Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[flynnibus]

Yes. But. Now your game device is linked to a unique identifier. Will that be able to see what other games you play and hense, targeted advertising to you?

You mean like every online service that you play with an account?

Apple IDs?
XBox Live?
PSN?
EA Sports?
Steam?

Much ado about nothing here...

 

[PeterAlt]

EPCOT was over 2.3x it's original budget.

DLP was 4-5x it's original budget depending on what numbers you trust.

Yes, but they expanded the monorail system and planted footers, and dug utilidore tunnels, and opened a day park in the process. DHS and DAK were built on budget, but were half-day parks with no monorail, buried footers, or utilidores. So, go figure.

 

[Travel Junkie]

Or maybe they realized that the concussions-in-sports angle is politically charged drivel that nobody cares about except New York Times readers (hence the article).

I'm sorry but concussions in sports is a major issue and in particular the NFL. Google NFL concussion lawsuit and see how many former players are using the NFL for hiding information about concussions. The number is in the thousands. It is not unreasonable to think that in 10-15 years the sport of football will look nothing like it does today as they remove violence more and more from the game to prevent more lawsuits from being filed.

Bottom line is the NFL has been trying to deny or limit the information about the dangers of concussions for years. There is no doubt they could (and appears they did) pressure ESPN to drop their involvement in the documentary. Fox Sports 1 wants the Monday night games when the rights become available again and the NFL can certainly hint to ESPN that if they don't place nice they will take their business elsewhere. The NFL has influenced ESPN in the past. ESPN dropped a TV series after one season that didn't sit well with the NFL.

 

[ParentsOf4]

It is a well-studied phenomenon that a great number of ICT projects are delivered over budget, past deadline, without realising their goals.

If you pay me $85k, I'll tell you why. (Hints: set clear goals, appoint non-ICT management as the head of the project, set up a seprate project for every goal)

It is not just Disney. They all fall for very predictable - if fiendishly difficult to avoid - trappings:
http://www.infoq.com/news/2011/10/risky-it-projects

Perhaps the most amazing aspect of NextGen is that Disney abandoned what they historically do best, brick-and-mortar theme park attractions, for what they historically do worst, digital technology ventures.

 

[John]

I'm sorry but concussions in sports is a major issue and in particular the NFL. Google NFL concussion lawsuit and see how many former players are using the NFL for hiding information about concussions. The number is in the thousands. It is not unreasonable to think that in 10-15 years the sport of football will look nothing like it does today as they remove violence more and more from the game to prevent more lawsuits from being filed.

Bottom line is the NFL has been trying to deny or limit the information about the dangers of concussions for years. There is no doubt they could (and appears they did) pressure ESPN to drop their involvement in the documentary. Fox Sports 1 wants the Monday night games when the rights become available again and the NFL can certainly hint to ESPN that if they don't place nice they will take their business elsewhere. The NFL has influenced ESPN in the past. ESPN dropped a TV series after one season that didn't sit well with the NFL.

Sorry 74...another derailment happening here. I promise this is my first and last installment on the subject. I will give you some background first. I was a football coach for 17 years....played the sport for many years. Did I play professionally? no...but I think given the amount of time playing the game coaching the game and being a student of the game gives me some insight to the subject. First the object of the game is not only to score a touchdown but it also to knock the snot out of the person in front of you. That said I promise you every single player knows when they put on the helmet that there is a risk not only for a xoncussion but they are at risk to actually lose their life.

I personally think that this lawsuit is frivolous. Is the fact that there is past players with serious complications a problem? absolutely. But to sue the NFL because the NFL "hid" information on concussions makes no more sense then to say they have been hiding information about knee injuries. Yes concussions are more serious but as prevalent. These players all know what they are signing up for. They make millions. No the past players did not make what they make now and IMO there should be a fund set up tohelp these players to provide healthcare etc.

The real crime....what gets overlooked is in the college and high school game. 99.9% of these players never make millions....does not participate in a mega million dollar law suit. The colleges make millions and millions and these players get zippo! IMO the players in this suit are trying to get a payday. I am sure there are a percentage that has a claim but most just want a piece of the billion dollar pie. There will most likely be a settlement just like there was for the tobacco law suit. It's a sham....a scam. NFL will just raise ticket....merch...beer and all NFL property to pay for it. We the NFL fan will pay for it.

