Universal Epic Universe (South Expansion Complex) - Opens 2025

[UNCgolf]

Think you can expand on your numbers a bit? (Love this conversation, just trying to understand your logic a bit more.)

You're suggesting in 2026 (first full year of Epic), USF will see a 21% drop in attendance, IOA will see a 14% decrease, and UOR overall will experience a 31% attendance increase due to Epic compared to 2022? *Used 2022 as that is the last TEA data, and is closely aligned to what the resort was experiencing pre-Covid.

Not saying your wrong to suggest a decline in attendance, but 21% decrease in attendance at a single park is pretty wild, something Comcast would not take likely.

Don't get me wrong, I find USF undesirable at times... but it's got special events and Diagon Alley to support it. Just can't wrap my head around such a significant drop.

21% might be a little high, but as I said above, EPCOT and Disney-MGM both experienced 15% or so drops (MGM a bit more than EPCOT) from their pre-Animal Kingdom attendance to Animal Kingdom's first full year of operation.

 

[rd805]

I think social media being what it is these days, and the ease of high quality promo videos on Instagram, Tiktok, etc -- EU will hit the ground running. It's up to Universal to keep the other 2 parks going, and I'm anxiously awaiting the next phases to their vacant spaces.

I think they did a great job with the IP infused new Dreamworks zone. It's not for "me" (a 34 year old male without young children)- but it's going to be popular for a lot of families. I will still love to explore and will definitely do meet and greets (at least the first time), because Universal always has shorter lines for those characters lol.

 

[BrianLo]

Think you can expand on your numbers a bit? (Love this conversation, just trying to understand your logic a bit more.)

You're suggesting in 2026 (first full year of Epic), USF will see a 21% drop in attendance, IOA will see a 14% decrease, and UOR overall will experience a 31% attendance increase due to Epic compared to 2022? *Used 2022 as that is the last TEA data, and is closely aligned to what the resort was experiencing pre-Covid.

Not saying your wrong to suggest a decline in attendance, but 21% decrease in attendance at a single park is pretty wild, something Comcast would not take likely.

Don't get me wrong, I find USF undesirable at times... but it's got special events and Diagon Alley to support it. Just can't wrap my head around such a significant drop.

Disney Parks Annual Attendance History

I've been accumulating attendance data on the Disney Parks and many others for a long time now and over the last few days, I finally closed a couple of data gaps on a few parks back into the 70's and 60's. Now that I was able to fill in those data gaps I thought I would share for those...

forums.wdwmagic.com

This actually is a nicely combed thread of data. You can visually see how the parks function.

I hope I’m wrong (I won’t be completely wrong), but this is the nature of capital expenditures. One does not realize the full outlay in year one, it takes time to pay off. If it does we’re going to see a golden age of theme park investing. Comcast will basically rush a fourth gate. Why wouldn’t they when they could reach their attendance demands and profitability day zero of an investment?

Tokyo Disneyland essentially never fully recovered its attendance. Though in terms of good enough, that occurred in 2013.

For the record I’m saying a 20% drop (or whatever) at USF would actually be a ‘success’. I’m actually trying to get ahead of this one when the attendance has a normal adjustment and the Disney loyalists crow about what a mistake it was.

 

[BrianLo]

21% might be a little high, but as I said above, EPCOT and Disney-MGM both experienced 15% or so drops (MGM a bit more than EPCOT) from their pre-Animal Kingdom attendance to Animal Kingdom's first full year of operation.

You are right. I might be a bit bold there. Epic may not hit those heights and USF/IOA might drop more slightly.

I think what’s unprecedented potentially in this equation is that the newest park actually seems dramatically better than another. TDS and Epcot stand out as fantastic parks (maybe even better than Epic in some ways), but their castle equivalents were on a much more solid foundation that USF. So I’m sort of adjusting for Epic over-indexing.

But in reality they all may be somewhere in the 9+ million range.

I’m also somewhat adjusting to the expectation that 2023 numbers are not as strong.

 

[Andrew25]

Disney Parks Annual Attendance History

I've been accumulating attendance data on the Disney Parks and many others for a long time now and over the last few days, I finally closed a couple of data gaps on a few parks back into the 70's and 60's. Now that I was able to fill in those data gaps I thought I would share for those...

forums.wdwmagic.com

This actually is a nicely combed thread of data. You can visually see how the parks function.

I hope I’m wrong (I won’t be completely wrong), but this is the nature of capital expenditures. One does not realize the full outlay in year one, it takes time to pay off. If it does we’re going to see a golden age of theme park investing. Comcast will basically rush a fourth gate. Why wouldn’t they when they could reach their attendance demands and profitability day zero of an investment?

Tokyo Disneyland essentially never fully recovered its attendance. Though in terms of good enough, that occurred in 2013.

For the record I’m saying a 20% drop (or whatever) at USF would actually be a ‘success’. I’m actually trying to get ahead of this one when the attendance has a normal adjustment and the Disney loyalists crow about what a mistake it was.

