Universal Epic Universe (South Expansion Complex) - Opens May 22 2025

[BrianLo]

You have a lot.of negative wishful thinking sprinkled in there. What evidence do you have that Epic's success ha come at the expense of the other two theme parks on property?

“Negative Wishful thinking”?

You are really, really stuck on your tribalism here.

My evidence is every other resort in the world that has introduced a new gate. Including Tokyo Disney. Resort wide attendance takes a long time to reach the multiples that a new gate eventually grows towards, that’s the whole point.

 

[BrianLo]

You have a lot of negative wishful thinking sprinkled in there. What evidence do you have that Epic's success has come at the expense of the other two theme parks on property? You are free to make a prediction but your beginning states like that is what has happened, and...not yet at all.

You’ve edited your post. Like I said, the evidence is every other multiple gate introduction… ever. Even our venerated Epcot and Tokyo DisneySea (which meaningfully suppressed Tokyo Disneyland for 14 years).

What do you think will happen? My numbers are grounded in past comps.

 

[TalkingHead]

What is the issue here? (I've never seen the films)

Guessing but maybe the actor is too old. Isn’t the character supposed to be youngish?

 

[SplashJacket]

I’m not guessing. The world’s most expensive theme park has lousy capacity.

Visitation can exceed capacity. A theme park isn’t like a theater where there is a strict limit. People visit for partial days. Nor do theme parks have a legally defined capacity. It is based on attraction throughput, but the operator is free to exceed their program criteria.

Whether or not it’s a guess, your capacity claim is factually untrue.

 

[celluloid]

You’ve edited your post. Like I said, the evidence is every other multiple gate introduction… ever. Even our venerated Epcot and Tokyo DisneySea (which meaningfully suppressed Tokyo Disneyland for 14 years).

View attachment 854052

What do you think will happen? My numbers are grounded in past comps.

I see what you are saying. It is not a cost concern for the business. You made it sound like it was some tragic thingor a concern to watch for to gague success. New park is going to sell hotter than the others for the company pool is not really a concern or shock. And this time, which has never lccured before, not just multiple day tickets but new to the game...these are frequently APs who paid for their ticket days admission to EPIC...and will spend their other days at the other parks they can enter gratis.

 

[celluloid]

Guessing but maybe the actor is too old. Isn’t the character supposed to be youngish?

Well for sure older than hiccup and some are going to have stronger resemblance than others. I never hold Disney or other such face character casting that harsh as I know they are all going to start as adults and a talent pool is not infinite and some sound better, act better and by luck look more the part.
I don't see any character integrity clashing level concerns e ough to share a TikTok unless we are really reaching now.

 

[BrianLo]

I see what you are saying. It is not a cost concern for the business. You made it sound likemit was some tragic thing. New park is gojng to sell hotter than the others for the company pool is not really a concern or shock.

I actually think extrapolating TDS (two versus three)- that gives us 1.25X for a third gate; it would be a benchmark of major success. Because that’s essentially how TDS impacts the attendance pattern in a two gate scenario. Which is why I said it depends what you think. I think the only reason what I say is “tragic” is if you expect USF/IOA to buck every known historical trend. Ironically, that would be wishful.

8.5M a piece would be very successful and represents a 1.25X multiple for the resort as a whole from 2019 levels. I’ll be kind to them and not use the 2022 levels as more of a false peak and technically this projects expectations would have been set more by the past measurement.

So 25.5M resort wide (in a full 2026 operating year) and I think they’ll have done very well.

 

[celluloid]

So 25.5M resort wide (in a full 2026 operating year) and I think they’ll have done very well.

As stated before, every poster is going to have their own definitions of what "seismic" shift in travel patterns are.

 

[celluloid]

Whether or not it’s a guess, your capacity claim is factually untrue.

It's baffling arrogance isn't it? Thanks for bringing up the fact.

20,000 was so low off the mark. Even DCA opening era and Uni Cali, both smaller in acres have higher daily attendance capacity.