Now to your theory that the NFL will not look like it does today? ABSOLUTELY and also IMO it will not be the billion dollar king of sports. In the end.....I want to see my Ravens knock the snot out of the Steelers.

 

[Yensid1974]

@WDW1974 Any hints as to when these new posts would go up? Not trying to push you for them, just wondering so I can keep a weathered eye open as I take care of real life stuff. Oh, and thanks again for continuing to post in the face of a lot of accusations tossed in your direction. You know where I work so you know I have a vested interest in how these things end up playing out in the future. I have another question for you but that will be reserved for a pm at some time in the near future as well.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Perhaps the most amazing aspect of NextGen is that Disney abandoned what they historically do best, brick-and-motor theme park attractions, for what they historically do worst, digital technology ventures.

This was supposed to be Iget's thing. He was supposed to user in this new of a technologically forward Disney that would change how entertainment content is distributed. But instead Disney has again had to follow. Iger seems like the guy who is amazed by his iPhone but needs a cadre of Geniuses to do the most basic tasks on it.

 

[NoChesterHester]

Perhaps the most amazing aspect of NextGen is that Disney abandoned what they historically do best, brick-and-mortar theme park attractions, for what they historically do worst, digital technology ventures.

There is no good way to twist the lack of real new things to do because of the development cost of this project.

I liken it to that Jim Hill article about a year ago... They ARE spending money at WDW, it is just going to this like infrastructure... you should still be happy.

Meh.

 

[flynnibus]

What was the go.com issue?

Back in the first dot.com boom... big media companies were eager to tap this 'new internet thing' and were paying obscene amounts of money to buy up companies and build an online juggernaut.. or so they thought. Disney jumped into the fray.. buying lots of things with basically no real cohesive, legitimate strategy. Their master plan was go.com - the idea of a NEW web portal.. while others were already established.. like yahoo, etc. Through a series of moves.. Disney ultimately blew over 2 billion dollars (in 1999 dollars!!) acquiring Infoseek and others to basically strip and rebrand the services as 'go.com' and redid all of Disney's internet properties to be part of go.com. In the trendy fashion of the day... Disney even setup go.com to be traded on the open stock market. It's the days of hot IPOs man... everyone paying way too much just so they aren't left behind.. and Disney played along nicely like the fools they were.

They set it all up in 1999.. and basically gave up on it in 2001. 2+ billion dollars to aquire properties and brands.. which they turned around and threw out to create their own new identity that NO ONE had any interest in. The whole thing basically was a disaster from the start.. and was a great example of people with too much money trying to simply buy their way into the internet era without a freaking clue. The dot-com bubble pop crushed them in the process.

This is just one of many of Disney's gaffs in this area.. aborted attempts to get into digital media, etc. The lingering stink of go.com hangs around for some unknown reason in that all of Disney's sites still base their main sites off go.com's domain! It's why EPSN.com redirects to espn.go.com, etc.

The domain's continue use just stands as a reminder to the absolute reckless spending of the company at the time combined with absolutely no solid leadership in this discipline inside the company during those early dot-com years.

 

[AEfx]

For all its real (and perceived) faults, WalMart has put a significant amount of effort into inventory tracking, supply chain management, and predictive and reactionary sales.

1) I have read repeatedly that WalMart orders inventory on a sell-and-replace basis that automatically places an order when a product is scanned at the register. This allows them to keep the stores full but also to see exactly when items sell - which has to give some pretty amazing analytics. Obvious connection is food/beverage and merch sales. Also would let them tie that turkey leg to the plush bought two days later.

OK, your post made me LOL.

Your point is completely valid (all of them, not just the quoted) and astute. However, I just had a giggle thinking about tying the turkey leg to the plush example.

I'm picturing a dad who ate the turkey leg having bad gas that night, grossing out his little kid so he bought them a plush toy the next time they were in a store in the park to make up for "Daddy's smell bad time". And when the kid gets home, proudly showing off the toy and telling everyone how his favorite time at Disney was when Daddy had too much gas, ROFL.

I know, I know...juvenile...but it instantly came to mind.

