Surprise! Red Tier Now Begins Sunday; Downtown Disney Restaurants???

[TP2000]

First, I don't think he cares that much. He has faced political opposition his entire career.

Second, they've had since March 2019 (basically since he got sworn in) to get valid signatures, 6 times and almost 2 years now. It has a slim chance of making the deadline of March 2021 this time, and even if it does, it has a slim chance of even passing and getting him recalled. In the history of our state, since 1911 a recall attempt has happened 55 times against a Governor (mostly Democrat Governors I should note), and only 1 has successfully recalled, Gray Davis.

I won't go too much further on this, as this isn't the place, but I will say I will be VERY surprised if it even makes it on the ballot in November. And if it does I'll personally be upset that I had to pay for it. That's right, every one of us in California has to PAY for that recall effort if it passes, even if you don't agree. On average that is $81M that is coming out of our pockets.

Just to get this out of the way, it will come as no surprise to some folks here to learn my signature is one of the 1.4 Million and counting on the Recall Newsom petition.

But I don't actually think he'll be recalled. It only worked 20 years ago because Gray Davis was just as scripted and stale and fake as Gavin Newsom was, but Gray Davis had to go up against the super charisma celebrity Arnold Schwarzenegger.

When the recall election happens this fall, and it's looking more and more likely by the day now, there will be no super charismatic celebrity with instant name recognition on the ballot to replace Newsom with. It looks like it's coming down to two fairly tame and mild-mannered moderate Republicans (the former mayor of San Diego and a businessman), and a Democrat wildcard in this super smart Tech Billionaire from the Bay Area who has a name that's rather hard to pronounce unless you are from Sri Lanka (or you are a white Liberal who had to practice saying his name for 3 minutes just so you can pretend it just rolls automatically off your tongue because you are cool).

But without an Arnold Schwarzenegger to run against Gavin Newsom, I doubt the recall election this fall will be successful in the short term. Where it will be successful is in the long term, where it will considerably dim Newsom's star among Democrats so that his chances of running for President in '24 or '28 will be slim to none.

That's really why I signed the recall petition a few months ago outside Target, not that I wouldn't like Newsom replaced by someone who just speaks normally instead of talking like a middle manager from HR in corporate psychobabble.

 

[TP2000]

View attachment 529534

When did we go from Regional Shop At Target Order to Regional Sit In Traffic Order? Seems the joke's on Gav Gav and the Shut It Downers and the only stuff left to reopen is theme parks and entertainment venues.

Funny you mention that! I met friends for dinner last night at a nearby Vietnamese place that has returned to Indoor Dining. It was refreshing to be served by a charming waitress, and sit indoors in a climate-controlled dining room on a chilly night and eat our meals like civilized humans.

But we all commented that it seems in the last week that traffic and business has picked up everywhere. The freeways, the big box stores, restaurants opening their dining rooms, etc., etc.

I think it's good news, especially for places like the family run Vietnamese restaurant we ate at. But it also shows how SoCal is no longer obeying the dictates from Sacramento 400 miles away.

 

[TP2000]

CNBC had a video on their YouTube channel that was all about the California flight. It was naturally very pro-business considering the source, and thus, anti-Democrat-run California.

However, it did mention a downside to moving out: All the usual places that those who are fleeing are going to aren't the paradise they thought it would be. The usual landing spots are having housing issues with so many people moving in. A house on the market will immediately get eight bids. This is causing locals to not have such warm feelings about the Cali immigrants.

But, the irony is one of the reasons to leave CA is the housing market... and they are causing the same problem elsewhere.

It was like when my family moved out of NJ claiming it was too congested. And when I visit them in the Jacksonville and Tampa area, what do I see? Lots and lots of congestion.

You must be mistaken. There is no flight from California. CNBC, run by NBC executives, is Trump propaganda. And if anyone is actually moving out of California, it's only white people who are center-right in their thinking, and we don't need them or want them. Of course, it's inherently bigoted to derisively note the color of their skin, but since they are white it's perfectly okay to do that. Good riddance to bad rubbish!

Or so the comments went here from several notable commenters a couple months ago when I tried to make the same point that there is a noticeable flight of people moving out of California, far outweighing the number of people from other states trying to move in.

But I'm glad that now that simple demographic fact, known for six months by every moving company in the state, is also now acknowledged by others here. California is losing people. Law-abiding, tax-paying, good people.

 

[TP2000]

Well, I didn’t make it up, but Disney already announced they were opening before. Obviously, CA has no problem shutting everything back down if they decide they need to. But Disney is making budgetary plans to be ready for summer.

I think that's a wise budgetary plan to have. Budgetary being the key word.

There's no chance Disneyland is opening this spring. It's already February, and not a peep out of our betters from Sacramento about theme parks. Summer is a good bet, and if it gets pushed to Fall you haven't wasted too much money.

