Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Wendy Pleakley]

Wicked for good has poor domestic legs for this time of year, you can see it pretty visually in my chart above.

I’m not trying to relentlessly pick on it, but it’s been very frontloaded.



I find when sequel do worse is more typically when the original movie itself wasn’t the original material. It’s more like the first movie gets the built up positivity that normally would be reserved for the sequel.

Ie Disney remakes, or in the case of Wicked -the first movie benefited from the demand of the musical. On the other hand - everything above were sequels to original first takes.

Which means if I’m a betting man, expect big things out of Coco 2 and not big things out of the Moana live action movie, because Moana 2 stole that thunder.

Then the other trend is bofo box office for part twos of longer running final beloved movie franchises.

Wicked seems to be best known for 'Defying Gravity', which is part of the popular culture, even for people not familiar with the musical.

With the first movie having that big moment that the broader audience came out for in part, it's likely there just isn't the same interest in part 2, which is completely unknown.

There's also something to be said for a longer gap between movies, to rebuild audience anticipation. Not always the case, but for some people it might have been a feeling of "we saw Wicked last year, let's see something different this year".

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I find when sequel do worse is more typically when the original movie itself wasn’t the original material. It’s more like the first movie gets the built up positivity that normally would be reserved for the sequel.

Ie Disney remakes, or in the case of Wicked -the first movie benefited from the demand of the musical. On the other hand - everything above were sequels to original first takes.

With the first movie having that big moment that the broader audience came out for in part, it's likely there just isn't the same interest in part 2, which is completely unknown.

Wicked: For Good is Act 2 of the same show that's been running since 2003. It is not totally unknown or some other new thing.

What happened with Wicked is unprecedented in the history of movie musical adaptations. It would be like if Sound of Music ended with the wedding, then a year later Sound of Music: Climb Every Mountain was released with the rest of it

There was no real indication of how good or bad Universal's strategy would pan out, beyond the same thing being done for some bestselling books that were not Broadway shows. It was a total gamble on their part

That it made less money than part one is likely a combination of many factors, several of which are inherit to the source, but not necessarily that this was some unwarranted, original, never before heard of sequel.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Wicked: For Good is Act 2 of the same show that's been running since 2003. It is not totally unknown or some other new thing.

What happened with Wicked is unprecedented in the history of movie musical adaptations. It would be like if Sound of Music ended with the wedding, then a year later Sound of Music: Climb Every Mountain was released with the rest of it

There was no real indication of how good or bad Universal's strategy would pan out, beyond the same thing being done for some bestselling books that were not Broadway shows. It was a total gamble on their part

That it made less money than part one is likely a combination of many factors, several of which are inherit to the source, but not necessarily that this was some unwarranted, original, never before heard of sequel.

Yes, but while Broadway fans may have come out for both parts, viewers with a more casual awareness of Wicked might have felt seeing part one was enough.

Just speculating though.

 

[BrianLo]

Wicked: For Good is Act 2 of the same show that's been running since 2003. It is not totally unknown or some other new thing.

I just need to quickly clarify on my end that I’ve seen the show on both broadway and west end in the 2000’s. I am a fan and liked part two more than I expected. I think based on the responses I’m getting explaining the musical structure, my point is being misunderstood.

My criticism is not that they split the musical into two films, but that they think this is the newest biggest franchise that deserves another sequel (or prequel). It doesn’t.

A year ago I think the industry (or Universal) was getting a bit ahead of itself that Wicked was the new “it” franchise, but it turns out with a year and a bit of unexpected clarity, that franchise is K-pop demon hunters. I’d personally welcome a one-off land domestically, but they are going to burn the goose if they don’t understand what this was, strong nostalgia for the musical brought to the silver screen.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I just need to quickly clarify on my end that I’ve seen the show on both broadway and west end in the 2000’s. I am a fan and liked part two more than I expected. I think based on the responses I’m getting explaining the musical structure, my point is being misunderstood.

My criticism is not that they split the musical into two films, but that they think this is the newest biggest franchise that deserves another sequel (or prequel). It doesn’t.

A year ago I think the industry (or Universal) was getting a bit ahead of itself that Wicked was the new “it” franchise, but it turns out with a year and a bit of unexpected clarity, that franchise is K-pop demon hunters. I’d personally welcome a one-off land domestically, but they are going to burn the goose if they don’t understand what this was, strong nostalgia for the musical brought to the silver screen.

You have a dedicated fan base, a proven track record of profitability, the goal of a streaming franchise, and several more books to mine. Not to mention the potential theme park version of Oz.

It makes sense to me.

But I have a 50 year love of WofOz. I was skeptical of Wicked, so sick of hearing POPular at karaoke, and saw it maybe 10(?) years ago without Idina/Kristen.