Perhaps the most amazing aspect of NextGen is that Disney abandoned what they historically do best, brick-and-mortar theme park attractions, for what they historically do worst, digital technology ventures.

Amen. Gosh I like you, LOL. You get it.

Yes. But. Now your game device is linked to a unique identifier. Will that be able to see what other games you play and hense, targeted advertising to you?

That's really completely trivial in this case.

• Your console is already tied to (at least one) unique identifier particularly if you take it online.

• Disney Infinity already has access your system, and any possible reporting of your games, activities, etc. as any other console game (whatever is allowed by the manufacturer of the system to access).

• Each Disney Infinity product/figure/etc. comes (everything except the blind-pack power discs) with a web code to register online, so your Disney Infinity stuff will be usable in the coming PC version and the iPad App (if you don't register them, among other things, that content you have unlocked in the console game will not be available so you cannot edit your Toy Box on the PC or iPad, which is a major game feature)

• Your unique console ID is linked to all this through the Disney Infinity website, which you access with...your DISNEY.COM account.

• Your DISNEY.COM account is already linked to your Resort Account/Information, so Disney could already get this data without involving the Magic Band.

Since your DISNEY.COM account is already linked to your Magic Band, it would serve no purpose because you are just telling it what it already knows (that you own both products, and what their unique identifiers are) should Disney care to know.

It's simply an Easter Egg, a treat since both use the same technology, and reenforcing the marketing goal of Disney Infinity which is to make it the "hub" of your Disney-life. My guess is, lots of Disney products will be coming with web codes should it really take off - buy that new Cars lunchbox? Stick a web code inside, and when you get home and add it you suddenly have a lunch-box accessory in-game, too. The possibilities are rather limitless of how many Disney products it could touch - "Disney Infinity Enhanced!" on even the most innocuous items.

It's also much more fail-prone - people are already buying Magic Bands off of eBay solely to unlock the feature in the game (which just takes one pass of the band, you never need it again, unless they release more stuff). Bands that are either blank, or are connected to other people. So if Disney did want to cross-reference this data, this would be the dumb way to do it - since they already can do that on their end per above without anyone ever having the Magic Band near their game console.

Personally, I have zero privacy concerns with the Magic Band. It's the same way I feel about my TiVo. It records every single press of the remote, it knows when you do a replay (that's how they were able to say that Janet Jackson's Superbowl slip-up was the most replayed moment of the game), it knows what I've been watching, it knows when I've been naughty, it knows when I've been nice...inside the capsule of what I watch on TV.

A Disney vacation is a capsule, and I couldn't care less however Disney tracks me when I am on their property (the only place the Magic Band means anything, aside from this one other Disney product, Infinity). They already tracked us 8 ways to Sunday - you are video recorded hundreds of times a day all over property, credit card transactions were already linked, fastpasses, etc. The list goes on. To be quite honest, the more I think about it - if they are going to do all this tracking, I almost RATHER it be this way than them trying to link up all those various data sources. At least they are getting complete/accurate data now about how many times someone uses a bathroom, or how many times they go on a certain ride or buy a certain food product. At least this way they are able to make informed choices instead of all the guess-work in using all the previous tracking methods in tandem.

I think the privacy concerns are really taking away from the real issue - the fact that the entire system is a huge waste of money compared to what Universal is getting for the same kinda dough as far as guest experience.

"What was your favorite part of your vacation, Sally?"

UNIVERSAL ANSWER
"Well, we went to Hogwarts and then took the magic train to Gringotts, and then met Lisa Simpson in Springfield and went on her ride and then we went on an adventure with the Transformers!"

DISNEY ANSWER
"It was so neat when we got this pretty bracelet - LOOK IT'S PINK! It let us through the gate of the park, and then when we stopped for sodas Daddy just waved his and and didn't have to take his wallet out! Oh and we got our Fastpasses to Splash Mountain way months before...too bad that day it was kinda rainy so people weren't on it anyway so we didn't even end up needing the Fastpass anyway."

That's the real concern here - not the remote possibility that Disney will serve us targeted advertising based on products we already have purchased (which, to be honest, again, since they are gonna give me ads anyway - yeah, I'd rather get ads related to what I am interested in, and not feminine hygiene products or hair removal systems).

