Zika Impact

[SorcererMC]

it's too soon to know for Brazil and Puerto Rico

Correcting my misstatement: The PAHO website includes suspected cases for Brazil in their epidemiological updates (http://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11599&Itemid=41691&lang=en ). I was thinking of the alerts which don't have as much specific information.

 

[seabreezept813]

Congrats on the Green Card!!!
I think mosquito repellent companies will see the biggest influx of profit that they've ever seen. Hopefully everyone uses it. The only positive about this horrible is virus is that it can be prevented. The more people who protect themselves from getting a bite, the less of a chance it has to spread.

Thank you. Fort Lauderdale is still tropical, but something about being on the water, the breeze really kept the bugs away. And I do have faith that the U.S. handles this more seriously than some of the third world countries. I can see putting off travel plans if one is already pregnant but as for the thinking about children group it's hard. For many people, getting pregnant can take a long time and it's hard to completely put your life on hold. My doctors approved Florida, so we went. However, they advised against any islands. It's a tough situation.

 

[Matt_Black]

And I do have faith that the U.S. handles this more seriously than some of the third world countries.

To be fair, third world countries often have a lot more to worry about and less resources to deal with them. For instance, here in the States, we don't really worry about malaria, but in other parts of the world it is a HUGE deal.

 

[SorcererMC]

I would be scared to death if I was pregnant and contracted Zika.. The last I read though is that 29% of pregnancies have had some kind of negative outcome. 71% are fine. Other sources say that only 1% to 15% will actually have defects. That's a HUGE discrepancy. So before the gov't issues a panic and every pregnant woman runs to the nearest PP, I think we need to know more about it, and follow more cases.

I also want to add that I don't think they can positively say that the miscarriages were 100% due to the Zika virus. We don't know the ages of all of the women (not that I have read anyway), or any other factors that may be involved. I won't deny that the stories are incredibly frightening though. If I was pregnant/trying I'd pick a place far away from any Zika reports. I just don't think Orlando is one of them, especially WDW.

It's a lot easier to detect Zika virus in pregnant women b/c the virus can be found in their blood for ten weeks (vs ~7 days for non-pregnant individuals). So long as most pregnant women are being monitored/tested according to CDC guidelines, I would think that the cases of congenital issues should remain low (but not nonexistent). And secondly that pregnant women would be able to make informed decisions based on those results.

 

[seabreezept813]

To be fair, third world countries often have a lot more to worry about and less resources to deal with them. For instance, here in the States, we don't really worry about malaria, but in other parts of the world it is a HUGE deal.

I didn't mean that in a patronizing way. Realistically, I am privileged in many ways by living in the U.S. I also feel more confident on freeways in Mass than any road in Brazil. To be honest if I were pregnant and traveling, I would be more concerned about access to health care than zika mosquitos. My brother-in-law has had surgeries put off numerous times in Brazil for brain tumors, simply because doctors were bribed to treat others first. I just find it all very sad..

 

[SorcererMC]

I would be scared to death if I was pregnant and contracted Zika.. The last I read though is that 29% of pregnancies have had some kind of negative outcome. 71% are fine. Other sources say that only 1% to 15% will actually have defects. That's a HUGE discrepancy.

This might clarify the statistical discrepancy:
Those statistics sound like they are from a New England Journal of Medicine preliminary study published in March on outcomes in Bahia, Brazil of 88 pregnant women, 72 of which tested positive for ZIKV. The 29% statistic refers to all adverse outcomes for the Zika-positive pregnant women; the 1% statistic is specific to microcephaly. (In French Polynesia 2013-14, the rate was found to be 1% for microcephaly in a retrospective study).

In May, the CDC estimate for the rate of microcephaly was 1-13% for pregnant women infected in their first trimester.

 

[SorcererMC]

[QUOTE="SorcererMC, post: 7345465, member: 109125"

I don't think the US has faced this kind of potential public health crisis since the poliovirus in the 1940s (from a pediatric medicine perspective).

Not even close to Polio. Zika is a relatively rare virus. As far as tropical diseases and viruses go Zika is minor honestly. Most people won't even realize they have it. People are just fixated on it because of the problems it can cause to unborn children.[/QUOTE]

Polio is a fair comparison as far as public health threats go b/c it required public awareness and the fear of it at the time was quite palpable....the general US public today has no point of reference (and is not calibrated). ETA: Poliovirus is very much like Zika virus in that the most common consequence of poliovirus infection is asymptomatic, usually mild, and short-lived; yet the virus can replicate and be spread widely. Temporary paralysis in 1-2%. The concerns over poliovirus led to ground-breaking vaccine development.

