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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
The increase in doses is definitely good but still only 5 million complete series worth per week. It needs to get to at least twice that pretty soon because even at the increased rate, it will take over a year to vaccinate the entire adult population.
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There will be an increase, even without JnJ. Moderna and Pfizer just confirmed they are on target to deliver 220M doses by 3/31. 41M doses are already delivered so there’s 179M left to go in the 9 weeks left before 3/31. That’s an average of just under 20M doses a week needed to hit the targets they both just confirmed. So the pace is expected to double or more than double in the coming weeks.

Then potentially throw in JnJ approval which is another potential 10M doses a week starting in March and those will actually vaccinate 10M people completely each week. So it could be up to 30M doses a week starting in March if JnJ is approved or enough to vaccinate 20M people completely each week. That’s 4 times the pace of the 10M shots a week announced.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
JAKECOTCenter said:
Since the supply will be increasing, maybe Disney will ease restrictions earlier say like April or May? Epcot monorail will surely be back soon now
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I thought the EPCOT monorail might come back when park hopping was added back, but never happened. Poly is still closed until the summer except the DVC rooms but I can’t imagine they wait that long. Who knows. They were adding the dividers to allow use of more seating on monorails so maybe that helps.
 
sullyinMT

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
JAKECOTCenter said:
I'm guessing the first restrictions to go will be the ugly (but safe) plastic dividers in the express monorail
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I hope you’re right that they’ll eventually go. Not overly intrusive on Rise, they’re bad to horrible on everything else. And they’re the pinnacle of security theater on ride vehicles.

They may stick around a little longer in switchbacks if we get to a point where 6ft becomes 3 or 4 before all is said and done (not saying it will).

I actually see them sticking longer term, like maybe even years, at places like check in counters at hotels and cashier stands. Once masks are gone these protect everyone from the “escape sneeze,” even if the offending party isn’t contagious.
 
G

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
sullivan.kscott said:
I hope you’re right that they’ll eventually go. Not overly intrusive on Rise, they’re bad to horrible on everything else. And they’re the pinnacle of security theater on ride vehicles.

They may stick around a little longer in switchbacks if we get to a point where 6ft becomes 3 or 4 before all is said and done (not saying it will).

I actually see them sticking longer term, like maybe even years, at places like check in counters at hotels and cashier stands. Once masks are gone these protect everyone from the “escape sneeze,” even if the offending party isn’t contagious.
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I see the whole social distancing concept fade away before not wearing masks occurs.
 
DisneyDebRob

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
GimpYancIent said:
I see the whole social distancing concept fade away before not wearing masks occurs.
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Isn’t that happening now? But I agree, masks will be here awhile. I already see the 6ft turning into 3 and less when I’m out. I hear the stories about Disney also. Hopefully people will try and continue the distancing.. we have a long way to go but will get there if we stay the course.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
AstraZeneca efficacy issues. Actually it may just be the German Government using the wrong numbers: ( The Germans messed up in what was efficacy [They used the participation percent)

www.theguardian.com

Germany challenges AstraZeneca Covid vaccine efficacy reports

Report said ministers expected EU regulator’s assessment to show jab was only 8% effective among over-65s
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com


On a broader point:

Just some number crunching using classic herd immunity models :
Herd%Needed=(1/VaccineEfficacy)*(1-1/R0)
(Solved for R0) R0=1/(Herd%Vaccinated*VaccineEfficacy-1)




If
Efficacy is 95% (Moderna & JnJ) [Not including people that have had covid)
and
Population % Vaccinated: 85%
Then the highest R0 that will still result in herd immunity is: 5.19

If
Efficacy is 50.4% (Sinovac vaccine):
and Population % vaccinated: 100% (Almost unachievable)
Then the highest R0 that will still result in herd immunity is 2.01

Luckily I think the JnJ will be closer to the Mrna vaccines than the classic Chinese vaccine(Sinovac 50.4%) in efficacy. We will know within a week.

While Astrazeneca has had a hard time with their studies, so we will see.
 
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D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
JAKECOTCenter said:
The stretching room will be back. When social distancing is gone the Stretching Room will be the first thing to come back
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I will be glad when masks and social distancing are no longer mandated and Covid19 is effectively controlled. I like going in the Stretching room with total strangers and just hearing the sequence, laughing, and seeing and hearing peoples reactions to the pictures and the final ceiling sequence.

Hopefully that will happen once again later this year (Before my Wife's and my Premier Plus Passes expire).
 
matt9112

matt9112

Well-Known Member
Disney Experience said:
Attaining herd immunity is definitely more difficult if world population is vaccinated with Astrazenca vs (Pfizer or Moderna..both hard to deliver to third world). [Even worse if the 50.4% efficacy of the chinese vaccine is used]. If herd immunity is delayed a long time then breakout can occur. I hope JnJ has good efficacy and if so the world pop can get it vs something with lower efficacy.

It just means we may never be able to reduce covid to the level of polio in the modern world or eliminate it like smallpox. But we will likely be able to treat it, trace it, and perhaps contain it.

www.medrxiv.org

Immunisation, asymptomatic infection, herd immunity and the new variants of COVID 19

Objectives Is “herd immunity” to COVID-19 a realistic outcome of any immunisation programme with the two main vaccines currently licenced in the UK (Pfizer vaccine BNT162b2 and Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine ChAdOx1-S)? More formally, can these vaccines achieve a sufficient level of population...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Im pretty sure at some point vacines will be invented that can be at more normal temperatures....i assume there sill be a push for that....a check from the DRC or kenya cashes just as well.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Disney Experience said:
I will be glad when masks and social distancing are no longer mandated and Covid19 is effectively controlled. I like going in the Stretching room with total strangers and just hearing the sequence, laughing, and seeing and hearing peoples reactions to the pictures and the final ceiling sequence.

Hopefully that will happen once again later this year (Before my Wife's and my Premier Plus Passes expire).
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Amen. Can we make it before August? :cool:
 
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