Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
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Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022
This shows potential promise for an effective treatment fingers crossed

Indeed, good news. Here is one reported last week, though it is only based on lab studies so far, and not even mice let alone humans:
 
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Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022
This shows potential promise for an effective treatment fingers crossed
Interesting, but the study hasn't even been published, much less peer-reviewed yet. And it would only help keep patients off of ventilators.

If it pans out, this treatment with interferon is yet another tool to use in patients who are already hospitalized, but it won't have any effect in slowing the spread of the virus, which is our biggest COVID-related health problem in the US right now.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Why does this graph look so different from the one that @DCBaker posts? The trend is similar, but the # of tests is quite a bit different.

Read more about the methodology and download county-level data for coronavirus cases in the United States from The New York Times on GitHub.
Note: Data are based on reports by states and counties at the time of publication. Local governments may revise reported numbers as they get new information. Some deaths may be reported by officials in two different jurisdictions. When possible, deaths have been reported here in the jurisdiction where the death occurred.
Population and demographic data from Census Bureau.

 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
Strange.
Sounds like the US isn’t the only place with screwed up numbers. We all need to get our act together with the data and start reporting it properly. At least we had this from that article:

“The 'statistical flaw' should not drastically affect the total number of deaths but means the ongoing death tolls appear worse than the reality. “

So numbers are skewed but not a big overall difference.
 
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Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
Strange.
We discussed this story a few days ago... maybe last week? This article has a bit more context - even folks highlighting the issue suggest that, at its theoretical worst, it might have effected 2% of the count. Which is logical - how many folks had covid, recovered, and then were lost to something completely unrelated in what amounts to three weeks? The number should be statistically negligible. Putting everything else aside, this is one of the many stories where all you have to do is say. "let's look at the excess mortality year over year."
 

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
Sounds like the US isn’t the only place with screwed up numbers. We all need to get our act together with the data and start reporting it properly. At least we had this from that article:

“The 'statistical flaw' should not drastically affect the total number of deaths but means the ongoing death tolls appear worse than the reality. “

So numbers aren’t that skewed but still wrong.
The numbers will always be wrong, of course. We have thousands of organizations - labs, hospitals, health departments, bureaucracies - dealing with a life-threatening crisis, largely independently. Front-line folks collecting data are at constant risk. Noone has enough time. Central coordination is haphazard or non-existant.

In a few years we'll have a really good guess based on lots of evidence. Right now, we have broad trends, best guesses, and a degree of uncertainty.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022
This shows potential promise for an effective treatment fingers crossed

We hope. But just one place, not peer reviewed or replicated. Barely one step above anecdotal.


Indeed, good news. Here is one reported last week, though it is only based on lab studies so far, and not even mice let alone humans:

We hope. But just one place, not peer reviewed or replicated. Barely one step above anecdotal. Kinda fishy because the drug, outside of COVID, doesn't do the kind of things the article says it does, but, that may be the lack of medical understanding of the author.



Strange.

If there is consistent over reporting, there could also be consistent under reporting. Also, the amount that would be misrepresented is a drop in a bucket. Also, the number of deaths now compared to the average of previous years shows under reporting, not over reporting. Also, it's a call for a probe, which is not the same as a conclusive finding. So, yeah, very 'strange.' Thanks for pointing out really fishy news stories!




The world's leading epidemiologists don't know what the herd immunity number is needed for COVID, but this doctor knows?

Also:

How is it possible that COVID cases steeply dropped in all these places after just 20% of the population was infected? Can it strictly be explained by human behavior, such as social distancing and masking?

Yes, the answer is "yes." No need to suppose magical immunity. If that's your theory, find a way to test it before announcing to the world your wild conjecture.
 

NickMaio

Well-Known Member
Bahamas closes borders to U.S. tourists after COVID-19 cases spike; others still welcome -

"Less than three weeks after reopening its borders to international visitors, the Bahamas on Sunday announced that it is closing all of its airports and seaports to tourists from the United States, effective Wednesday."

