Zika Impact

21stamps

Well-Known Member
@SorcererMC I thought you may find this interesting. I received this email from DCL today. It doesn't contain any info that I don't already know, but it's nice that they are notifying people in case others don't do as much research.
image.jpeg
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
@SorcererMC I thought you may find this interesting. I received this email from DCL today. It doesn't contain any info that I don't already know, but it's nice that they are notifying people in case others don't do as much research. View attachment 155900

Thanks for sharing that. I'm glad to see they are being proactive. It makes sense too, since the cruises are more likely to experience a decline in tourists over Zika.
 

21stamps

Well-Known Member
Thanks for sharing that. I'm glad to see they are being proactive. It makes sense too, since the cruises are more likely to experience a decline in tourists over Zika.
They haven't yet though. I'm thinking they'll be fine. I'm sure a few cancel or don't book, but I'd say the vast majority still go.
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
I have no needs. Just presenting facts instead of media hype and paranoia.

Had you bothered to read the page in this thread prior to asking for a 'peer-reviewed' journal, you would have found another post with a link to an article explaining the current research that is being done (which describes the Zika virus mechanism in neuroprogenitor cells that causes microcephaly). The medical journal article I posted was not 'good enough' for you either. No one here (including me) can be inside your head and know what sort of evidence you are looking for. I'm glad you finally relented and searched, instead of asking others what you could so easily find yourself.

It's not paranoia when the threat is real, and when public awareness matters. Maybe it's not a real threat to you, but for thousands of couples of child-bearing age who live in the southern US or plan to visit, it is - even if only a small number may eventually personally be impacted. It also means that everyone in those moderate to high-risk areas take precautions like using bug spray and removing standing water so as to not unknowingly contribute to its spread. I encourage awareness and knowing the facts, as much as is possible as the research evolves. To be clear, this is essentially the position I have been taking throughout this entire thread.
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
They haven't yet though. I'm thinking they'll be fine. I'm sure a few cancel or don't book, but I'd say the vast majority still go.

Right - I think those who may be concerned or may be affected just won't book. Perhaps not in sufficient numbers to have an impact on the cruise line. Re: travel to the Caribbean, according to the CDC in June, nearly half of the US travel-related cases (n=591) were from travel to the Caribbean, so it's important that travelers are aware and take necessary precautions. The cruise line may not have any liability for something like Zika, but it's nice to know they are taking responsibility for passenger awareness.
 

NormC

Well-Known Member
My position has always been about facts, not media hype and paranoia. I did read what you posted. It agreed with me. Even the researchers in the links we have both posted state there is more research needed and more data to be collected. Caution is good, hysteria is not. We are on the same page. Chill out.
 
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SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
My position has always been about facts, not media hype and paranoia. I did read what you posted. It agreed with me. Even the researchers in the links we have both posted state there is more research needed and more data to be collected. Caution is good, hysteria is not. We are on the same page. Chill out.
Got it! I think we are on the same page as well. It honestly was not clear to me from your earlier posts.

Edit: I generally don't mind disagreement, as long as I understand 'on what grounds'.
 
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thomas998

Well-Known Member
Just ran across some study indicating the virus may impact adult brains in a manner similar to Alzheimer... Give that and the apparent spread beyond the initial 1 mile in Miami area I'm starting to wonder as a Disney shareholder if this may impact the attendance at WDW... Doesn't look like any good news related to zika is out there, just more doom and gloom.
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
Just ran across some study indicating the virus may impact adult brains in a manner similar to Alzheimer... Give that and the apparent spread beyond the initial 1 mile in Miami area I'm starting to wonder as a Disney shareholder if this may impact the attendance at WDW... Doesn't look like any good news related to zika is out there, just more doom and gloom.

I'm still not ready to declare WDW attendance doomed at this time. I'm watching how Miami/South FL tourism will be affected. A tourist destination would typically see a decline of 5-15% in attendance when there is what I would call a 'deterrent event' like a natural disaster or disease...if you take something like the CA wildfire, hotels adjacent to the wildfire area but not close to it were reporting bookings down 50%. So it really depends on the nature of the threat and how the tourist/public perceives it. Last I read, there is still a lot of apathy and plenty of misinformation about Zika among the general American public. And when it comes to assessing risk, most people think 'it won't happen to me', and if they do, they take precautions.

On the other hand, FL state economists have downgraded the projected revenue forecasts due to the anticipated impact on the tourism industry. I'm thinking that the focus is still on South FL and not central FL/ Orlando.

Edit: And if WDW did take a hit on a attendance, it would likely rebound within 6-12 months IMO. I don't think it really would take a hit unless there is a travel advisory specific to Orlando, which there's not.
 
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thomas998

Well-Known Member
I'm still not ready to declare WDW attendance doomed at this time. I'm watching how Miami/South FL tourism will be affected. A tourist destination would typically see a decline of 5-15% in attendance when there is what I would call a 'deterrent event' like a natural disaster or disease...if you take something like the CA wildfire, hotels adjacent to the wildfire area but not close to it were reporting bookings down 50%. So it really depends on the nature of the threat and how the tourist/public perceives it. Last I read, there is still a lot of apathy and plenty of misinformation about Zika among the general American public. And when it comes to assessing risk, most people think 'it won't happen to me', and if they do, they take precautions.

