A Spirited Perfect Ten

[WDW1974]

Thanks for thinking of me. Almost got palpitations when I saw my name and HKDL!

This wouldn't have anything to do with the second gate, would it? (It was acknowledged by the HK Government at council recently if you missed it).

I'm also curious on @WDWFigment review of Kitchen Calamity, is that up for my viewing pleasure somewhere?

Oh, and I'm pumped for the 60th offerings. I wouldn't actually trade all the upgrades and entertainment offerings for a splashy E-ticket. They are doing about everything but add a new attraction... And I'm totally ok with that.

I haven't seen one and would love to hear his thoughts here. I've generally heard good things about it, but not great at all. I had no clue he had even been there since his first visit in 2012 until today. He also has an interesting take on UNI after FINALLY returning there for the first time as an adult (naturally, he had to do Osaka too!) I agree with many of his opinions, but not all. I think the pixie dust is still strong in him. (Oh, he's also bought into the cult of In N Out being more than just a good fast food option by saying they are better than Fuddruckers, which they are not!)

I am VERY up to date on what is going on with HKDL. And that's all I will say on that for now.

And I am fine with DL's 60th offerings myself too. They all look to be good or great (not including what hasn't been announced like all the attraction plusings and seasonal stuff). Besides, they are adding an entire land to both DL and DCA in the near future, albeit with distinctly newly purchased IP, so the attractions are on the way.

 

[flynnibus]

I don't think this model is any more sustainable than WDW's business model, but I also think it can go on for many more years before change has to happen.

So here's another twist on that to ponder/discuss...

We think these models (including the Disney Parks direction) is unhealthy for long term health.. but we can see because of inertia, past success, brand loyalty, etc they can make the model work... and the mob for the most part knows no better, so they still think everything is awesome. The recent posts in the Wrapped Bus thread re-enforce it even more... the flawed model is 'good enough' for most people and they happily suck it up.. even taking it for the real-thing and knowing no better. (I have images of Detroit ringing in my head...)

These defective models can sustain themselves as long as the market blindly follows and keeps feeding the monster. So beyond the minority that aspires for something better, but isn't significant enough to cause the monster to change it's course... What do we think could expose the model for what it is? Keeping it in the context of the parks.. What could rock it to the point of the unhealthy living actually coming back to haunt the host?

In many industries... it takes a shift in technology, or a disruptor that introduces some new way or theory... that rapidly expands while the incumbant is slow or unable to change... and their revenue base declines or evaporates.

I don't think anyone will radically change the concept of a family vacation in our lifetimes... so what else could put Disney at risk? Is there any possibility of an 'iphone' kind of disruptor that redefines how people consume the products? Could 'better product' be enough to dethrone them over time?

I don't expect we'll see a PC that eats the mainframe kind of moment...
Disney has hooks in GENERATIONS of people... so even the "someone else offers better product" would take decades to get to virgin audiences that love the other before they love Disney...

So what poses any risk to Disney's line of thought?

The only thing that has seemed to hurt them has been people's ability to travel and their own income. As long as they can travel and pay... they seem willing to consume whatever Disney is sellling. (buy GM, not Toyota...).

With the generations hook Disney has through media... is it even possible for them to screw it up to the point of failing? I wonder....

 

[TalkingHead]

Much like the MAJOR work coming to IOA that has nothing to do with a giant monkey (and that I haven't seen anywhere online). Yes, this is a hint to the folks who gave me the info that I'd really like to put it out there just to see the insanity ensue (because WDW fans will read huge things into that resort, all untrue, based upon both the HKDL and IOA news!) And sometimes it is fun to sit back, have a nice spicy Bloody Mary and watch the train wreck.

I've got my fingers crossed really tightly that it's for Toon Lagoon or that section of godawful games between Toon Lagoon and Marvel.

 

[BrerJon]

I thought Sofia the First herself was supposed to be Latina? Could have sworn I read that when the show came out.

