News Disney’s Q2 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast

[Chef Mickey]

I’m just going to fundamentally disagree here and state this is actually excellent and highly misunderstood by the street. The street, which for the better part of the early 2020’s completely ignored the financial underpinnings of streaming service and affixed value towards customer counts as opposed to financials. The stock price peaking in 2021 makes… no sense.

They built the third largest streaming service with a now sizable back catalogue and have turned it profitable within five years. The question is - is Disney Plus worth at least 10 billion dollars? That’s a pretty obvious answer, we have valuations on Hulu. The next question is: what peer did it better on that timeframe?

You’ve got your chance to long here.

 

[Chef Mickey]

And DIS for 15 years?... +400%

Pretty much same as Comcast.

The management did a good job until about 2015. The last 10 years did happen, so you can’t just ignore it. Notice how its stock can be up with good management?

In 2005, they made about $2.5B.

By 2015, that was $8.5B

Oh wow, stock went up bc earnings went up.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I find it hilarious when the criticism is "Disney doesn't make as much money as it did pre-pandemic" as though somehow consistently making a profit every year is a bad thing. I mean, the pandemic explicitly had a detrimental effect on all of Disney's core businesses so of course they aren't doing as well as they were 5 years ago. Is there any similar company that is? This isn't a great period to be a legacy media company.

Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery would kill to "be mismanaged" like Disney.

That doesn’t dismiss the fact that they have made some really bad decisions over the last 5-10 years that were and still are self inflicted wounds

 

[doctornick]

That doesn’t dismiss the fact that they have made some really bad decisions over the last 5-10 years that were and still are self inflicted wounds

I don’t disagree at all. I think it’s way overblown on these pages though to the extent that anyone reading would think Disney is on the verge of bankruptcy as opposed to making billions in profit every year. It’s obvious that Disney could do better; it’s also obvious that they could be doing far far worse. Things aren’t always extremes

 

[Chef Mickey]

I don’t disagree at all. I think it’s way overblown on these pages though to the extent that anyone reading would think Disney is on the verge of bankruptcy as opposed to making billions in profit every year. It’s obvious that Disney could do better; it’s also obvious that they could be doing far far worse. Things aren’t always extremes

There is a difference between bankruptcy and investor returns. The company makes money with poor managers but it could and should be so much more. It used to be managed better and was a much better stock.

Investors aren’t stupid. They agree with us. This quarter was a step in the right direction, which we’ll see if they can maintain. Stocks move fast when you do something good or bad. Disney was rewarded for this quarter.

Stocks can do almost anything until the short term, but the 10 year results are in. It’s bad and you can’t blame it on macro factors, speculators, or the stock being disconnected from reality. This is reality.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That doesn’t dismiss the fact that they have made some really bad decisions over the last 5-10 years that were and still are self inflicted wounds

It comes back to they have Deja vu all over again…

Ten years with the same leadership is enough…20 is far too long…even worse more than that.

He just sold the logo to a Saudi puppet state so he could get smiles from his Wall Street handlers

This happened before…almost identical except that one was more grounded as to what the goals were

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s good to see the wood laid around here…

He has GOT to go…stop being apologists because you like a day in the magic kingdom and Pennsylvania sucks…

Big picture

 

[JAN J]

Right…

It’s a bad look for them. Just as the second Chinese park was.

A 75 year old trying to “globalize” on his way out as an homage to himself.

Disagree with me now…agree with me down the road. Have at it.

Let's change the order and let me agree now...

There is a very small group of people that said Disney supported / (agreed / was in cahoots with) / choose an expression with the Chinese government. And that it was bad.
The only time I remember them being vocal / given some (small) media exposure was during the "don't say gay" bill situation.
Beyond that, I don't remember any indignation with Disney over this.

The parks didn't do that well in this last report. But they do have some pretty amazing rides (their version of POTC in particular looks amazing), and Disney is still making money from it.

So from a business standpoint, not a bad look.

As far as Abu Dhabi, UNI tried to strike a deal with the UAE and failed. So just from that perspective, it is a pretty big score for Iger and a testament to his ability as CEO (let's say the homage to himself part is there). (for the record, I am not a fan and I don't like him, but I give credit where it's due)

As someone else mentioned (can't remember who though), the UAE is not Saudi Arabia. My uncle that lived there 11 years met his wife there, and even though we can sure find some concerning reports (though that's true for pretty much everywhere), it is a place where inhabitants largely feel safe, and certainly not a hallmark of disrespect to human lives.

So, do I think it was a bad business move? I don't.

Hopefully you'll agree with me down the road!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As someone else mentioned (can't remember who though), the UAE is not Saudi Arabia. My uncle that lived there 11 years met his wife there, and even though we can sure find some concerning reports (though that's true for pretty much everywhere), it is a place where inhabitants largely feel safe, and certainly not a hallmark of disrespect to human lives.