2023 is certainly a down year, but I also believe that Diagon/Hogwarts Express is a massive ticket seller that would at least convince folks to include USF as part of their visit with how easy it is to add to your trip.

I know us fans like to complain about USF, but it has a lot going for it, especially in the next year:

• Parade
• Nighttime Show
• DreamWorks (minor addition, but should convince families to visit more often instead of outright ignoring)
• Special Events (Mardi Gras, Holidays, HHN)

IOA/USF saw a downturn of 12% going into 2010 with Hogsmeade addition.

• 2023 - placed DAK/EP/MK numbers closer to their early 2010s attendance, excluding DHS thanks to park changes. UOR attendance has skyrocketed thanks to onsite resorts, so placed it closer to their 2017/2018 numbers.
• 2024 - assumed MK flat due to Tiana, assumed 8% decline at all the other parks. UOR sees biggest decline at 12%.*
• 2025 - assumed WDW to benefit a bit, but not too much with no major additions known. UOR sees 7% increase overall pending ticketing structure behind Epic.
• 2026 (ignore) - placed USF/IOA closer to their 2018 numbers, while putting WDW at their 2019 number just to see what they need to do to make up over the next 2-3 years.

*UOR has been nonstop busy since the start of the year, so I'm skeptical of a 12% decline in 2024, especially with this summer's additions.

SeaWorld has been in a decline, and I'd imagine Epic will do more damage. Only way I see SWO getting out of their funk is if that onsite hotel gets expedited soon.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Epic's success won't be judged by Universal in dry attendance numbers alone, but mostly if it extends the length of on property stays.

 

[Andrew25]

Epic's success won't be judged by Universal in dry attendance numbers alone, but mostly if it extends the length of on property stays.

Yes, which is why I believe USF/IOA will benefit from Epic and not see a dramatic attendance decline. Universal cares more about occupancy rates than in-park attendance at this point. They'll do whatever it takes to convince folks to visit longer/more of their parks with discounts/packages.

 

[trr1]

https://twitter.com/bioreconstruct
bioreconstruct
@bioreconstruct

Aerial photo of Helios Grand Hotel and Celestial Park in Epic Universe

Aerial overview of Celestial Park areas near Super Nintendo World in Epic Universe.

Aerial overview of Super Nintendo World in Epic Universe.

Aerial photo of the large dome at top of Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe. It is being covered in an underlayment for the themed roof.

Aerial overview of Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe. A small dome will soon be raised to the tower roof. Work is underway on roads.

Aerial photo of Luna Overlook and the portal of Epic Universe. First steel in place for the themed Chronos tower of the portal.

Aerial photo of two domes at top of Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe. The smaller dome was recently raised, then capped. The large dome is being covered in an underlayment.

An aerial photo of Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe. A small dome was recently raised. Another small dome is staged at ground level.

Aerial look at construction of Chronos, the overall portal of Epic Universe. Just beyond is Luna Overlook, at top of a cascading water feature.1 Supports for arched features of the park entrance.2 Recently added concrete forms.

Aerial look across Epic Universe. From Dark Universe to Starfall Racers.

 

[trr1]

bioreconstruct
@bioreconstruct

Aerial overview of pool construction at Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe.

Aerial photo of test dummies riding a Starfall Racers train in Epic Universe. The dummies have capes and hoods.

Aerial photo of work in progress for roads and the transportation plaza of Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe.

Aerial photo of the Untrainable Dragon theater and the entrance plazas of Epic Universe.

Aerial photo of a small dome staged at base of Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe. The dome cap is at bottom left.

Aerial photo of rock work near the portal of Epic Universe.

Aerial overview of the arrival side of Helios Grand Hotel in Epic Universe. Located between The Wizarding World of Harry Potter at left, and Dark Universe at right.Extended queue construction for Ministry of Magic can be seen at right of the show buildings.

Aerial look at construction of Chronos, the overall portal of Epic Universe. At top right is Luna Overlook and a cascading water feature.

Aerial overview of front areas of Epic Universe. Portal of the park is the half circle of concrete, with steel rising on top for the themed Chronos tower. Water will cascade through Celestial Park, starting at Luna Overlook at center.

Aerial overview of the entrance plazas of Epic Universe. At center is a recently cast colorful concrete pattern.

 

[trr1]

bioreconstruct
@bioreconstruct

Aerial overview of the entrance plazas of Epic Universe.

At center of this aerial is a Starfall Racers train descending a Top Hat. Just after launch out of the station, at Epic Universe.(Only one train spotted in the flight today.)

Aerial photo of the windmill tower above The Burning Blade Tavern in Dark Universe.

Aerial photo of The Burning Blade Tavern area in Dark Universe. Dirt is being formed into a hill at top left, near the extended queue of the featured attraction.

Aerial photo of switchback construction in the extended queue of the featured attraction in Dark Universe.