Yup they definitely promoted her that way at first, I remember several articles on it. Maybe the idea was quietly dropped later?

http://gawker.com/5952893/disney-de...l-fight-about-whether-or-not-she-looks-latina

 

[Rodan75]

So so true.

What does it say about the flaws of that system, that model, that only recently did Big Hero 6 actually cross into the black?

Why not put out many smaller budget films? Oh, yeah, because Iger's ego won't allow that. Same reason why Agents of SHIELD hasn't been axed yet on ABC.

What happens when Disney has two or three films bomb like that in one fiscal year? Think it can't happen? Iger feels the same way.

No doubt it can happen, Sony is proof it can. And that you can survive it. The 'only Tentpoles' strategy was already walked back by Alan Horn in various interviews.

But go back to those singles and doubles at this moment in time, unless they are horror movies they aren't great bets at the box office domestically or internationally and they rarely generate the ancillary licensing revenue that helps that disney thrives on.

However I'm 100% behind making franchise Tentpoles cost less. The budgets for these movies are managed poorly, let alone the waste in the marketing budgets. (I would love to see the breakdown of green dollar and blue dollar costs for these movies.)

 

[BrianLo]

I am VERY up to date on what is going on with HKDL. And that's all I will say on that for now.

And I am fine with DL's 60th offerings myself too. They all look to be good or great (not including what hasn't been announced like all the attraction plusings and seasonal stuff). Besides, they are adding an entire land to both DL and DCA in the near future, albeit with distinctly newly purchased IP, so the attractions are on the way.

Thanks, enough said!

I'll await the all clear as semi-patiently as ever.

Will you get to DL for the 60th?

 

[WDW1974]

Anyone been on the job board lately to see if meg and Erin's positions are posted?

Or is another back door deck chair reshuffling imminent?

I think Erin's position will be split and exiting bodies will fill it.

Meg's position either ceases to exist or George gets one last 3-year deal that takes him to age 65. My money is on the former.

 

[WDW1974]

Do you think there's any chance Iger will stay on as Chairman of the Board for a short period after the new CEO takes over? I think it could help ease the anxiety from Wall Street. It may possibly delay meaningful change though. I would hope that the CEO/chairman positions are split apart after Iger steps down.

No.

 

[lazyboy97o]

So here's another twist on that to ponder/discuss...

We think these models (including the Disney Parks direction) is unhealthy for long term health.. but we can see because of inertia, past success, brand loyalty, etc they can make the model work... and the mob for the most part knows no better, so they still think everything is awesome. The recent posts in the Wrapped Bus thread re-enforce it even more... the flawed model is 'good enough' for most people and they happily suck it up.. even taking it for the real-thing and knowing no better. (I have images of Detroit ringing in my head...)

These defective models can sustain themselves as long as the market blindly follows and keeps feeding the monster. So beyond the minority that aspires for something better, but isn't significant enough to cause the monster to change it's course... What do we think could expose the model for what it is? Keeping it in the context of the parks.. What could rock it to the point of the unhealthy living actually coming back to haunt the host?

In many industries... it takes a shift in technology, or a disruptor that introduces some new way or theory... that rapidly expands while the incumbant is slow or unable to change... and their revenue base declines or evaporates.

I don't think anyone will radically change the concept of a family vacation in our lifetimes... so what else could put Disney at risk? Is there any possibility of an 'iphone' kind of disruptor that redefines how people consume the products? Could 'better product' be enough to dethrone them over time?

I don't expect we'll see a PC that eats the mainframe kind of moment...
Disney has hooks in GENERATIONS of people... so even the "someone else offers better product" would take decades to get to virgin audiences that love the other before they love Disney...

So what poses any risk to Disney's line of thought?

The only thing that has seemed to hurt them has been people's ability to travel and their own income. As long as they can travel and pay... they seem willing to consume whatever Disney is sellling. (buy GM, not Toyota...).

With the generations hook Disney has through media... is it even possible for them to screw it up to the point of failing? I wonder....

Death, and probably a few at that. It's the most extreme outcome of the model and the only one that is clearly problematic to the clueless and unconcerned.