Wow having lived in the Bahamas for 5 years....
This us quite a big deal. If you understand the politics there concerning Americans.
 

Yodascousin

Active Member
Bit
We hope. But just one place, not peer reviewed or replicated. Barely one step above anecdotal.




We hope. But just one place, not peer reviewed or replicated. Barely one step above anecdotal. Kinda fishy because the drug, outside of COVID, doesn't do the kind of things the article says it does, but, that may be the lack of medical understanding of the author.





If there is consistent over reporting, there could also be consistent under reporting. Also, the amount that would be misrepresented is a drop in a bucket. Also, the number of deaths now compared to the average of previous years shows under reporting, not over reporting. Also, it's a call for a probe, which is not the same as a conclusive finding. So, yeah, very 'strange.' Thanks for pointing out really fishy news stories!





The world's leading epidemiologists don't know what the herd immunity number is needed for COVID, but this doctor knows?

Also:

How is it possible that COVID cases steeply dropped in all these places after just 20% of the population was infected? Can it strictly be explained by human behavior, such as social distancing and masking?

Yes, the answer is "yes." No need to suppose magical immunity. If that's your theory, find a way to test it before announcing to the world your wild conjecture.
In response to my article that’s a bit harsh to say I was trying to post something positive to those that may be reading and having anxiety over all this I think there’s a bit more to it then “ barely one step above anecdotal” the article itself even states it’s not peer reviewed yet and it’s early days but treatments have to start somewhere and this has shown more promise then other treatments.
 

Yodascousin

Active Member
Interesting, but the study hasn't even been published, much less peer-reviewed yet. And it would only help keep patients off of ventilators.

If it pans out, this treatment with interferon is yet another tool to use in patients who are already hospitalized, but it won't have any effect in slowing the spread of the virus, which is our biggest COVID-related health problem in the US right now.
The results from phase 1 of the Oxford vaccine are also in and that is showing great potential to help stop the spread if both a viable treatment and vaccine are both just a few months away it’s a reason to be a bit more positive then yesterday :)
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
You guys get the lockdowns reinstated yet?
Sadly, it seems to be headed more and more that way. People refuse to follow even simple basic rules. I’d like to think we could do better, but I’m being proven wrong each day. Aside from my own selfish desire to not go back to stay at home orders, the economic impact is going to be devastating. I do hope that we can avoid full stay at home orders and just circle back to a more hybrid version where more additional things are allowed than back in March/April.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
Sadly, it seems to be headed more and more that way. People refuse to follow even simple basic rules. I’d like to think we could do better, but I’m being proven wrong each day. Aside from my own selfish desire to not go back to stay at home orders, the economic impact is going to be devastating. I do hope that we can avoid full stay at home orders and just circle back to a more hybrid version where more additional things are allowed than back in March/April.
We are only heading back to lockdowns if leaders learned literally nothing in the past 5 months. I know there is a staggering amount of incompetence flying about, so maybe you are right, but god I hope not. The cost is too great.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
We are only heading back to lockdowns if leaders learned literally nothing in the past 5 months. I know there is a staggering amount of incompetence flying about, so maybe you are right, but god I hope not. The cost is too great.
I don’t disagree. Unfortunately there’s a great deal of incompetence and to some extent a lack of self control or discipline or whatever you want to call it on the part of a lot of people. Looking back now it’s obvious we should have had a more consistent plan to emerge from the original stay at home orders. If we opened things back up with a national mask policy and a consistent and science based approach (Including a robust, national plan for testing and tracing going forward) one of 2 things would have happened: 1) it would have worked and the economy and public health situation would be much better right now, or 2) we Would be right where we are today and at least we would know for sure that the plan didn’t work. Instead we had this half assed approach which was inconsistently applied and has not been a great success. We don’t really know much more now than we did May 1 which is truly a waste. Now we have really serious decisions to make on things like opening schools and we are doing the same thing. No consistent plan except to not let the science get in the way. Come on, we can do a lot better and learn from the last mistake.
 
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