Of course, if the last 30 days has taught us anything, after a year where we learned so much, is that Governor Newsom and his Sacramento pals can make a 180 degree turn at a moments notice. There was no Science & Data behind keeping restaurants closed, but they kept them closed until suddenly they decided not to.

There was no Science & Data behind keeping Disneyland closed while Hobby Lobby and Nordstrom stayed open, but a week from now Newsom could pretend that his algorithm he uses to predict the future was updated with new software and Disneyland may now reopen effective immediately.

There's no predicting what may happen a week from now, or what sudden reversal of policy Sacramento may decide to enact immediately. But from a purely logistical and operational capacity, it will take at least a few months to restart and retrain and restock and restaff the Disneyland Resort after a full year of closure. I don't think Governor Newsom understands that, but then he doesn't even understand how a strip mall nail salon works either.

 

[davis_unoxx]

I think that's a wise budgetary plan to have. Budgetary being the key word.

There's no chance Disneyland is opening this spring. It's already February, and not a peep out of our betters from Sacramento about theme parks. Summer is a good bet, and if it gets pushed to Fall you haven't wasted too much money.

Of course, if the last 30 days has taught us anything, after a year where we learned so much, is that Governor Newsom and his Sacramento pals can make a 180 degree turn at a moments notice. There was no Science & Data behind keeping restaurants closed, but they kept them closed until suddenly they decided not to.

There was no Science & Data behind keeping Disneyland closed while Hobby Lobby and Nordstrom stayed open, but a week from now Newsom could pretend that his algorithm he uses to predict the future was updated with new software and Disneyland may now reopen effective immediately.

There's no predicting what may happen a week from now, or what sudden reversal of policy Sacramento may decide to enact immediately. But from a purely logistical and operational capacity, it will take at least a few months to restart and retrain and restock and restaff the Disneyland Resort after a full year of closure. I don't think Governor Newsom understands that, but then he doesn't even understand how a strip mall nail salon works either.

I'm betting money that as soon as a week we going to hear them lift restrictions on Disneyland for the future, I think it going to open sooner than people realize. Half the reason is I think Newsom wants to save himself after a lot of people calling him a dictator and such. Also don't you guys think we ought to have a meetup at Earl of Sandwich? Aka the only restaurant in Downtown Disney that doesn't tell you to "put on a mask when you're not actively eating."

 

[J2B]

Most people aren’t that rational.

He’d probably just grow a mustache and you’d have Gov. Navin Gewsom.

I just spit my healthy morning oats all over my iMac!!!

 

[el_super]

I'm betting money that as soon as a week we going to hear them lift restrictions on Disneyland for the future, I think it going to open sooner than people realize.

I don't think they're going to lift the restrictions. Considering that Newsom is getting flak now from some of his most ardent supporters for pushing to reopen things too quickly, there is still broad community support for public health restrictions.

The assembly bill introduced by the state reps that are responsible for the area around Disneyland and Magic Mountain are doing their duty to protect the interest of their constituents and their committee assignments, but that doesn't mean it has broad support of the legislature. At the rate we are currently going, moving from the yellow tier to the orange tier may only buy Disneyland a couple extra weeks.

Also don't you guys think we ought to have a meetup at Earl of Sandwich?

If you actually want Disneyland to reopen sooner, stay home.

 

[Californian Elitist]

View attachment 529534

When did we go from Regional Shop At Target Order to Regional Sit In Traffic Order? Seems the joke's on Gav Gav and the Shut It Downers and the only stuff left to reopen is theme parks and entertainment venues.

It’s the taking things out of context for me. Because what?

 

[cmwade77]

True but he still holds a 52% approval rating and that's good enough.

Actually that was in December, currently down to around 35% as of a couple weeks ago.

 

[Travel Junkie]

Without reading the full bill, on the surface this sounds reasonable and probably where all theme parks should have been.

California Legislators Introducing Bill To Allow Disneyland, Other Large Theme Parks To Reopen Earlier Than Gavin Newsom’s Plan Allows

Two California Assembly Members introduce a bill that will allow large theme parks to reopen earlier than Gov. Gavin Newsom's plan dictates.

deadline.com

 

[el_super]

Actually that was in December, currently down to around 35% as of a couple weeks ago.

Patently false:

In our January survey, Governor Newsom’s approval rating among California likely voters is at 52%, compared to 49% in January 2020 and 43% in January 2019. His approval rating over time hovers around 50%—it surpassed 60% twice after COVID-19 struck.​

​

It takes a majority vote to remove the governor. Right now, 43% disapprove of Gavin Newsom. For perspective, seven in ten likely voters disapproved of Gray Davis (72% February 2003; 75% June 2003; 72% July 2003; 72% August 2003; 71% September 2003) before 55% voted to remove him in October 2003.​

​

What Approval Ratings Say about Recalling Governor Newsom - Public Policy Institute of California

Governor Newsom could potentially face a recall election this year. But PPIC’s new statewide survey suggests that California voters currently are unlikely to remove him from office.

www.ppic.org

Please do not post misinformation.