I was specifically referring the expected impact on children exposed in utero; it is not simply a matter of congenital malformations. The long-lasting neurological effects of Zika virus on fetal development are still unknown. For example, a seizure disorder can require lifelong care and can be expensive.

Zika virus is proving itself to be more than a 'minor tropical disease' as has long been thought (hence the prior lack of research/neglect). There is no record of Zika virus causing complications that would require hospitalization until 2013.

I emphasize that caution is necessary in extrapolating what the impact may be on the US population from the impact it is having on other countries in the Americas. ETA: Outbreak projections (not forecasts) based on previous outbreaks suggest that Zika virus infects 66%-80% of a population in tropical climates. Will most of those experience symptoms? No. That's the problem (until herd immunity develops which can take years).

 

[SorcererMC]

Correcting my misstatement: The PAHO website includes suspected cases for Brazil in their epidemiological updates (http://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11599&Itemid=41691&lang=en ). I was thinking of the alerts which don't have as much specific information.

And correcting the second half of this statement as the CDC has released an epidemiological update for Puerto Rico which includes the presumptive cases: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm6530e1.htm?s_cid=mm6530e1_w

Since CDC is reporting this for Puerto Rico I am assuming that it will be reported for the Miami cluster at some point (weeks or months).

 

[SorcererMC]

For the record - today (Q3 FY 2016 earnings released for qtr end July 2)
Disney CEO Iger was asked about what potential impact Zika may have on WDW/Orlando, and his response is that there have been some inquiries but nothing that would indicate an impact on bookings or visitation. The beginning 30-60 seconds of the video.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/zika-has-not-impacted-theme-park-business-disneys-iger-says.html

ETA: "We've had a few calls on it, but we really haven't seen anything that we would be concerned about in terms of its impact on visitation or bookings," he said in an interview on CNBC's Closing Bell.

 

[21stamps]

For the record - today (Q3 FY 2016 earnings released for qtr end July 2)
Disney CEO Iger was asked about what potential impact Zika may have on WDW/Orlando, and his response is that there have been some inquiries but nothing that would indicate an impact on bookings or visitation. The beginning 30-60 seconds of the video.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/zika-has-not-impacted-theme-park-business-disneys-iger-says.html

ETA: "We've had a few calls on it, but we really haven't seen anything that we would be concerned about in terms of its impact on visitation or bookings," he said in an interview on CNBC's Closing Bell.

This gives me hope for mankind.

 

[NormC]

Paranoia, the destroyer.........

 

[SorcererMC]

Paranoia, the destroyer.........

Fortunately, there is a lot more happening in the national media than this story. It's being reported, but not 24/7 like w/ Ebola. Although it is subject to politicization due to the funding issues and being an election year.

For this summer, I think that 1. as long as the Miami cluster continues to be limited, and 2. that more specific info continues to be released (eg FL Dept of Health releasing population testing numbers and pending test numbers), then most tourists will make the distinction between Miami/South FL and Orlando (and take necessary precautions, consult their doctor as necessary, etc.).

 

[21stamps]

Fortunately, there is a lot more happening in the national media than this story. It's being reported, but not 24/7 like w/ Ebola. Although it is subject to politicization due to the funding issues and being an election year.

For this summer, I think that 1. as long as the Miami cluster continues to be limited, and 2. that more specific info continues to be released (eg FL Dept of Health releasing population testing numbers and pending test numbers), then most tourists will make the distinction between Miami/South FL and Orlando (and take necessary precautions, consult their doctor as necessary, etc.).

Yep. I know people on this site love to insult..oops I mean comment..on the amount of Latin or South American people in Orlando. I do know that Orlando is steadily rising in tourism and residence from these countries.. But let's be real, like I've stated too many times, it's not Miami in any shape or form.. It would make a lot of sense why Zika would hit SoFla first (hopefully the only time) out of any other region.

Bottom Line- The state of Florida isn't going to allow their main source of income to be drastically reduced by a pesky mosquito. They will fight it quickly and swiftly.