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

I somehow managed to catch up on this thread.

Tim, WDW1974, Lee, Parentsof4, PhotoDave, Dxer, thank you for the informative reads.

It's way past my bedtime, but this has been burning a hole in my stomach all evening. If Universal acquires LOTR (wow. Like, omg, wow. I can't stop thinking of ways to bring this to life. It's mind blowing) where would they put it and would it be based more on the movies or the books?


Also, thank you Steve for that last post. I hope it holds and people take notice.

 

[AEfx]

It's way past my bedtime, but this has been burning a hole in my stomach all evening. If Universal acquires LOTR (wow. Like, omg, wow. I can't stop thinking of ways to bring this to life. It's mind blowing) where would they put it and would it be based more on the movies or the books?

I have no idea (and look forward to an expert answer) but I'm pretty sure it would be the films and not the books.

As to where? Where ever they want to, baby! LOL. Actually, I am in no way familiar with where there are existing build-out spots at Universal, but I think they have a bit more land than we may think based on things like the removal of Jaws. I believe that was done because it was the best location, and that ride was a huge maintenance nightmare and high-cost to keep up (just the propane alone was apparently astronomical). I also have an inkling that Universal may go on a buying spree at some point, akin to what Disneyland eventually did, buying out key properties in the area.

But again - no idea - and look forward to the experts weighing in.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's a "vacation club". It is not a traditional timeshare. With the DVC you are leasing the time for a specified period (i.e. 40+ years) and then it ends. You own no real estate interest. Once the contract expires it is done and you own nothing.


Your "deed" is solely dependent upon your contract with Disney. Your "deed" can (and will) expire according to the terms of the Disney contract. You have no real estate interest.

Let me explain this another way. You most likely have heard the term "fee simple title". If you posses fee simple title of something then you own it. The definition of fee simple is an estate of indefinite duration. With the DVC you don't own any real property. You're leasing a very expensive future time block in a vacation club.

As I mentioned before, shortly after the DVC first started selling memberships (please remember it's a club) some members were worried because they didn't get a deed with their purchase as did conventional timeshare owners. Disney fixed that in a flash and got the county to issue and record DVC deeds. You still have no fee simple title. You have a leasehold and it has a limited duration. Traditional conventional timeshares are not of limited duration.

I'm not disagreeing with any of this, but none of it is remotely relevant to the original point. I missed the post were anyone tried to claim that you owned anything once the contract expires. The original poster made the statement that since your interest expires you were exempt from timeshare law. That is not true. Simple misstatement. Nobody tried to claim that DVC was anything different than what it is.

 

[sweetpee_1993]

I remember getting the microwave. Of all the tech stuff, we got one first. My dad was a businessman, someone threw it in as a kickback. The neighbors came over to see it. My mom demonstrated melting cheese on bread many times. People we didn't even know very well came to see it. It was a big deal, lol.

Technology has done some great things for medicine and the military. It has given us some very cool doodads, too. I love my iPhone.

But a billion dollars for wristbands? No way. It's not a smart business move, spending that much money on things that aren't needed. They needed Internet in the rooms. They need wifi in the parks. That is stuff people want. They didn't need the rest of this.

Something is up here. I don't think it's dumb business or simply kickbacks. I don't know WHAT the deal IS, but something's up. I doubt we will ever know what it was.

I remember our first microwave, too. Life altering. Loved your description of it.

Where you ended is exactly where my brain goes. I don't trust this. I have no confidence in this. The more I hear & read, the worse the dreadful feeling gets. My husband even asked me to stop reading all the tech stuff because the more he hears about it the more distrustful he feels w/Disney. It aggravates him. I can honestly say that all this new direction is truly pushing us away. We have no confidence in exactly what Disney is doing or what their motives are. Well, other than to separate us from as much money as possible. Thieves do that. Swindlers do that. Its hard to find any warm-n-fuzzy in that.

 

[PeterAlt]

This was supposed to be Iget's thing. He was supposed to user in this new of a technologically forward Disney that would change how entertainment content is distributed. But instead Disney has again had to follow. Iger seems like the guy who is amazed by his iPhone but needs a cadre of Geniuses to do the most basic tasks on it.

