Universal Epic Universe (South Expansion Complex) - Now Open!

[Tom Morrow]

They weren't supposed to be filming on the rides, so you can assume any leaked video of a ride is uploaded by a... less than stellar individual.

 

[Lil Copter Cap]

A lot riding on park ops and engineering.

Yeaaaah. And six of the nine rides being exposed to the elements also worries me for those rainy summer afternoons.

 

[Stripes]

If the economy goes into a recession, this would be a terrible time to debut the most expensive park ever built.

 

[Andrew25]

If the economy goes into a recession, this would be a terrible time to debut the most expensive park ever built.

Unfortunately it is, but there's nothing they can do about it. I've been saying since October that their ticketing strategy is not only confusing, but strict when it comes to flexibility for guests. It seems like they're sticking to their plan, but it's an awful one IMO.

I did an Epic preview a couple of weeks ago. Happy to answer questions now that the media blackout is done.

Things I liked:

• The drive in and out was super easy. Coming from Celebration and the Disney area, I did not have to get on I-4 to get there. (I took 417 to John Young.)
• Theming is very good, even in the restaurants and bathrooms.
• The detail in the Ministry land is another order of magnitude better than anything else we've seen. So's the Ministry queue.
• Monsters and Ministry were not operating. The remaining rides were good to great, except for Werewolf (which isn't special).
• If Monsters and Ministry are as good as the queues, it might be the only park in Orlando with two or (arguably) three super-headliner rides. Imagine DHS if it had three rides like ROTR.
• Celestial Park seems to have plenty of seating and room. They were installing shade when I was there. Hopefully there's lots of that.

Things I didn't like:

• They definitely need more attractions. I'd get started on the 3 expansion pads now.
• Ride capacity is low
• That puts pressure on ride reliability, which is not a great position to be in for a new park.
• Other than that, I was trying to come up with something and the best I could do was "the knife work on the onions in my steak au poivre maybe could've been a little better? Maybe slightly thinner onions here?"

Overall very positive. A lot riding on park ops and engineering.

I have the same thoughts. I was there this past week and I don't think there's enough shade (they added a lot of umbrellas, but it's very hot, especially in SNW). I know that is a result of construction still occuring, but felt bad for the TMs working the SNW games as they were out in the sun all day.

Regarding capacity, I agree that the park will desperately need it sooner than later. Initial capacity estimates:

• Stardust - 2,400 (at a 60-sec interval, they are aiming for 50-sec intervals)
• Constellation Carousel - 720
• Wing Gliders - 1,440
• Dragon Racer's Rally - 360
• Fyre Drill - 720 (could be lower or higher pending # of boats)
• Viking Training Camp - n/a
• Battle at the Ministry - 1,700
• Curse of the Werewolf - 1,100
• Monsters Unchained - 2,057 (7-sec intervals)
• Yoshi's Adventure - 1,200
• Mario Kart - 1,700
• Donkey Kart: Mine Cart Madness - 1,200

Total Epic Ride Capacity: ~14,600
Current DAK Ride Capacity: ~12,300 (includes ITTAB & Dinosaur, but not Triceratop Spin- with Tropical Americas it'll increase to ~14,400) *Excluding walkthrough exhibits*
IOA Capacity: ~20,400
USF Capacity: ~16,000

This is based off my Wait-Time model I continue to update based on Epic preview information and latest capacity updates.
*Battle at the Ministry will be very difficult to gauge initially

 

[celluloid]

It is wild that the first two weeks are completely sold out. It is such a different time to open a theme park when the last major one was Universal with IOA in 1999, and the internet and common online ticket ordering has changed how expedited that is.

Not to mention Express Pass and Tours sold on top of that.

This is all without any Team Member ID access.

 

[Misted Compass]

It is wild that the first two weeks are completely sold out. It is such a different time to open a theme park when the last major one was Universal with IOA in 1999, and the internet and common online ticket ordering has changed how expedited that is.

Not to mention Express Pass and Tours sold on top of that.

This is all without any Team Member ID access.

If you're talking about single day tickets I don't think they were ever available in May for non-APs.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

It is wild that the first two weeks are completely sold out.

Technically it’s still only opening day that’s sold out — the 3-days still get you into Epic on any subsequent day.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It is wild that the first two weeks are completely sold out. It is such a different time to open a theme park when the last major one was Universal with IOA in 1999, and the internet and common online ticket ordering has changed how expedited that is.