Aerial overview of the extended queue of the Dark Universe featured attraction. Dirt is being shaped into a hill, and will likely be landscaped like at left.

Aerial photos of a service building near Dark Universe.

Aerial look at the manor construction in Dark Universe.

Aerial photo of manor construction in Dark Universe.

 

[trr1]

https://twitter.com/bioreconstruct
bioreconstruct
@bioreconstruct

Aerial photo of the entrance gateway and ramp of the manor in Dark Universe. In the shadow of the trees is a metal fence.

Aerial photo of current work at the manor in Dark Universe. Arrow at a metal decoration. The decoration will eventually go around the entire roof line.

Aerial photo of areas of Dark Universe near the Curse of the Werewolf roller coaster. Permanent fence is along track at left. Temporary fence along track at right.

Arrow in this aerial at a gateway in the queue of the Curse of the Werewolf roller coaster.

Aerial photo of the tree-filled queue of The Curse of the Werewolf roller coaster.

Aerial photo of current work in the village at Dark Universe.

Aerial photo of the portal to Dark Universe.

Aerial overview of Dark Universe.

Aerial photo of current theming of a well in the Dark Universe village.

Aerial look at the village in Dark Universe. At right is current theming of a well.

 

[trr1]

bioreconstruct
@bioreconstruct

Aerial photo of the front of the manor in Dark Universe.

Aerial overview of Super Nintendo World in Epic Universe.

Aerial look at landscaping so far at the Super Nintendo World portal.

Aerial overview of Celestial Park areas near Super Nintendo World in Epic Universe.

Aerial look at the Super Nintendo World portal. An escalator will bring guests up to Peach's Castle.

Aerial overview of Super Mario Land in Super Nintendo World.

Aerial overview of the Bowser's Fortress area of Super Nintendo World.Cylinder at ground level will be Toadstool Cafe.

Aerial photo of a Piranha Plant and a Conkdor near Yoshi's Adventure in Super Nintendo World.

 

[luv house of the mouse]

Silly question what are they going to do to the big green wall that faces into the park? Will it be themed because that isn't fade away blue.

 

[JoeCamel]

Silly question what are they going to do to the big green wall that faces into the park? Will it be themed because that isn't fade away blue.

Probably the same as they did on Hagrid with background painting and landscape in front of it. Not perfect but.....

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Silly question what are they going to do to the big green wall that faces into the park? Will it be themed because that isn't fade away blue.

I imagine it will end up looking like this...

And I just found this...

 

[DCBaker]

 

[bwr827]

What kind of queue system are we expecting at Epic? All virtual like Volcano Bay? A mix of virtual and standby? Anyone think there will be express pass available in Epic’s first year?

I think I heard that when Hagrid’s opened, lines were up to 8 hours long? And Slinky Dog lines were 5 hours long when Toy Story Land opened?

My kids and I are excited about this park and hope to visit in its first year. But not if it means getting only two rides done per day while killing my feet standing in line.

 

[lazyboy97o]

What kind of queue system are we expecting at Epic? All virtual like Volcano Bay? A mix of virtual and standby? Anyone think there will be express pass available in Epic’s first year?

Just regular Standby and Express as exists in the north campus parks.

 

[Rich Brownn]

What kind of queue system are we expecting at Epic? All virtual like Volcano Bay? A mix of virtual and standby? Anyone think there will be express pass available in Epic’s first year?

I think I heard that when Hagrid’s opened, lines were up to 8 hours long? And Slinky Dog lines were 5 hours long when Toy Story Land opened?

My kids and I are excited about this park and hope to visit in its first year. But not if it means getting only two rides done per day while killing my feet standing in line.

Hagrids opened with only a few cars running (a problem cropped up at the last minute resulting in much reduced capacity). Hopefully that wont happen here -- i expect a fairly long Test & Adjust time (all the coasters are currently testing already) and probably a good preview period. The last thing they ever want is a repeat of USF's disastrous opening. (IOA also suffered but that was from a badly designed ad campaign). We can hope 3rd times a charm for opening a dry park for them here

 

[Andrew25]

Hagrids opened with only a few cars running (a problem cropped up at the last minute resulting in much reduced capacity). Hopefully that wont happen here -- i expect a fairly long Test & Adjust time (all the coasters are currently testing already) and probably a good preview period. The last thing they ever want is a repeat of USF's disastrous opening. (IOA also suffered but that was from a badly designed ad campaign). We can hope 3rd times a charm for opening a dry park for them here

VB also suffered issues at opening, so Universal still has that freshly ingrained into their minds lol

There's 3 new hotels, along with the current 8 hotels, that are depending on Epic's success to keep them full and occupied.

For the most part, outside of Donkey Kong, all of the other attractions will have decent capacity when operating correctly. Too early to start offering touring plans for EU... but I can guarantee that either Donkey Kong or the Sky Fly flat ride at HTTYD will need to be your first attraction based on the expected capacity of those two.