 

[WDW1974]

They tried a full-time ship in Galveston and couldn't fill it. There were some good last minute prices on some of the sailings.

Yeah, Galveston is the only home port where DCL has really struggled. They were not planning on returning originally. I think delays in the PC expansion changed a lot of near term future plans.

 

[Mike S]

I've got my fingers crossed really tightly that it's for Toon Lagoon or that section of godawful games between Toon Lagoon and Marvel.

As much as I kind of enjoy the scenery of Toon Lagoon and enjoy Popeye I actually haven't done the rides there recently. I'm never really in the mood to get so soaked. Dudley is just embarrassing on the inside imo. Like the Lost Continent the land could probably be put to better use as something else.

 

[WDW1974]

No doubt it can happen, Sony is proof it can. And that you can survive it. The 'only Tentpoles' strategy was already walked back by Alan Horn in various interviews.

But go back to those singles and doubles at this moment in time, unless they are horror movies they aren't great bets at the box office domestically or internationally and they rarely generate the ancillary licensing revenue that helps that disney thrives on.

However I'm 100% behind making franchise Tentpoles cost less. The budgets for these movies are managed poorly, let alone the waste in the marketing budgets. (I would love to see the breakdown of green dollar and blue dollar costs for these movies.)

It has been walked back by Horn, but his boss is mandating that it continue as a strategy. And with all of his acquisitions poised to have blockbusters in 2015, it ain't changing.

 

[Rodan75]

I just have a hard time getting my head around the issue that movie budges are growing faster than the movie market. Meaning, not only do films need to do more to be successful, they need more of the total market for themselves to be successful. Generally this leads to shrinking the # of products out there.. (and we've seen that with Disney.. less films out). The cycle just doesn't look to be sustainable.. yet somehow they have.

Will a studio really collapse, or will it just act like silly puddy where somehow they can tear parts off and remold them and remold them and no one really will know the difference in the end result?

I mean when people lose on these films... the losses hit someone eventually... the line of suckers willing to empty their pockets can't be endless.. and it's not like the government who can just print more money

I think the risk is that within the next 5 years the 'mini-majors' like Lionsgate or MGM end up out of mainstream Theatrical altogether and only provide to arthouse and the streaming/cable markets. And I would assume at least one of the majors, Likely Sony Pictures but maybe WB or Paramount will get sucked up into Uni, Fox or Dis.

Assuming Wanda or Alibaba don't swoop in and change the U.S. game completely.

 

[WDW1974]

Thanks, enough said!

I'll await the all clear as semi-patiently as ever.

Will you get to DL for the 60th?

Yes, multiple times. But unlike every blogger, I won't be there in May. I don't have to be the first to see anything and report to my flock.

I really would like to be out there now as I suspect the parks are largely very quiet, except Friday nights and all day on Sundays.

 

[Lee]

Much like the MAJOR work coming to IOA that has nothing to do with a giant monkey (and that I haven't seen anywhere online). Yes, this is a hint to the folks who gave me the info that I'd really like to put it out there just to see the insanity ensue (because WDW fans will read huge things into that resort, all untrue, based upon both the HKDL and IOA news!) And sometimes it is fun to sit back, have a nice spicy Bloody Mary and watch the train wreck.

Warn me ahead of time so's I can make popcorn. I like snacks while watching heads go all Scanners...

 

[WDW1974]

I think the risk is that within the next 5 years the 'mini-majors' like Lionsgate or MGM end up out of mainstream Theatrical altogether and only provide to arthouse and the streaming/cable markets. And I would assume at least one of the majors, Likely Sony Pictures but maybe WB or Paramount will get sucked up into Uni, Fox or Dis.

Assuming Wanda or Alibaba don't swoop in and change the U.S. game completely.

A fanboi friend who reads every word I write (who doesn't, right?) has been trying to convince me for over a year that Bob has his sights on Warners and that just is not happening. Just imagine the fanboi blather if TWDC owned the theatrical home of The Boy Who Lived.