Not to mention Express Pass and Tours sold on top of that.

This is all without any Team Member ID access.

Why are you surprised its sold out?

 

[celluloid]

Why are you surprised its sold out?

Not surprised. I used the term wild as in wild as it is impressive to see it.

No major theme park has ever opened post Disneyland that consistently sold out for that many days consecutively where Employees are also blocked out.

It is a new era. When IOA opened in 1999 the internet was different(Port of Entry had an Email Internet Cafe!)

Wild not but surprising, so it is cool to see. There is no AP add on feature for gratis days. Nearly every guest you see(because for sure there are VIPs somewhere) payed at least a value of 117 bucks to be there, or far more that day. No other opening of a theme park in Central FL since has been able to do this. Sell out without AP add on and many paying 3 day to a week packages.

And as confusing and frustrating as it may have been to wait for day tickets to go on sale, I think it worked for Universal's goal of banking more people onsite with packages.

I also imagine more days are going to sell out. Over two weeks are sold out after opening day, at 17 days and we are still over a month away.

The future may fizzle a bit or economic whoas could happen if people want to speculate that, but there is no doubt that this park is a slam dunk for the resort right now.

 

[celluloid]

For those that did not see it, the hotel rates have gone up a pretty penny. As with the case with travel as it nears, the demand is not low as my room I nabbed for the Helios at the end of last year for two nights Park View are now more than nearly 300 more a night than the spendy they already were. All other room style rates have gone up as well.

 

[Lil Copter Cap]

The future may fizzle a bit or economic whoas could happen if people want to speculate that, but there is no doubt that this park is a slam dunk for the resort right now.

I do think there is doubt to be had (but if only from a financial and demand perspective). We don’t yet know how this will affect attendance at Universal’s existing parks. Even if single-day tickets are sold out for opening and multi-day tickets are selling well, there’s a chance guests are simply shifting their days around, not necessarily increasing overall foot traffic or spend.

We also don't know current attendance capacity limits and if Universal is waiting to release a block day-of or closer to May 22 for those not pre-purchasing tickets. May 22nd is the only day that is currently showing on the calendar as completely blocked for attendance on a single-day and multi-day ticket. (Single day tickets are sold out for ~the first two weeks, but the park itself is not via multi-day tickets).

With this being the first theme park to open domestically at this scale since the creation of modern internet, I think there are too many variables that cast doubt and isn't just a blanket "slam dunk" for Universal.

I'm only coming at this from a financial and demand perspective since it seems to be your main thesis. Is this new park a slam dunk for Universal's portfolio? I'm sure in the long run. For central Floridians? Absolutely.

But for a company that spent upwards of $7-$10 billion on this theme park...the first couple weeks being sold out to only single-day ticket buyers does not a financial or demand slam dunk make, especially when two of the three new hotels are still available for booking during that same initial time frame.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

That puts pressure on ride reliability, which is not a great position to be in for a new park.

Overall I am very excited but this is my biggest worry and if on our day we are there MoM or MU (Or God forbid both) are down, not only miss out on doing them but will make the lines for everything else so much worse.

Did already invest in express pass, but just hoping for a "good ride day"

(But if that is my biggest concern. Guess that is a pretty good thing)

 

[TheMaxRebo]

For those that did not see it, the hotel rates have gone up a pretty penny. As with the case with travel as it nears, the demand is not low as my room I nabbed for the Helios at the end of last year for two nights Park View are now more than nearly 300 more a night than the spendy they already were. All other room style rates have gone up as well.

As video is coming out I can definitely see people being willing to pay more for the theme park view rooms specifically

 

[celluloid]

As video is coming out I can definitely see people being willing to pay more for the theme park view rooms specifically

I am sure. Demand must be good all across as the prices have gone up substantially for all rooms.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I do think there is doubt to be had (but if only from a financial and demand perspective). We don’t yet know how this will affect attendance at Universal’s existing parks. Even if single-day tickets are sold out for opening and multi-day tickets are selling well, there’s a chance guests are simply shifting their days around, not necessarily increasing overall foot traffic or spend.

