaggerating the effect) but it doesn’t explain prior declines.

Orlando’s attendance has been falling for 2 years according to Comcast’s own earnings reports. The execs say they saw “some stabilization” in the decline, but nonetheless, attendance in Orlando declined even further according to their own FY24 Q4 earnings report.

 

[Kamikaze]

FIFY.

Thanks for your thoughtful comments.

Again, I was just asking the question (notice the question mark) in reply to someone's post.

Yes, I make jokes about TWDC and there are many things Disney does to my beloved WDW I do not like, but I sincerely think TWDC, DVC and their theme parks are........ Invincible

It's ok if you don't believe me.

TWDC and @MisterPenguin thanks you for your support <----- winky emoji means I am joking.

Big guy, denying facts and saying "I'm just asking questions" makes you the same as Joe Rogan.