Only 65% of vaccinated people in Austria...Almost same in Germany with some Lander with low vaccination rates.Horrific rise in cases across Europe again. Ominious.
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
- Start date
-
- Tags
- coronavirus covid covid-19
- Status
Austria is paying the price with their anti vax skeptical residents .
Last edited:
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Oh right…no argument outside of Florida…
but as far as Disney and masks go…they’ll dump them if there’s upside…guess they don’t see any yet?
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
People in the US will say that won’t happen here until 3 weeks after it does.
A mandate? And you didn’t quit?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Not a good situation if you speak DeutschHorrific rise in cases across Europe again. Ominious.
You know where else where people haven’t bothered to get it enough?
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Same thing is happening right now in the upper Midwest but the media is not reporting it. Hospitals are full up with covid and other respiratory ailments
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
How can a vaccine have a negative effectiveness?
Are they implying it will make people more susceptible in the long term? That makes no sense at all.
I was scratching my head on that also.
Besides the ridiculousness of producing a graph that shows the vaccine eventually creating negative protection, their own conclusions of this study (that hasn't been peer-reviewed) is:
"Background: Whether vaccine effectiveness against Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) lasts longer than 6 months is unclear."
"Collectively, there is insufficient evidence to determine vaccine effectiveness beyond 6 months."
"The effectiveness against severe illness seems to remain high through 9 months, although not for men, older frail individuals, and individuals with comorbidities."
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
There is some coverage now…but they have been subdued.
my guess is all the media “analysts” have determined that covid no longer moves the needle? But riot coverage and ships off LA with Christmas gifts stuck on them does…
..:they are all the same in that regard.
Joesixtoe
Well-Known Member
Deaths per 100,000 on this graph go from 0.01 to 0.08. You should see the first half of the year, it's much higher. January you have a death count in the 80s and 90s, last few months mostly in single digits. However the vaccine rate is about 68-72%(different sites seem to say different percentage). So this graph should help the vaccine cures all pundits.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I was just looking up that data… the above graph is very misleading because it ignores the previous spikes. They had a slight uptick but nothing that compares to the spikes seen elsewhere.
Sweden really has (so far) avoided the Delta spike, the graph I found was 69% fully vaccinated, they are either doing something right or have just been fortunate that Delta hasn’t gained a foothold there.
Kind of irrelevant to the herd immunity debate anyway, Florida is the poster child for herd immunity, they haven’t changed anything and went from worst to now best in the nation… the only reasonable explanation for that is herd immunity. How long it’ll last is the million dollar question.
Attachments
Last edited:
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Because I don't think that is what going negative means in this context. And reveals the problem with lay people like us trying to "do our own research" and dig into studies beyond the abstract. This is the explanation of the two Figures in question
"Figure 2. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness (any vaccine) against symptomatic Covid-19 infection among 842,974 vaccinated individuals matched to equally number of unvaccinated individuals through 9 months of follow-up. To model the association between vaccine effectiveness during follow-up, restricted cubic splines were used with 5 degrees of freedom.
Supplemental Figure 1. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness (any vaccine) against Covid-19 hospitalization or death among 842,974 vaccinated individuals matched to equally number of unvaccinated individuals through 9 months of follow-up. To model the association between vaccine effectiveness during follow-up, restricted cubic splines were used with 5 degrees of freedom."
Do you feel confident that you understand what that means?
I think I have a sort of idea of what is actually going on due to the explanation of matched pairing in the document, and looking at the rate at which the number of valid pairings declined during the course of the study. Because once 1 person in a pair suffers a COVID infection, then they are eliminated from future comparison. For all vaccines, it started with (N=1,684,958), dropping with each 60 day period, a huge drop to (N=635,402) at the 121 day mark, continuing to drop until the post 210 day period where (N=239,822). Looking at just the unvaccinated group, per period and the number of events.
1st - 4,719 (15-30 days)
2nd - 8,908 (31-60 days)
3rd - 7522 (61-120)
4th - 399 (121-180)
5th - 161 (181 - 210)
6th - 62 (210+)
Total: 21,771 events
Do you see what I see? The huge drop off of infections by unvaccinated people during the 121-180 day period, coinciding with the huge drop in overall matched pairs. Did the unvaccinated suddenly develop special skills to protect them? I don't think so. This is I think, where behavior comes in. Unvaccinated people got infected early or their normal behavior didn't lead to infection, the remaining uninfected kept those routines up, and if they survived 121 days without infection, getting to 210 days COVID-free doesn't sound all that impossible, does it? Like the zombie apocalypse, you have to be smart (or lucky) about what you do, to survive the initial wave. The unvaccinated that made it past 210 days are really good at avoiding COVID.
Meanwhile in the vaccinated group, their total overall was only 6147 events. But at that 121-180 window vaccinated people had 820 events. More than the 399 in the unvaccinated group. So doing the standard calculation, just like your checkbook when expenses > income, it went negative. The remaining periods vax also outnumbered the unvax group 718 to 161 and 522 to 62, and so it looks even more negative as shown in the chart. Their individual behavior probably didn't change between the first 121 days and the last 100 either, so the change is likely due to the vaccine effectiveness. What I think the negative shows is that, in general, vaccinated people are interacting with more people, and therefore more exposure risk, than the unvaccinated who have managed to get this far without a COVID event. Vaxxed people were less concerned with COVID infection and thus got infected by COVID. But I'd still rather be part of the 6147 event cohort than the 21,771 event one.