​

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

I think that's a wise budgetary plan to have. Budgetary being the key word.

There's no chance Disneyland is opening this spring. It's already February, and not a peep out of our betters from Sacramento about theme parks. Summer is a good bet, and if it gets pushed to Fall you haven't wasted too much money.

Of course, if the last 30 days has taught us anything, after a year where we learned so much, is that Governor Newsom and his Sacramento pals can make a 180 degree turn at a moments notice. There was no Science & Data behind keeping restaurants closed, but they kept them closed until suddenly they decided not to.

There was no Science & Data behind keeping Disneyland closed while Hobby Lobby and Nordstrom stayed open, but a week from now Newsom could pretend that his algorithm he uses to predict the future was updated with new software and Disneyland may now reopen effective immediately.

There's no predicting what may happen a week from now, or what sudden reversal of policy Sacramento may decide to enact immediately. But from a purely logistical and operational capacity, it will take at least a few months to restart and retrain and restock and restaff the Disneyland Resort after a full year of closure. I don't think Governor Newsom understands that, but then he doesn't even understand how a strip mall nail salon works either.

All the most sanitary establishments were ordered to close, making the orders all the more baffling. Science and Data!

 

[mickEblu]

Sorry but isn’t the Orange tier also ridiculously restrictive? Less than 3.9 cases a day per 100k? The only way I see Disneyland opening this summer is if this whole tier system gets thrown out or revised considerably.

 

[mickEblu]

Wont there be at least 4 new daily COVID cases per 100k until the end of time? Are there ever less than that many new daily cases for the flu or any other common virus we deal with?

 

[lazyboy97o]

Wont there be at least 4 new daily COVID cases per 100k until the end of time? Are there ever less than that many new daily cases for the flu or any other common virus we deal with?

There are places that have accomplished what is supposedly impossible.

 

[mickEblu]

There are places that have accomplished what is supposedly impossible.

Any big cities? And if so, how long have they stayed in the Orange tier? Will Disneyland have to close every time the county hits 4 new daily cases?

 

[el_super]

Any big cities? And if so, how long have they stayed in the Orange tier? Will Disneyland have to close every time the county hits 4 new daily cases?

It's 4 per 100,000. For Orange County, that's an average of 128 people, per day. So in theory, Orange Country could see over 800 people test positive for Corona Virus a week, and still qualify to have Disneyland open.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Any big cities? And if so, how long have they stayed in the Orange tier? Will Disneyland have to close every time the county hits 4 new daily cases?

Yes. Japan is roughly the size of California with three times as many people. They’re currently reporting about 2 cases per 100,000. Their peak of about 8,000 daily works out to about 6.5 / 100,000.

The Asia-Pacific region has other places with similar if not even better success. Yes there are islands but there is far greater density of people. People here also keep claiming that the problem is spread within homes, not travel, meaning the ability of countries to close their borders is not really relevant. California’s problem isn’t people crossing the state line.

 

[BuzzedPotatoHead89]

The assembly bill introduced by the state reps that are responsible for the area around Disneyland and Magic Mountain are doing their duty to protect the interest of their constituents and their committee assignments, but that doesn't mean it has broad support of the legislature. At the rate we are currently going, moving from the yellow tier to the orange tier may only buy Disneyland a couple extra weeks.


If you actually want Disneyland to reopen sooner, stay home.

Even with adjustments keeping case rates at 1 per 100,000 opens a huge risk for theme park operators. Orange tier makes the most logical sense since there is a reasonable likelihood of fluctuation within yellow.

One significant outbreak in a critical industry sector could push a county from yellow to orange. The thought of opening the park to then have to close again would represent a substantial rate of abrasion for the industry.

As a result unless there is a more nuanced, realistic and agile approach to the tiering implementation from the state, the prudent thing to do for theme park operators may be to forestall opening altogether (for all of 2021) even if a county hits “yellow”, unless there is some level of assurance that business operations can be grandfathered in the event of a seasonal spike.

 

[mickEblu]

Yes. Japan is roughly the size of California with three times as many people. They’re currently reporting about 2 cases per 100,000. Their peak of about 8,000 daily works out to about 6.5 / 100,000.

The Asia-Pacific region has other places with similar if not even better success. Yes there are islands but there is far greater density of people. People here also keep claiming that the problem is spread within homes, not travel, meaning the ability of countries to close their borders is not really relevant. California’s problem isn’t people crossing the state line.

If this is true that is pretty remarkable but 2 cases is still 2 cases (per 100k) away from Disneyland having to shut down. How can a business like Disneyland operate in that way?