It is like there was a new stance being framed that the park is only selling out ticket options due to low attendance capacity.

 

[BrianLo]

As stated before, every poster is going to have their own definitions of what "seismic" shift in travel patterns are.

I know… I’m rather curious what you expect, which is why I keep probing.

I don’t think it’s trapping you at this point now that I’ve given you a lot of good context to chew on.

 

[celluloid]

I know… I’m rather curious what you expect, which is why I keep probing.

I never said there would definitely be a seismic shift.
I brought up the question to someone who used the nebulous term. I would probe them those inquiries. It is a buzz word.

What I know is Uni made an educated business choice to grow themselves and earn their resort more money and made some things people mostly are really digging.
The various ways their success will profit is their data and attendance will be interesting to see for sake of what a new park may bring in.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

You have a lot of negative wishful thinking sprinkled in there. What evidence do you have that Epic's success has come at the expense of the other two theme parks on property? You are free to make a prediction but your beginning states like that is what has happened, and...not yet at all.

It’s also a matter of math. You’d have to have a 100% add-on rate for returning existing visitors (aka expecting all 8-10 million of them to pay for a third ticket) or make up that number with a huge swath of new guests. Plus it’s not clear how willing new guests are to spend a 2nd and 3rd day at IOA/USF.

 

[ryno1982]

I'm not sure I believe this, but for the sake of argument, it's also possible Epic Universe steals attendance from other area parks and not just the Universal ones. Maybe people that otherwise would spend a week at WDW might consider splitting between Disney and Universal for instance.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

I'm not sure I believe this, but for the sake of argument, it's also possible Epic Universe steals attendance from other area parks and not just the Universal ones. Maybe people that otherwise would spend a week at WDW might consider splitting between Disney and Universal for instance.

This is probably true, but is a little more difficult to predict/measure.

 

[celluloid]

It’s also a matter of math. You’d have to have a 100% add-on rate for returning existing visitors (aka expecting all 8-10 million of them to pay for a third ticket) or make up that number with a huge swath of new guests. Plus it’s not clear how willing new guests are to spend a 2nd and 3rd day at IOA/USF.

Yeah that is a dataset, but I imagine/figure(all we can do) pretty good considering the new park has been selling additional tickets constantly and daily as new Annual Passholders buy the add on for day(s) they want, and bejng a passholder would imply that they also are happy to, and are going to spend days in the other parks.

At what numbers, Uni knows, but for what we have now we see it is happening.

The first 20 some odd day of the parks are sold out and it is fair to say a good number of them going or AP holders who bought their add on(s)

 

[Disney Analyst]

What is the issue here? (I've never seen the films)

He looks like a 45 year old man?

 

[celluloid]

This is probably true, but is a little more difficult to predict/measure.

Yes, but also, along with shift in guest spending, is what matters the most from a competition sense. As you said, not easy at consumer level to measure outside of educated guessing.

 

[BrianLo]

I never said there would definitely be a seismic shift.
I brought up the question to someone who used the nebulous term. I would probe them those inquiries. It is a buzz word.

What I know is Uni made an educated business choice to grow themselves and earn their resort more money and made some things people mostly are really digging.
The various ways their success will profit is their data and attendance will be interesting to see for sake of what a new park may bring in.

Fair enough!

Just know I’m not actually the tribal enemy. I’m not actually setting benchmarks to be negative.

They are realistic so no one can clap back about how “horrible” Universal attendance is (because parks didn’t overtake Epcot + US/IOA decline) and that it’s actually expected and the plan.

Some of the comments being made here extrapolate attendance expectancy to 32-35M. That’s of course seismic, but also unhinged and unrealistic.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Whether or not it’s a guess, your capacity claim is factually untrue.

It is not. But I have also been told I was wrong about the cost of the park and that there’s not room for another. So be it.

 

[Disney Analyst]

He looks like a 45 year old man?

Just to clarify, no hate to the actor. But it’s off. It makes me think of old Peter Pan in the Chip & Dale movie.

Now this actor fits what I expect: