Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Opinion polls have always been conducted with small samples—that’s the very premise of them. I’m not denying that there have been glaring issues with some recent polls (I lived through Brexit, don’t forget), but the idea that they are today less useful or accurate than they were in past decades just isn’t borne out by the data. It has always been a mixed bag:

Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.

www.pewresearch.org

The problem, as is the case with everything it seems, is the frame of their use. Polls should never be taking as a “for sure” thing as has been framed the last decade by many. There is always a margin for error, which if I remember correctly is where most of the polls end up on their margins of “victory”, which shows just how inaccurate they’ve become. If your margin of victory is within your margin of error they are almost useless as they tell nothing of value.

It’s why that article I posted has some good insight into things over the last decade.

Anyways we’ve gotten way off in the weeds, so we should probably end this.

 

[LittleBuford]

There is always a margin for error, which if I remember correctly is where most of the polls end up on their margins of “victory”, which shows just how inaccurate they’ve become.

Again, they haven’t become inaccurate; they are as accurate (or inaccurate) as they’ve historically been.

Anyway, I agree it’s best to drop this.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Do you take offense at the constant insults and demonizations of those weaker then himself by the primary target of her comments, the most powerful man in the world?

Rent free. The source of your constant antagonism on this site is clear as day.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Ooh, that could be a fun one to do. Girl power leadership journeys battling it out against each other at the box office!

You're right, that's a similar tale of the tape when you compare those two bombs against each other. It's almost eerie how closely they are aligned in production budget and opening weekend's, and then to see that The Marvels didn't even crack $200 Million globally. Obviously they are two different genres, but the box office numbers line up almost perfectly so far.

Hell, is it possible Snow White doesn't even get to $200 Million globally now? Just 20 minutes ago I was hesitant to peg it as newly downgraded to only $250 Million. But now $200 Million-ish instead?!?

I'm still thinking we'll see a relatively solid upcoming week as a lot of children are on Spring Break still, so I'm going to go with a newly downgraded $225 Million globally. Maybe? If you sort of squint at it?

View attachment 850870

Pacing with the Marvels there, thus why 100m is doubted domestically. Depending on the harshness of next week's dropoff, breaking 80 mil is in question right now.

 

[Miss Rori]

You're right, that's a similar tale of the tape when you compare those two bombs against each other. It's almost eerie how closely they are aligned in production budget and opening weekend's, and then to see that The Marvels didn't even crack $200 Million globally. Obviously they are two different genres, but the box office numbers line up almost perfectly so far.

And in between those, Wish just came up short of $255 million total, because there was a fair deal of international interest compared to the truly miserable North American take (which Snow White has already beat in two weeks). If it weren't for how well the Inside Out and Moana sequels did, you'd think Disney had no idea how to market female-centric movies at all anymore. If they overhyped/merchandised Wish, they completely fumbled the bag on Snow White with only a few tie-ins, especially compared to how well Universal made that work for Wicked Part One.

Hell, is it possible Snow White doesn't even get to $200 Million globally now? Just 20 minutes ago I was hesitant to peg it as newly downgraded to only $250 Million. But now $200 Million-ish instead?!?

I'm still thinking we'll see a relatively solid upcoming week as a lot of children are on Spring Break still, so I'm going to go with a newly downgraded $225 Million globally. Maybe? If you sort of squint at it?

At my local cornfed five-screener, Captain America: Brave New World still has a screen to itself and won't leave until Thursday. Snow White will still occupy a screen this coming weekend while A Minecraft Movie gets two, A Working Man one, and the other screen mostly will be occupied by The Chosen Season 4 episode drops. As Vegas Disney Fan notes, the "big" movies just have not been there this winter/spring, no rising tide to lift the boats the way that Dune Part Two, Kung Fu Panda 4, and Godzilla X Kong did last March/April.

I am curious as to how big A Minecraft Movie can be under the current circumstances. Things are tough all over, and I've wondered if families, faced with having to choose between that movie and Snow White, simply decided on Minecraft en masse.

 

[Disney Irish]

I am curious as to how big A Minecraft Movie can be under the current circumstances. Things are tough all over, and I've wondered if families, faced with having to choose between that movie and Snow White, simply decided on Minecraft en masse.

I'm beginning to wonder if how down the economy in general has been this first quarter, especially consumer confidence, if families are just skipping movies all together. We'll see how Minecraft does, but I won't be surprised if that opens soft as well.

But if it doesn't open well we may be looking at no big break out hit until possibly summer.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

John Carter, The Marvels, and other bombs reaching out to Snow White "Join us..."

 

[Chi84]

I'm beginning to wonder if how down the economy in general has been this first quarter, especially consumer confidence, if families are just skipping movies all together. We'll see how Minecraft does, but I won't be surprised if that opens soft as well.

But if it doesn't open well we may be looking at no big break out hit until possibly summer.

That’s true. The economy has does have an effect on discretionary spending.

 

[erasure fan1]

Did better internationally than domestically this week, that should help in the long run. I was starting to question if it would be a 50/50 split and struggle to even break $200 million but now that it’s starting to look a little more normal (40/60) on the dom/intl breakdown I think $250 is still realistic.

Wouldn't if it became 40/60 it make it harder to break even? On average, don't most studios only get around 40% from international?

That also though makes the assumption that she was wishing harm, or ill as you say, on people, which I do not make that assumption. Never know peace can also mean to wrestle with ones decisions, and that is what I take her post to mean.

That's true. But don't you see the flaw in what you are saying? You're also assuming she wasn't wishing harm. So with her established feelings for the current POTUS, would it be that far fetched for people to think she was wishing harm? I don't think it is in my opinion. Neither one of us can no for sure. As well as no one on this site can know. And that's a big part of the problem. The dismissal of anything that isn't she wasn't wrong, her comments didn't matter, it didn't have any affect on box office.

Then you get ignorance like "I have decided that 97.7% of the US population was deeply offended by Zegler’s comments". Yea because anyone said that. It's the complete dismissal that's the problem. When in truth, it's probably not everyone and it's definitely not no one. So what percentage is anyone's guess. My opinion as I've said, I think it did have some sway and I do think she had bad intentions with her comments. People can disagree with the amounts, but not that it wasn't happening.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Wouldn't if it became 40/60 it make it harder to break even? On average, don't most studios only get around 40% from international?

That's true. But don't you see the flaw in what you are saying? You're also assuming she wasn't wishing harm. So with her established feelings for the current POTUS, would it be that far fetched for people to think she was wishing harm? I don't think it is in my opinion. Neither one of us can no for sure. As well as no one on this site can know. And that's a big part of the problem. The dismissal of anything that isn't she wasn't wrong, her comments didn't matter, it didn't have any affect on box office.

Then you get ignorance like "I have decided that 97.7% of the US population was deeply offended by Zegler’s comments". Yea because anyone said that. It's the complete dismissal that's the problem. When in truth, it's probably not everyone and it's definitely not no one. So what percentage is anyone's guess. My opinion as I've said, I think it did have some sway and I do think she had bad intentions with her comments. People can disagree with the amounts, but not that it wasn't happening.

This seems to be pretty close to the exact opposite of the arguments you’ve made about the initial two-year-long hate campaign prompted by Zegler’s race, which you’ve dismissed as entirely marginal and without impact - right up until that campaign found and amplified comments that put a more socially acceptable spin on hating her, and then apparently it becomes just absurd to question their impact or dismiss them.

 

[Disney Irish]

That's true. But don't you see the flaw in what you are saying? You're also assuming she wasn't wishing harm. So with her established feelings for the current POTUS, would it be that far fetched for people to think she was wishing harm? I don't think it is in my opinion. Neither one of us can no for sure. As well as no one on this site can know. And that's a big part of the problem. The dismissal of anything that isn't she wasn't wrong, her comments didn't matter, it didn't have any affect on box office.

Then you get ignorance like "I have decided that 97.7% of the US population was deeply offended by Zegler’s comments". Yea because anyone said that. It's the complete dismissal that's the problem. When in truth, it's probably not everyone and it's definitely not no one. So what percentage is anyone's guess. My opinion as I've said, I think it did have some sway and I do think she had bad intentions with her comments. People can disagree with the amounts, but not that it wasn't happening.

I never claimed that I wasn't assuming. I just said I don't automatically assume that she was wishing harm. Because as the saying goes innocent until proven guilty. So unless you can prove that she was indeed wishing harm on people with that post, beyond just that its your belief, I'm not going to ever agree that was her intent. As your own misunderstanding of my own posts just in our own interactions here shows its very easy to put our own biases and such into a post without it ever being true to what the author intended.

Plus not for nothing, she has not shown an ounce of actual hate in anything she's ever posted before or since. She got emotional and made a stupid post that should have never been made. But that doesn't mean there was actual hate behind it. So at the very least I think she should be given the benefit of doubt here.

As far as impact, I never claimed it was nothing. I'm sure its had some impact, how much is debatable. But I don't subscribe to the belief that its the primary or even majority of the reason why the film has done badly. As I've always said, its death by a thousand cuts type of situation. No one thing caused its to do badly, and no one thing has helped it either and probably never will.

 

[LittleBuford]

You're also assuming she wasn't wishing harm. So with her established feelings for the current POTUS, would it be that far fetched for people to think she was wishing harm? I don't think it is in my opinion. Neither one of us can no for sure.

If by “harm” you mean violence, we can indeed be sure she wasn’t wishing it. Not that what she was wishing—mental anguish—was especially kind. But let’s at least be precise in our characterisations.

 

[Casper Gutman]

If by “harm” you mean violence, we can indeed be sure she wasn’t wishing it. Not that what she was wishing—mental anguish—was especially kind. But let’s at least be precise in our characterisations.

I took it as a poorly-judged variation on Mencken’s “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”

 

[WorldExplorer]

For the record, I looked up the Not-Prince to try and find the dude's opinions on world events that have nothing to do with acting and if he feels there are any groups of his fellow countryman that deserve suffering.

So far I have found none of that. I'm not sure if the dude even has an X account, I can't find it.

Odd.

Maybe he just deleted all of it.

 

[LittleBuford]

To be clear, these are the remarks that Zegler cited and echoed. They were written by the singer Ethel Cain:

I hope that peace never finds you. Instead, I hope clarity strikes you someday like a clap of lightning and you have to live the rest of your life with the knowledge and guilt of what you’ve done and who you are as a person.​

Obviously, this is not a kind thing to wish on people. And it’s perfectly reasonable to argue that wanting others to feel mental anguish is itself a form of wishing harm (I would actually say that it is). But please, please let’s not pretend that there is any threat or implication here of physical violence.

 

[LittleBuford]

For the record, I looked up the Not-Prince to try and find the dude's opinions on major world events and if he feels there are any groups of his fellow countryman that deserve suffering.

So far I have found none of that. I'm not sure if the dude even has an X account, I can't find it.

Odd.

Maybe he just deleted all of it.

Do you mean Andrew Burnap? Why would you think he’d posted anything controversial?

 

[LittleBuford]

That also though makes the assumption that she was wishing harm, or ill as you say, on people, which I do not make that assumption.

I’m working my way backwards—I would have quoted you first if I’d seen this sooner. Wishing harm and wishing ill are not necessarily synonymous, and I don’t think it’s fair to @Vegas Disney Fan to treat them as such. Zegler did wish ill on the voters she referred to; his characterisation was accurate.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m working my way backwards—I would have quoted you first if I’d seen this sooner. Wishing harm and wishing ill are not necessarily synonymous, and I don’t think it’s fair to @Vegas Disney Fan to treat them as such. Zegler did wish ill on the voters she referred to; his characterisation was accurate.

In the context of their post however as the example they are providing I would treat them as the same words, as wishing ill on someone can also be defined as wishing harm.

So while I appreciate what you’re saying, I think in this context it’s fine. Not that I would ever think that poster would wish harm on anyone, it’s just the example they used.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I don’t know what we are talking about.

I just know that even though we don’t agree on a lot of things on these forums, my general sense is that almost everyone here is a good person.

I don’t want to call them out, but for example sometimes when Casper posts I actually smack myself in the head. That being said I would bet Casper is an excellent person. Everyone’s ideology is shaped by our experiences. I did not grow up like Casper and Vice Versa. I know I myself regrettably get grumpy on these boards. It’s just because in my eyes I see the destruction of the company I love happening right before me. That being said I have to respect that some people think Disney is making the correct choices and want to argue that side of it.

In other words I still have some growing up to do when it comes to respecting others points of view.

Hopefully I get to it, before I’m dead.

Just wanted to say that I respect you, Trauma. You’re honest about your opinions and that makes productive discussion possible.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Pedro Pascal over on Instagram supporting Zegler.