And this guy is on Apple's BOD... Yikes (for Apple)!

 

[PeterAlt]

I have a new opinion...

Let them fail!

Because if they fail, who's fault would it be? The executives. If the BOD is unwilling to make drastic changes, before long, corporate sharks will be on the offensive, ready to devour the company and force things to change. Hopefully, the successful shark will be Comcast...

 

[ParentsOf4]

NextGen's massive budget overrun shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's managed large projects. Budget estimates are based on previous experience; "This new project is similar to this other project we did in the past and that project cost X."

At its heart, NextGen is a massive infrastructure upgrade of the entire WDW network. Disney is trying to integrate together all of its disjointed systems that were added piecemeal into one all-encompassing "Skynet", controlling all aspects of WDW. It's a massive undertaking and unlike anything they've tried in the past. Of course, they are going to come up with a budget that's more guess than anything else.

The problem with a big budget is that starting with a really big number tends to kill the project before it's ever launched. Even if the team manages to come up with an estimate that has some basis in reality, inevitably those higher up the food chain randomly lop off numbers.

The team comes up with a budget of $2B. The team's head says, "That's too much, let's cut 20%." The budget gets sent upwards for review and the senior VP says, "$1.6B is too much, we can do better, let's cut 20% and make it $1.3B." Now the segment head has a look and says, "Can't you do better? Try for $1.1B." Finally the CEO gets involved and says, "Great, sounds like a wonderful idea, however, I have confidence in you and your team; I know you can do better, let's bring it in under $1.0B." Everyone in the room nervously plays with something in front them because to actually stand up and declare "the emperor has no clothes" is effectively to write your own resignation letter.

Disney will continue to throw money at NextGen no matter how bad it gets because CEO Bob Iger owns it. In Wall Street's eyes, NextGen has become Iger's project. Wall Street repeatedly has asked Iger about it and Iger repeatedly has defended it. The following exchange from the Q2 FY13 earnings call is typical:

Q: "Bob, if you could talk about the timing of the rollout of My Magic Plus. Is there any way to give us a sense of the potential impact from that initiative? It's not the easiest thing for us to model."

This is polite Wall Street code for "We don't see how this thing will ever make money."

A: "In terms of what we can expect from it return-wise, you're right; it's somewhat -- although we've modeled it -- it's somewhat difficult to be specific about. You can expect that it will create a better experience, and with that we believe people will spend more time at our parks and ultimately deliver more business per guest."

This is Iger's polite way of providing a BS smoke-and-mirrors answer. What are you saying Bob, that up till now, every other project you've done was to create a worse experience? (I guess with all the quality cuts we've seen at WDW, the answer to that is "yes".)

Forget about what's actually going on with NextGen testing. From a cost-benefit perspective, the wheels already have fallen off the NextGen cart.

 

[GoofGoof]

I have a new opinion...

Let them fail!

Because if they fail, who's fault would it be? The executives. If the BOD is unwilling to make drastic changes, before long, corporate sharks will be on the offensive, ready to devour the company and force things to change. Hopefully, the successful shark will be Comcast...

That ship has sailed. There was an FCC rule that you couldn't own 2 network tv stations in the same market, but so much has changed in the last few years that I'm not even sure that's still on the books. Even if its not I doubt a merger would go through that would allow 1 company to control 2 of the 4 major networks. They would have to spin off one of the networks and a bunch of cable channels and even then it still may not fly.

 

[Longhairbear]

I'm just so glad all this bull crap hasn't gone to Disneyland yet. I think I need a Mickey Ice Cream bar, and then walk over to see World of Color. And then walk on to Little Mermaid, there is never a line, even after WOC let's out, and everyone gets in line for Little Mermaid, it eats crowds like no other. I think we need to drive to Anahiem today.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm just so glad all this bull crap hasn't gone to Disneyland yet. I think I need a Mickey Ice Cream bar, and then walk over to see World of Color. And then walk on to Little Mermaid, there is never a line, even after WOC let's out, and everyone gets in line for Little Mermaid, it eats crowds like no other. I think we need to drive to Anahiem today.

Don't count your chickens yet. Easier to spread a few billion over 6 parks...