Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Wendy Pleakley]

It’s about how we engage with media. The proliferation of memes and extremely short-form content is altering a generation in ways we don’t understand. We’re seeing statistically significant decreases in the ability to engage with books and films. It’s only been a matter of time before the studios, desperate for hits and adrift in a sea of economic instability, began to try and adapt. Minecraft is likely a tipping point. We’re likely to see a significant effort to move away from storytelling to emphasize content that attempts to leverage familiarity with social media trends and meme recognition. This approach will also be much cheaper for an industry desperate to save money.

While there are certain connective threads to the IP-driven cinema of the last 25 years or so, this will be a new beast, different in kind and not just degree. The nostalgia for superhero content, for instance, hinges largely on themes and fundamental character traits rather than simple images - it’s one of the reasons there’s so much debate over “accuracy.” The MCU has worked because the characters FEEL right, not LOOK right.

That's an interesting observation.

I don't know if it's fixation on memes or just a lack of attention span due to the prevalence of screens in our everyday lives.

Unless the two are interconnected? Meme heavy or not the Minecraft movie still got audiences to show up for a full length movie.

The rowdy behaviour at Minecraft will further turn away audiences as well. People complain about movie prices, but as an adult with discretionary income I can say I had no issue paying for a premium version of Avatar 2 and paid probably $20 for snacks. I can spend the money, but the theater experience has gone downhill.

Maybe the new Naked Gun movie will tell a tale. It's the kind of movie with rapid fire jokes that could appeal to the "meme generation".

 

[Phroobar]

Maybe the new Naked Gun movie will tell a tale. It's the kind of movie with rapid fire jokes that could appeal to the "meme generation".

I can't wait to see how much they slam OJ in the new movie. He always was the Willie E. Coyote of the series.

 

[Casper Gutman]

That's an interesting observation.

I don't know if it's fixation on memes or just a lack of attention span due to the prevalence of screens in our everyday lives.

Unless the two are interconnected? Meme heavy or not the Minecraft movie still got audiences to show up for a full length movie.

The rowdy behaviour at Minecraft will further turn away audiences as well. People complain about movie prices, but as an adult with discretionary income I can say I had no issue paying for a premium version of Avatar 2 and paid probably $20 for snacks. I can spend the money, but the theater experience has gone downhill.

Maybe the new Naked Gun movie will tell a tale. It's the kind of movie with rapid fire jokes that could appeal to the "meme generation".

I love all the ZAZ films. They ricochet brilliantly between stupid and smart. That’s not what I’m talking about in relation to Minecraft, which is a different beast entirely. The jokes and movies like Top-Secret and Airplane are constructed in a largely traditional fashion with a set-up and payoff.

In a meme movie like Minecraft reactions aren’t based on a traditional joke structure but on recognition of images and symbols. This is absolutely linked to the exponential proliferation of social media and extreme short-form media content like TikTok, media which does not depend on storytelling or emotional connection to please an audience. It’s a reaction based on mere recognition rather than evocation of emotions.

 

[erasure fan1]

This has next to nothing to do with Minecraft being “stupid.” Do you ever read what other posters write?

So you've complained about people praising Minecraft because it's no good. But also complained about people not praising moana 2 because it made money and was also bad. Then comment that this will have ramifications about the 2nd weekend box office numbers. I was responding to that while you were explaining it better to another poster. Maybe, just maybe, you put a full response in your post about the article. So no, I didn't read that because I was writing my response to your other response.

So then about Minecraft being some tipping point. Sure it could be. But it could also be a blip on the radar that most don't remember after it's first month streaming. I don't know, you don't know, none of us do. Again you barked at people here about, Minecraft bad! Yet seemingly ignoring when I say people didn't praise moana 2 because they expected more from Disney. Look, I'm not going crap on Minecraft because it's a dumb meme movie. Because it wasn't really billed as anything else. But I will crap on Disney for not giving the effort that I believe moana deserved. Not sure why that's such a hot take.

Entertainment has always chased trends. There's nothing new here. Video games, movies, sports... They all chase trends. Why wasn't the emoji move a tipping point? It's not because it didn't make money like Minecraft. The difference is Minecraft is HUGE. I'm having trouble even thinking of another property that could be as successful as Minecraft has been having the same quality. Studios will try, most will likely fail to make any real impact and they'll look to something else. Or it's the end of Cinema as we know it and all the studios are doomed. I'm guessing it'll be the first, but I'm more optimistic than you.

 

[Casper Gutman]

So you've complained about people praising Minecraft because it's no good. But also complained about people not praising moana 2 because it made money and was also bad. Then comment that this will have ramifications about the 2nd weekend box office numbers. I was responding to that while you were explaining it better to another poster. Maybe, just maybe, you put a full response in your post about the article. So no, I didn't read that because I was writing my response to your other response.