Consensus opinion has been growing around the initial dosage, especially for Pfizer, being inadequate against Delta. This is just evidence of that. I don't think this is a poor study, it's just we don't really understand what we are looking at. I also don't want study authors to have to change their methods because people are looking at the pictures and studies and not understanding what they mean, when their colleagues and intended audience understands just fine. We are lucky to be able to access this stuff as is. If we keep abusing and misinterpreting results they'll probably stick things behind paywalls and login screens. I want people to recognize what they don't know, and wait for more qualified people to make statements about what it means instead of jumping to none of it works!
Last edited:
Bartattack
Well-Known Member
So, we are currently experiencing a 4th wave (Belgium - and most of our neighbour countries)...
What have we learned:
- Cases are almost at the same height as our second wave or even higher. (7 day average of 12.000 cases - 11 million population)
- unlike before now al lot of cases are with younger people (Elementary School). High school cases are much much lower than before (due to vaccination)
- between 21 ocotober - 11 november 367 people were taken to ICU. 54% of them were vaccinated - 46% were not vaccinated.
Of course this is expected because 75% of the total population in our country is vaccinated.... 25% are not.
Most of the vaccinated people in ICU are older people with comorbidities. Most of the non-vaccinated people in ICU are younger people.
- Deaths are a lot less than in previous waves.
- Older people (65+) are currently getting their booster shots. A booster shot for everybody will follow shortly.
- People who got an AstraZeneca or Johnson&Johnson vaccin will be getting priority for the Pfizer/Moderna booster shot.
- talk of vaccinating children (-12 y) is ongoing... maybe from january... but unsure at this time.
- masks are back (indoor) and for people 10 years and older. (events, theatres, movies ...)
- if you are moving in a restaurant (restroom) you have to put on a mask.
- Working from home will be mandated again (3 - 4 days)
- They are currently evaluating options for clubs etc... (quick tests)
- Vaccination for people who work in care will be mandated. Also people who work in administration or supporting jobs etc... in care facilities and hospitals will have to get vaccinated.
The peak of the wave is projected for the end of november.
So stay alert and be safe...
I have moved my WDW trip 3 times now. Originally from August 15 2020.... then August 11 2021... then 29th October 2021... and now March 31st 2022. Fingers crossed.
What have we learned:
- Cases are almost at the same height as our second wave or even higher. (7 day average of 12.000 cases - 11 million population)
- unlike before now al lot of cases are with younger people (Elementary School). High school cases are much much lower than before (due to vaccination)
- between 21 ocotober - 11 november 367 people were taken to ICU. 54% of them were vaccinated - 46% were not vaccinated.
Of course this is expected because 75% of the total population in our country is vaccinated.... 25% are not.
Most of the vaccinated people in ICU are older people with comorbidities. Most of the non-vaccinated people in ICU are younger people.
- Deaths are a lot less than in previous waves.
- Older people (65+) are currently getting their booster shots. A booster shot for everybody will follow shortly.
- People who got an AstraZeneca or Johnson&Johnson vaccin will be getting priority for the Pfizer/Moderna booster shot.
- talk of vaccinating children (-12 y) is ongoing... maybe from january... but unsure at this time.
- masks are back (indoor) and for people 10 years and older. (events, theatres, movies ...)
- if you are moving in a restaurant (restroom) you have to put on a mask.
- Working from home will be mandated again (3 - 4 days)
- They are currently evaluating options for clubs etc... (quick tests)
- Vaccination for people who work in care will be mandated. Also people who work in administration or supporting jobs etc... in care facilities and hospitals will have to get vaccinated.
The peak of the wave is projected for the end of november.
So stay alert and be safe...
I have moved my WDW trip 3 times now. Originally from August 15 2020.... then August 11 2021... then 29th October 2021... and now March 31st 2022. Fingers crossed.
Give it a moment. Disney doesn't lead the way much any more.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I don’t know if they want to “lead” on this?…is my point. They kind of “trusted” Florida in mid 2020 and were made the fool because of it.
nobody wants to have to “go back” again…so they may be giving just a touch of pause…
there is a spike fanning out from the north down…and Europe doesn’t look too good.
fools rush in.
Last edited:
Timmay
Well-Known Member
I haven’t shared this because it’s really not anybody’s business, but I got my first two jabs with no issues. My doc then approved a booster because of my work…and then it went bad. Chest tightness, short of breath, severe heart palpitations. One of the scariest and most uncomfortable experiences of my life. I’d take the mild illness and only 2 weeks of not being able to exercise any day…because I’m still having problems. Ongoing boosters don’t excite me.
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Spike forming???
Wife's hospital is worse off now than the original wave. Most admissions ever.
I wonder why media is not covering this?
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
- Status