It surprised me in a good way. I bought the book, and hated it more than I liked the show. It was some feat - turning that source material into that show.

The movie improved upon the show. Obviously the set pieces were more impressive, felt more like Oz, and there was more time overall, and specifically more time for the intersection with WofOz.

I’m here for the next one. It doesn’t have to be a blockbuster to be successful, or to be worth making.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

 

[CoastalElite64]

 

[Nevermore525]

Well now that Fire and Ash has crossed the $1B mark, there have been 60 films to reach that. Disney holds claim to 32 of those films and then some stake in a few others (MCU Spider-Man films for instance)

 

[Baloo124]

I sure hope this $1B milestone for Fire And Ash has got those crazy thoughts outta James Cameron's head about ending the saga with this one.

As the old saying goes: "If it quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. And if that duck is laying golden eggs worth $1B+ each, don't stop the duck from laying future eggs unless you're just growing tired of money, you idiot."

Ok, I don't know if that's precisely how the quote goes, but you get my point.

 

[BlindChow]

I sure hope this $1B milestone for Fire And Ash has got those crazy thoughts outta James Cameron's head about ending the saga with this one.

As the old saying goes: "If it quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. And if that duck is laying golden eggs worth $1B+ each, don't stop the duck from laying future eggs unless you're just growing tired of money, you idiot."

Cameron has plenty of money. If he's burned out or no longer inspired by the subject, good for him for letting it rest.

I can see Disney wanting to keep making them, however.

 

[Disney Irish]

I sure hope this $1B milestone for Fire And Ash has got those crazy thoughts outta James Cameron's head about ending the saga with this one.

As the old saying goes: "If it quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. And if that duck is laying golden eggs worth $1B+ each, don't stop the duck from laying future eggs unless you're just growing tired of money, you idiot."

Ok, I don't know if that's precisely how the quote goes, but you get my point.

Cameron does have a few other franchises he wants to get back to, like Alita 2 for example. So I can see why he might want to step away from this world, even for a bit.

 

[Disney Irish]

Guess he really enjoys and is really excited for watching his DCU movies from the comfort of his couch rather than the full theatrical experience.

 

[Miss Rori]

That it made less money than part one is likely a combination of many factors, several of which are inherit to the source, but not necessarily that this was some unwarranted, original, never before heard of sequel.

Yeah, Wicked Part One and Moana 2 ran virtually unopposed for much of last December, when the only wide releases were Kraven the Hunter and that Lord of the Rings ashcan-copy anime. There were a lot more "big" movies this time around, even Universal brought out Five Nights at Freddy's 2 after all. And all those movies meant less space for holdovers (especially in those all-important premium format showings). Last year, Universal was able to run sing-along screenings of Wicked Part One over Christmas week itself, and it paid off, but this time, the screens weren't there for For Good, in part because their "arty" division Focus Features launched Song Sung Blue over the holiday. (Given how thin the next two months are looking to be, I wouldn't be surprised if Universal gives over a weekend to singalong screenings at some point.) But on the whole, especially given the riskiness of the 2-part format, I think Universal is happy with how things have panned out thus far (one of the bigger foreign markets, Japan, hasn't received it yet - they get it in spring, as they did Part One).

 

[BrianLo]

and several more books to mine.
….
It surprised me in a good way. I bought the book, and hated it more than I liked the show. It was some feat - turning that source material into that show.

Ha - you immediately answered my follow up. I sure hope they aren’t mining the subsequent books, the musical makes a hard left and is somewhat unrecognizable from that series. I too was not really a fan of the book series.

 

[Disney Analyst]

How can you not like the book? Especially when they are in the club and the… well. Never mind.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Heading back home from Disney. United took my daughter’s Stich, told her to trust them and disappeared with it. Returned with this picture.

 

[Agent H]

Heading back home from Disney. United took my daughter’s Stich, told her to trust them and disappeared with it. Returned with this picture.

I’m torn between thinking this is adorable and wondering what on the protected mosquito reserve this has to do with the box office.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

I’m torn between thinking this is adorable and wondering what on the protected mosquito reserve this has to do with the box office.

Stitch has the power to pilot Disney to new heights at the Box Office.

Best I could do.

 

[BrianLo]

It’s purely symbolic, but Zootopia 2 has now passed 1B without China. Though it was a holiday week, it seems poised to edge out Inside Out 2 by end of its run.

Fire and Ash quickly ceded back week three. Now 28% off Way of Water domestically, but 19% international. Deadline is saying ~1.7B total with small upside.

I don’t think this stalls any future avatar movie plans and Zoo 3 has been made a priority.

 

[Agent H]

Stitch has the power to pilot Disney to new heights at the Box Office.

Best I could do.

He'll grant their wish for a whole new world of profits.