So then about Minecraft being some tipping point. Sure it could be. But it could also be a blip on the radar that most don't remember after it's first month streaming. I don't know, you don't know, none of us do. Again you barked at people here about, Minecraft bad! Yet seemingly ignoring when I say people didn't praise moana 2 because they expected more from Disney. Look, I'm not going crap on Minecraft because it's a dumb meme movie. Because it wasn't really billed as anything else. But I will crap on Disney for not giving the effort that I believe moana deserved. Not sure why that's such a hot take.

Entertainment has always chased trends. There's nothing new here. Video games, movies, sports... They all chase trends. Why wasn't the emoji move a tipping point? It's not because it didn't make money like Minecraft. The difference is Minecraft is HUGE. I'm having trouble even thinking of another property that could be as successful as Minecraft has been having the same quality. Studios will try, most will likely fail to make any real impact and they'll look to something else. Or it's the end of Cinema as we know it and all the studios are doomed. I'm guessing it'll be the first, but I'm more optimistic than you.

I have never, ever praised Moana 2 or called for others to do so. I have been highly critical of it and have posted repeatedly that I hoped it failed. I would appreciate if you would stop blatantly misrepresenting my positions.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I can't wait to see how much they slam OJ in the new movie. He always was the Willie E. Coyote of the series.

He's referenced in a joke which is in the teaser trailer, which I suspect will be the extent of it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sometimes movies aren't all about the money and they do make money outside of the theatrical release. I know this is a box office thread but those two subjects are at least tangential and it makes sense to discuss them here.

My question is why you think people who post the comments you referenced are doing it to "soothe themselves?" You're too much into the "feels" sometimes. You care deeply about Disney and tend to attribute that level of caring to others. I can acknowledge what a movie makes outside of its theatrical release without feeling "soothed" or any other kind of way.

Only a few generations "grew up" alongside Disney. It's losing those generations now and younger fans don't "feel" much of anything toward the Disney company. It's possible that would have happened no matter who was in charge.

Now this is reasonable…

Of course movies do make money - mostly off merch if youre Disney - in the longterm

For instance…I can’t even begin to imagine how much money the little mermaid has made over the years? Huge for the cost of 1980s animation.

Then they got stupid and made THAT one…a blip and straight to the clearance bin. Not smart.

Other more recent examples are Moana and STITCH. Stitch might be the best ROI they’ve ever had. Crazy sales from the source.

Disney is good at that…
Or they were.

But they had a good thing going with Marvel…now we have some terrible direction/creative choices…and we’ll see what kinda damage happens?

And I won’t get into that little sci fi “thing”…the most successful swag pusher ever…like ever

So they take that down in a class from a clown school…and are HEAVILY mining 1980 now - more than ever - to try and recover. Online…stores…parks…beyond obvious

As far as the generations who grew up alongside Disney…
I’d say that the WW2 gen embraced it to kinda provide some distraction from what they went through…it was symbiosis with Walt.

Boomers followed through a traumatic era in history as well…

X had it easy…but they are the last and “keystone” generation now…unfortunately for the rest of the planet…and Disney.

One thing we all seem to agree on is that the strong Disney BOD/attachment is slipping…but as we know: it takes time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have never, ever praised Moana 2 or called for others to do so. I have been highly critical of it and have posted repeatedly that I hoped it failed. I would appreciate if you would stop blatantly misrepresenting my positions.

That’s where you missed the plate…

That is what Disney fans should want…easy money.

Because they aren’t an arthouse and will never operate as one. Why are we here? They only way we get anything other than overcharged is if the emperor has enough to throw games in his own honor…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Moana 2 represents the textbook for giving people exactly what they want. And that’s starts with Bob…a sequel with no Brain power required that deliver high yield, disposal fun.

Now for an arthouse studio…maybe that isn’t wanted.

But Disney doesn’t make “cinema”…it makes flicks

 

[LittleBuford]

It sure seems like you're complaining that people didn't praise it. I'm not sure how I misrepresented your post.

I read it the other around: he doesn’t think praise is merited in either case, not that Moana 2 should be applauded in the same way that A Minecraft Movie has been.

 

[Disney Irish]

Now for an arthouse studio…maybe that isn’t wanted.

But Disney doesn’t make “cinema”…it makes flicks

Why can't it make both? Disney shouldn't be just one thing in 2025, it should be able to make content for all different types of audiences, both mass market and arthouse alike. This is the exact reason why they've kept Searchlight for example.

 

[Tha Realest]

He's referenced in a joke which is in the teaser trailer, which I suspect will be the extent of it.

I belly laughed at that part. And while Neeson is quite hilarious - watch his clip on Life is Short - I worry that this will not hit the target like so many ZAZ copycats (and late stage ZAZ productions).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why can't it make both? Disney shouldn't be just one thing in 2025, it should be able to make content for all different types of audiences, both mass market and arthouse alike. This is the exact reason why they've kept Searchlight for example.

It should be both…but if the flicks don’t make bank…which they do not when they flop…then the experimental stuff is the first things to get cut…

Once you get big…the two go hand in hand

 

[Casper Gutman]

I read it the other around: he doesn’t think praise is merited in either case, not that Moana 2 should be applauded in the same way that A Minecraft Movie has been.