They’re kinda like the Switzerland of the Middle East…and that’s not necessarily a good thing. We can and will discuss that down the road

Bob was supposed to be GONE…as in out. Retired 5x over. Not pledging permenant development to outside entities in autocracies.

So we all know what’s coming next. Nothing more pathetic than having to drop grandpa off outside the home against his will

 

[el_super]

It’s bad and you can’t blame it on macro factors...

You absolutely can.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You absolutely can.

We know what’s coming next…and it’s wrong as always

 

[Dranth]

There is a difference between bankruptcy and investor returns. The company makes money with poor managers but it could and should be so much more. It used to be managed better and was a much better stock.

Investors aren’t stupid. They agree with us. This quarter was a step in the right direction, which we’ll see if they can maintain. Stocks move fast when you do something good or bad. Disney was rewarded for this quarter.

Stocks can do almost anything until the short term, but the 10 year results are in. It’s bad and you can’t blame it on macro factors, speculators, or the stock being disconnected from reality. This is reality.

Who do you consider their peers and how have those stocks performed over the last 10?

Outside of Netflix (which gets treated like a tech stock) have many of them done much better?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Who do you consider their peers and how have those stocks performed over the last 10?

Outside of Netflix (which gets treated like a tech stock) have many of them done much better?

They’re in the Dow 30…that’s a good place to start

Typically “industry leaders” are expected to be trading at 2015 levels…just saying

 

[Dranth]

They’re in the Dow 30…that’s a good place to start

Typically “industry leaders” are expected to be trading at 2015 levels…just saying

Don't see how that is relevant when trying to use the market as the source of proof of management issues.

Disney isn't even the only company on the Dow 30 trading at 2015 levels but setting that aside, the Dow 30 is meant to be a cross section of the entire market. So, I am not sure what that proves?

My point is that saying DIS is at 2015 levels because management stinks (which is what the poster claimed) might be fine if there are no other issues at play. However, if all their closest competitors are facing the same problem, then is it not possible there is more going on than just management failing?

Don't get me wrong, I don't like a lot of choices Disney has made, but let's not pretend like most of the things we don't like are the same ones the market cheers on.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Don't see how that is relevant when trying to use the market as the source of proof of management issues.

Disney isn't even the only company on the Dow 30 trading at 2015 levels but setting that aside, the Dow 30 is meant to be a cross section of the entire market. So, I am not sure what that proves?

My point is that saying DIS is at 2015 levels because management stinks (which is what the poster claimed) is fine if there are no other issues at play. However, if all their closest competitors are facing the same problem, then is it not possible there is more going on than just management failing?

Don't get me wrong, I don't like a lot of choices Disney has made, but let's not pretend like most of the things we don't like are the same ones the market cheers on.

Let’s take this real slow…

They haven’t made a dime (in real terms) for their investors in a decade. You’re where you started.

Is that the commonality of the market over that period? People are dumping huge sums in for marginal returns?

I don’t know why the concept of bad management isn’t sinking in here. It becomes time for change for everyone. What’s weird here is the resistance to it.

 

[Agent H]

I find it hilarious when the criticism is "Disney doesn't make as much money as it did pre-pandemic" as though somehow consistently making a profit every year is a bad thing. I mean, the pandemic explicitly had a detrimental effect on all of Disney's core businesses so of course they aren't doing as well as they were 5 years ago. Is there any similar company that is? This isn't a great period to be a legacy media company.

Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery would kill to "be mismanaged" like Disney.

The idea that corporations have to make more money year after year is one of the biggest problems with American society.

 

[el_super]

Don't see how that is relevant when trying to use the market as the source of proof of management issues.

The market also has the power to vote Iger out and they have consistently chosen not to.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The idea that corporations have to make more money year after year is one of the biggest problems with American society.

Hmmmmm

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The market also has the power to vote Iger out and they have consistently chosen not to.

Well you’re 0-2 today…watch out for the slider in the dirt

 

[Dranth]

Let’s take this real slow…

They haven’t made a dime (in real terms) for their investors in a decade. You’re wearing your started.

Is that the commonality of the market over that period? People are dumping huge sums in for marginal returns?

I don’t know why the concept of bad management isn’t sinking in here. It becomes time for change for everyone. What’s weird here is the resistance to it.

So, other entertainment companies in the same boat is irrelevant? Just a random happenstance? A coincidence that even their closest rival is sitting around the same levels? Do all of those companies also have terrible management? A bunch of these companies that deal with entertainment underperforming the market as a whole over the same time frame has nothing to do with the massive, seismic shift on how entertainment and advertising is consumed over the last 10 years? None of that, just Iger and his lackies?

Come on man, we all know some of this is very much going to be on Iger and company, but a bunch of it isn't. That doesn't give Disney management a pass, but it seems to me like many of the things you don't like about them are the same things that Wall Street types tend to cheer.