And Wanda is one to watch. Seriously.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

So here's another twist on that to ponder/discuss...

We think these models (including the Disney Parks direction) is unhealthy for long term health.. but we can see because of inertia, past success, brand loyalty, etc they can make the model work... and the mob for the most part knows no better, so they still think everything is awesome. The recent posts in the Wrapped Bus thread re-enforce it even more... the flawed model is 'good enough' for most people and they happily suck it up.. even taking it for the real-thing and knowing no better. (I have images of Detroit ringing in my head...)

These defective models can sustain themselves as long as the market blindly follows and keeps feeding the monster. So beyond the minority that aspires for something better, but isn't significant enough to cause the monster to change it's course... What do we think could expose the model for what it is? Keeping it in the context of the parks.. What could rock it to the point of the unhealthy living actually coming back to haunt the host?

In many industries... it takes a shift in technology, or a disruptor that introduces some new way or theory... that rapidly expands while the incumbant is slow or unable to change... and their revenue base declines or evaporates.

I don't think anyone will radically change the concept of a family vacation in our lifetimes... so what else could put Disney at risk? Is there any possibility of an 'iphone' kind of disruptor that redefines how people consume the products? Could 'better product' be enough to dethrone them over time?

I don't expect we'll see a PC that eats the mainframe kind of moment...
Disney has hooks in GENERATIONS of people... so even the "someone else offers better product" would take decades to get to virgin audiences that love the other before they love Disney...

So what poses any risk to Disney's line of thought?

The only thing that has seemed to hurt them has been people's ability to travel and their own income. As long as they can travel and pay... they seem willing to consume whatever Disney is sellling. (buy GM, not Toyota...).

With the generations hook Disney has through media... is it even possible for them to screw it up to the point of failing? I wonder....

At least for O-town, one way to force Disney to change would be through erosion of market share over time as the overall market grows. As @ParentsOf4 and I have noted in the past, the Orlando tourism market will continue to grow over the medium to long term. If Comcast continues its aggressive investment in UOR with more hotel rooms, water park(s), a third and potentially a forth gate (waay down the road), UNI would be in a position to absorb a greater share of the growing market. Disney's philosophy of drawing from its base, pricing guests out of its hotel rooms which in turn will likely lead to more DVC conversions of the existing hotel supply, an obsession with efficiency and cutting instead of generating true VALUE, and small increases in capacity at the parks could lead to a situation where the parks cannot handle enough of the growing market that it would be increasingly difficult for the resort to grow ORGANICALLY and compete in the central FL market the way they do now. That's the problem, Disney is not growing WDW's business organically and eventually it will bite them really hard in the future. The question, as you posed, is when?

 

[Nubs70]

Huh?

Long story but to distill the lesson learned, when one is on Bourbon Street and sees what appears to be 3 beautiful women, and upon closer inspection, you should not proclaim "Look at the Adam's Apple on that one!" It is best to keep the observation to oneself. I thought I was in for a serious beat down.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

A fanboi friend who reads every word I write (who doesn't, right?) has been trying to convince me for over a year that Bob has his sights on Warners and that just is not happening. Just imagine the fanboi blather if TWDC owned the theatrical home of The Boy Who Lived.

And Wanda is one to watch. Seriously.

Wanda is currently planning a new headquarters in Beverly Hills. A sure sign someone wants to go Hollywood.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-developer-buys-robinsonsmay-site-20140808-story.html

 

[lazyboy97o]

As much as I kind of enjoy the scenery of Toon Lagoon and enjoy Popeye I actually haven't done the rides there recently. I'm never really in the mood to get so soaked. Dudley is just embarrassing on the inside imo. Like the Lost Continent the land could probably be put to better use as something else.

The attraction only becomes more embarrassing sigh each passing year as show quality continues to improve. It'd be nice to see it finally built out as intended. While I never ride them, I would be sad to see both of Toon Lagoon's ride paths disappear. Just as pure rides they're a lot of fun.