This is very obviously what I intended, both from the clear wording of the post and my previous comments on the topic. Erasure tends to decide upon the conclusion he wants and reasons backwards from there.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

From what I can see, you’re not understanding the point he’s making.

Nothing he’s said supports your comments here so maybe don’t accuse him of not reading or understanding.

It’s all a game…and none of us are in the rookie league anymore.

 

[BrianLo]

There always have, and will always be stupid movies for the sake of stupid movies. In this situation Moana is the clear answer in my opinion. One of your most popular franchise's is given a streaming show. Then they decided well that's not going to make us enough money. So it's duck taped together into a film and released, and it does over a billion. Showing Disney they don't have to really put a ton of effort and give things the care they deserve and they can still make money. That perception is more damaging in my eyes. Now if they would have released the show, and then made a proper theatrical sequel, then yea Minecraft is the choice. But that's not what happened.

Just to stick my neck out, I don’t think this (Moana 2) is the industry shift you are accusing it of being.

The takeaway from the company is that premium content should go into theatres and they shouldn’t be dumping and diminishing all their brands on streaming.

It’s not an indictment of flowing content from streaming to theatres, it’s about fully re-establishing the old model. Moana 2 was a one off, there isn’t this treasure trove of things to move theatrically. It’s about starting theatrically. In my eyes, it’s a good strategy reframing and they were rewarded for it.

 

[Casper Gutman]

So you've complained about people praising Minecraft because it's no good. But also complained about people not praising moana 2 because it made money and was also bad. Then comment that this will have ramifications about the 2nd weekend box office numbers. I was responding to that while you were explaining it better to another poster. Maybe, just maybe, you put a full response in your post about the article. So no, I didn't read that because I was writing my response to your other response.

So then about Minecraft being some tipping point. Sure it could be. But it could also be a blip on the radar that most don't remember after it's first month streaming. I don't know, you don't know, none of us do. Again you barked at people here about, Minecraft bad! Yet seemingly ignoring when I say people didn't praise moana 2 because they expected more from Disney. Look, I'm not going crap on Minecraft because it's a dumb meme movie. Because it wasn't really billed as anything else. But I will crap on Disney for not giving the effort that I believe moana deserved. Not sure why that's such a hot take.

Entertainment has always chased trends. There's nothing new here. Video games, movies, sports... They all chase trends. Why wasn't the emoji move a tipping point? It's not because it didn't make money like Minecraft. The difference is Minecraft is HUGE. I'm having trouble even thinking of another property that could be as successful as Minecraft has been having the same quality. Studios will try, most will likely fail to make any real impact and they'll look to something else. Or it's the end of Cinema as we know it and all the studios are doomed. I'm guessing it'll be the first, but I'm more optimistic than you.

You have failed, as far as I can see, to support your earlier contention that Minecraft will have a more detrimental impact on the industry then Moana 2. You even concede that studios will emulate Minecraft. The particular circumstances leading to Moana 2 are extremely unlikely to be frequently reproduced and Disney reducing effort in its animated releases, something we don’t see much evidence of in their future slate, would be due to a myriad of forces, most with very little connection to Moana 2.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Just to stick my neck out, I don’t think this (Moana 2) is the industry shift you are accusing it of being.

The takeaway from the company is that premium content should go into theatres and they shouldn’t be dumping and diminishing all their brands on streaming.

It’s not an indictment of flowing content from streaming to theatres, it’s about fully re-establishing the old model. Moana 2 was a one off, there isn’t this treasure trove of things to move theatrically. It’s about starting theatrically. In my eyes, it’s a good strategy reframing and they were rewarded for it.

Beautifully stated. Moana 2 was very poorly handled, but it was a sign of studios refocusing on theatrical rather then streaming content, which is good.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just to stick my neck out, I don’t think this (Moana 2) is the industry shift you are accusing it of being.

The takeaway from the company is that premium content should go into theatres and they shouldn’t be dumping and diminishing all their brands on streaming.

It’s not an indictment of flowing content from streaming to theatres, it’s about fully re-establishing the old model. Moana 2 was a one off, there isn’t this treasure trove of things to move theatrically. It’s about starting theatrically. In my eyes, it’s a good strategy reframing and they were rewarded for it.

Adjusted for inflation…that model has not been successful and doesn’t appear to ever be so…

And that’s what sweater grapples with…there was WAY more clean money to be made from a variety of segments in 1995…but they can’t go back and there is no recreation of that dynamic

 

[BrianLo]

Mufasa came in somewhere about $50-$75 million over what it looked to be headed toward a few weeks in. A bomb was briefly in play…but it stuck around and did ok.

Define flatline for us. It's at 482, what range are you thinking?

Somewhere around a total of $550ish? Maybe break even once the chips fall?

Sure, 50-75 give or take another 100 million.

There’s a reason I made you commit, you have a notoriously good imagination.