We also don't know current attendance capacity limits and if Universal is waiting to release a block day-of or closer to May 22 for those not pre-purchasing tickets. May 22nd is the only day that is currently showing on the calendar as completely blocked for attendance on a single-day and multi-day ticket. (Single day tickets are sold out for ~the first two weeks, but the park itself is not via multi-day tickets).

With this being the first theme park to open domestically at this scale since the creation of modern internet, I think there are too many variables that cast doubt and isn't just a blanket "slam dunk" for Universal.

I'm only coming at this from a financial and demand perspective since it seems to be your main thesis. Is this new park a slam dunk for Universal's portfolio? I'm sure in the long run. For central Floridians? Absolutely.

But for a company that spent upwards of $7-$10 billion on this theme park...the first couple weeks being sold out to only single-day ticket buyers does not a financial or demand slam dunk make, especially when two of the three new hotels are still available for booking during that same initial time frame.

I think in a vacuum it will be a slam dunk and theme park fans will love it ... But like you said, how will this impact their other parks? And just not sure it will turn it into the week long destination that their leadership said they were wanting - and think a big reason is still not enough for you get kids/"everybody rides" ... Only a couple of the rides are really for the under 10 crowd and just think hard to ask a family to do their entire vacation here when that is the case - bust definitely will see even more people so split stays or add on at least a day to check out the new park, etc

 

[Andrew C]

I think in a vacuum it will be a slam dunk and theme park fans will love it ... But like you said, how will this impact their other parks? And just not sure it will turn it into the week long destination that their leadership said they were wanting - and think a big reason is still not enough for you get kids/"everybody rides" ... Only a couple of the rides are really for the under 10 crowd and just think hard to ask a family to do their entire vacation here when that is the case - bust definitely will see even more people so split stays or add on at least a day to check out the new park, etc

We just did a sole Universal vacation in December with kids ages 6 and 11. And we are highly likely to do another next year for spring break. We are one family they converted. How many more are out there?

 

[DarkMetroid567]

I think in a vacuum it will be a slam dunk and theme park fans will love it ... But like you said, how will this impact their other parks? And just not sure it will turn it into the week long destination that their leadership said they were wanting - and think a big reason is still not enough for you get kids/"everybody rides" ... Only a couple of the rides are really for the under 10 crowd and just think hard to ask a family to do their entire vacation here when that is the case - bust definitely will see even more people so split stays or add on at least a day to check out the new park, etc

Yup. Epic looks like a triumph but it needs to be a financial gamechanger and pull in a crowd that Universal previously hasn’t. I don’t think it’ll rise to that level that the original Wizarding World did, though. Nintendo is Uni’s best bet in that department, but Epic SNW needs to prove much more longevity than the USH version.

I am sure. Demand must be good all across as the prices have gone up substantially for all rooms.

Imo in prior experience there is very little rhyme or reason to Universal’s pricing spikes. And for the week of my visit the pricing of Stella, Aventura, Cabana, and Endless Summer have been largely static for the last two-ish months. Got a good deal in October.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

We just did a sole Universal vacation in December with kids ages 6 and 11. And we are highly likely to do another next year for spring break. We are one family they converted. How many more are out there?

Guess we will find out - we went back in 2021 and thought it was fine but really just highlighted how much more we like Disney. We are doing a day at Epic in August (though without the kids)

 

[DarkMetroid567]

We just did a sole Universal vacation in December with kids ages 6 and 11. And we are highly likely to do another next year for spring break. We are one family they converted. How many more are out there?

A ton. But that’s nothing new. I’ve been hearing stuff like that since 2010 (usually bc of lower crowds and price). But the bread and butter isn’t in winning converts — it’s winning people who were never interested in Disney or Universal in the first place. That’s what made WWoHP so brilliant.

Interestingly I’ve encountered a few people planning Disney/Epic vacations. One of them I’ve tried to convince to come to IoA to no avail. That’s almost certainly what Universal doesn’t want.

 

[celluloid]

We just did a sole Universal vacation in December with kids ages 6 and 11. And we are highly likely to do another next year for spring break. We are one family they converted. How many more are out there?

A lot. And you can bet those other parks will be busier not just because of the package deals, but Universal's Team Member base has just grown by thousands across and behind the scenes of a new theme park and hotels.

It is safe to presume on a busier than ever HHN too(even more so than usual), with that much more exposure and pool of guests. We are only four and a half months from that amping up.