I’ve been a pretty big cheerleader for Brightline West, and HSR in general, but this has me really worried… new construction estimates are in and they’re much higher, over $21 billion, I think it’s still getting built but I don’t see how it ever makes a cent in profits.
Brightline FL had approximately 3 million passengers last year, if West can match that, and average $100 a ticket in PROFIT, it’ll take them 70 years just to break even. Their own projections of 9 million a year (seems high) would still take 23 years just to break even, that’s a ROA that’s not going to convince anyone to invest in HSR in America.
Unless they can find a way to get HSR costs down a substantial amount I don’t think we are ever going to see a true HSR system in America, $100 million a mile ($18,000 per FOOT) isn’t going to cut it, especially when that’s the “cheap” version, CSHR is coming in around 2.5x that price, closer to about $50,000 a FOOT. The construction prices are insane, which is resulting in insane ticket prices, which is likely going to just keep most people flying. I think it’s a failed business model in America.
The Brightline West high-speed train project between Las Vegas and Southern California is seeking a $6 billion federal loan as its price tag swells to $21B.
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