On the other hand, FL state economists have downgraded the projected revenue forecasts due to the anticipated impact on the tourism industry. I'm thinking that the focus is still on South FL and not central FL/ Orlando.
Biggest impact is going to be when the first case in central Florida comes about... They already have 53 cases in Orange county that were travel related.. Its going to be a race against time now for the weather to cool off before some mosquitoes start spreading it around now... Because you know if they have 53 cases confirmed there are likely more that are carriers and don't even realize they have the virus.
 

Aqueeta

Member
Looks like it is spreading and I would imagine that Zika is infecting a whole lot more people than what we are hearing about.

Zika Infects 5 in Miami Beach, Governor Rick Scott Says

Zika is now spreading in two places in Florida — in Miami Beach as well as an area north of Miami, Governor Rick Scott confirmed Friday.
Five people have been infected by Zika locally in Miami Beach, including three tourists, Scott said at a news conference.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a new travel warning, telling pregnant women to avoid the popular tourist area if at all possible.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/zi...-miami-beach-governor-rick-scott-says-n634491
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
Biggest impact is going to be when the first case in central Florida comes about... They already have 53 cases in Orange county that were travel related.. Its going to be a race against time now for the weather to cool off before some mosquitoes start spreading it around now... Because you know if they have 53 cases confirmed there are likely more that are carriers and don't even realize they have the virus.

It depends on the behavior of those 53 individuals and how doctors are advising them, and others' behavior in the area. Are infected individuals going outside a lot where they might get bitten by mosquitoes, or are they taking precautions against infecting others? Are they (everyone) using insect repellant? There is a limited window for transmission by mosquitoes, when Zika is in the bloodstream. (I'm not getting into sexual transmission here since it doesn't seem to be the main route of infection, although it is a concern of course).

Silent transmission is of course an issue - from what I can tell, FL Dept of Health is testing for both the presence of the virus and for IgM antibodies, so they should be 'catching' individuals who may have had it. Not that the test is perfect, but that kind of testing is being done in infected areas via contact tracing and random sampling.

There's probably another month's worth of mosquito season; at least September is typically 'slow' tourist season, and I tend to think that holiday bookings would mostly 'stay the same' even if there were a locally-acquired case in central Florida.
 

SorcererMC

Well-Known Member
Quick Links for reference:

2016 CellStemCell Zika Virus Infects Neural Progenitors in Adult Mouse Brain
http://www.cell.com/cell-stem-cell/fulltext/S1934-5909(16)30252-1

FL Dept Health Zika Virus (including maps of Miami affected areas and ongoing investigations)
http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/index.html?utm_source=flhealthIndex

FL Dept Health Daily Updates
http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/index.html

CDC Zika Virus page
http://www.cdc.gov/zika/index.html
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
Silent transmission is of course an issue - from what I can tell, FL Dept of Health is testing for both the presence of the virus and for IgM antibodies, so they should be 'catching' individuals who may have had it. Not that the test is perfect, but that kind of testing is being done in infected areas via contact tracing and random sampling.

Trouble is Zike is a lot like Polio was... a lot of people that get it won't even realize they have it and will never go to a doctor. Would be nice if they would test all the people donating blood as that would be a better proxy of the number in the area that have it.
 

Sundown

Well-Known Member
Zika is a horrible, horrible infection. My heart goes out to everyone involved & people should be right to be cautious. And the media is right to bring attention to it. I just wish there was as much coverage of the scourge that is Lyme Disease. 300K+ infections yearly, misdiagnosed all the time, life altering, debilitating symptoms...just plain awful. I can only compare it to how back in the 80s there was a huge knowledge gap with the medical community & fact vs. fiction regarding HIV. If you get Lyme and it goes undetected, your life is f'ed. And you may never know you have it.

Sorry, just had to remark as two close family member's lives have been ruined by Lyme.
 

ynahtebwdw

Member
Just got back from wdw and noticed more mosquitos than ever on property, was bitten at least 4 times whilst at the hotel (AKL) and a further 2 times in the parks compared to never being bitten in wdw before, seems to me like they are reducing whatever insect repellant they use. Also noticed lots more flies hovering and populating food areas than ever before (i know flies have nothing to do with zika, just corroborating my point about repellant)
 

Nemo14

Well-Known Member
Zika is a horrible, horrible infection. My heart goes out to everyone involved & people should be right to be cautious. And the media is right to bring attention to it. I just wish there was as much coverage of the scourge that is Lyme Disease. 300K+ infections yearly, misdiagnosed all the time, life altering, debilitating symptoms...just plain awful. I can only compare it to how back in the 80s there was a huge knowledge gap with the medical community & fact vs. fiction regarding HIV. If you get Lyme and it goes undetected, your life is f'ed. And you may never know you have it.

Sorry, just had to remark as two close family member's lives have been ruined by Lyme.
You're so right about Lyme. My sister has it and it she suffers rather severe pain all the time, and has developed so many food allergies that there is hardly anything besides grilled chicken that she can eat.
 

21stamps

Well-Known Member
Just got back from wdw and noticed more mosquitos than ever on property, was bitten at least 4 times whilst at the hotel (AKL) and a further 2 times in the parks compared to never being bitten in wdw before, seems to me like they are reducing whatever insect repellant they use. Also noticed lots more flies hovering and populating food areas than ever before (i know flies have nothing to do with zika, just corroborating my point about repellant)
Were you wearing mosquito repellent?
 

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