 

[thomas998]

Fortunately, there is a lot more happening in the national media than this story. It's being reported, but not 24/7 like w/ Ebola. Although it is subject to politicization due to the funding issues and being an election year.

For this summer, I think that 1. as long as the Miami cluster continues to be limited, and 2. that more specific info continues to be released (eg FL Dept of Health releasing population testing numbers and pending test numbers), then most tourists will make the distinction between Miami/South FL and Orlando (and take necessary precautions, consult their doctor as necessary, etc.).

I don't think the Miami cluster will be limited. I just saw the latest "official" number for home grown cases and it is now up to 21. Unless Florida has an unseasonably cold winter this isn't going to be over by a long shot until they develop a vaccine or stop playing around with new pesticides and bring back some old ones that were banned years ago.

 

[21stamps]

I don't think the Miami cluster will be limited. I just saw the latest "official" number for home grown cases and it is now up to 21. Unless Florida has an unseasonably cold winter this isn't going to be over by a long shot until they develop a vaccine or stop playing around with new pesticides and bring back some old ones that were banned years ago.

How warm do you think Orlando is in the winter? It's not hot, it's actually typically cold. It is not a tropic climate...once again, not all of Florida can be lumped together.

If we are using Brazil as an example..who has much higher winter temps than Orlando, and even SoFla, then why are we still worried? Did I miss something in the news about Olympians and fans contracting the virus?

 

[mimitchi33]

Paranoia, the destroyer.........

Exactly. My mom says the only people who should be worried about Zikka are pregnant women.

 

[Aqueeta]

Exactly. My mom says the only people who should be worried about Zikka are pregnant women.

Don't forget the business owners. The CDC advisory is having a huge impact on Wynwood businesses.

The national attention and a CDC travel advisory, recommending pregnant women avoid the area, is backfiring on business owners.

"We did 10 percent of revenue on Saturday compared to the usual Saturday. When you consider Saturday is 50 percent of our weekly revenue that is the impact it's having on us," one business-owner said.

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflo...a-stricken-businesses-press-officials-to.html
​

 

[SorcererMC]

I don't think the Miami cluster will be limited. I just saw the latest "official" number for home grown cases and it is now up to 21. Unless Florida has an unseasonably cold winter this isn't going to be over by a long shot until they develop a vaccine or stop playing around with new pesticides and bring back some old ones that were banned years ago.

I don't think that 'it's over' (there is a cyclical nature to ZIKV b/c of mosquitoes as vectors and climate patterns).....but unless/until more clusters start revealing themselves rapidly over the next month, I'm hedging against my pessimism. The US, and FL in particular, had a 'heads up' on this several months ago.

For other ZIKV outbreaks, the virus had been circulating for several months before it was detected.

For the Wynwood, Miami cluster, according to the Wall St Journal, the index case of local transmission was a pregnant woman who was a 'sentinel' for it. I could see that happening elsewhere since pregnant women are 2x as likely to get bit by a mosquito, more likely to be tested, and more likely for the virus to be found. And if symptoms were from 'early June' (around the start of mosquito season), it means that ZIKV has been circulating in Wynwood for several weeks, but still a fairly low confirmed case count (IMO). As of today's FL Dept Health update 08-10-16:
1. Open investigation of 2 Wynwood cases; from the 498 samples collected (424 negative, 18 positive, and 46 pending)
2. Open investigation of 1 Miami-Dade case; from 19 samples collected (18 negative, 0 positive, and 1 pending)
2. Closed investigation of 2 Wynwood initial cases where 124 contacts and community individuals tested and no additional positives.

 

[thomas998]

How warm do you think Orlando is in the winter? It's not hot, it's actually typically cold. It is not a tropic climate...once again, not all of Florida can be lumped together.

If we are using Brazil as an example..who has much higher winter temps than Orlando, and even SoFla, then why are we still worried? Did I miss something in the news about Olympians and fans contracting the virus?

I know it isn't tropical climate in Orlando, but when the average low in December is 52 and the average high 73, those temps don't usually do much to kill mosquitoes you need a good killing freeze.

 

[21stamps]

I know it isn't tropical climate in Orlando, but when the average low in December is 52 and the average high 73, those temps don't usually do much to kill mosquitoes you need a good killing freeze.

In South America the average lows are much higher than an Orlando winter, and it seems that the Zika outbreak has declined since Summer's end.