Princess and the frog a failure?

[xdan0920]

It's "hard facts" time folks.

Through this past weekend it made about 64 million dollars. It has one more weekend in the holiday season to post significant numbers. We are realistically looking at a domestic take of 80 to 90 million. And 90 million is optimistic at this point.

There is no way that Disney is happy in any way with the box office. No way.

Is it a financial failure? Honestly it will all depend on the overseas box office. Many films make 2-3 times their domestic take oversease. But will a film as "American" as a tale that takes place in turn of the century New Orleans play well in Japan? I haven't got a clue and neither has Disney at this point. Disney pulled out all the stops in its marketing campaign........and really leveraged every opportunity to sell the film. It didn't work.

From a quality standpoint, it is a well made movie. Classic or not really depends on your point of view. It rated 83% on Rotton Tomatoes fresh meter. It felt rushed to me, and lacked a real emotional punch, but my family liked it. We all liked Avatar and Blind Side much more in the current crop of competitors. Bolt and Up as well earlier in the season. The hook for us was the 2-D revival and the fact that it's the first real Disney musical in awhile.

But it's NOT going to cover it's marketing and production costs without doing about 250 million in world wide box office. And at the end of the day, that is how the studio going to evaluate its success. We can all debate a lot of things, but if this thing stalls at 150M in world wide box office, we are going to see a heck of a lot of spin come out of Disney, and probably a really hard look at future 2-D features. And if the next one falls flat the situation is going to get worse.

If Cars (Not the biggest producing Pixar feature by any means) had stalled at 150M in world wide box office, we would NOT be seeing a sequel in production, no matter how many little race cars it sold. But Cars did almost 500 million world wide, putting it in the black, and all the extra stuff was "gravy on the goose".

The thing that really puts cash in the piggy bank for these movies is repeat business. I saw Little Mermaid 3 times in the theater. I saw Beauty and the Beast 4 times and again when it went to IMAX. I am a total geek for a movie that gets into my heart. I bet P&TF is doing virtually zero repeat business right now. I will probably buy the DVD when it comes out, but that's it. I don't see raving reviews by fans on the internet. It's a solid, well made, above average box office performer that got stomped by the competition.

That's NOT what Disney needed. It needed a Lion King. It got an Oliver and Company.

Excellent take.

This movie has generated zero fan excitement. People all seem to like the film, but I have yet to have someone tell me, I have to go see this. When UP came out it was very exciting, everyone I know was seeing it and recommending it. There is talk of a best picture nod. PatF, nothing, it seems to me, an average movie bundled in pixie dust. And the general public is not biting.

However, this is not a signal that people need to see CGI. Alladin, Lion King, Little mermaid, these movies are the most rewatchable movies of all time. I defy you to find someone who doesn't like the Lion King. I defy you to find someone who cares thats its classic animation and not cgi.

PatF does not mean the end of Classical Animation. It is just not the relaunch we had all hoped for.

 

[jt04]

They always implied that this move back to hand drawn was not on the same scale as Lion King or Little Mermaid, hence the modest budget by today's standards. They have always downplayed it's potential as a break out blockbuster. That said, though I am sure they hoped it would have made a bit more by now, there is absolutely no way it can be considered a failure in any respect. They wanted it to succeed and it will. Had they budgeted a lot more, that may have been in doubt right now. They accomplished exactly what they hoped to accomplish. A return to hand drawn animation on a permanent basis because this movie will be profitable.

PS Alvin will be lost in history, PatF will not be. It's got legs.

Ahem.

Excellent take.

This movie has generated zero fan excitement. People all seem to like the film, but I have yet to have someone tell me, I have to go see this. When UP came out it was very exciting, everyone I know was seeing it and recommending it. There is talk of a best picture nod. PatF, nothing, it seems to me, an average movie bundled in pixie dust. And the general public is not biting.

However, this is not a signal that people need to see CGI. Alladin, Lion King, Little mermaid, these movies are the most rewatchable movies of all time. I defy you to find someone who doesn't like the Lion King. I defy you to find someone who cares thats its classic animation and not cgi.

PatF does not mean the end of Classical Animation. It is just not the relaunch we had all hoped for.

PatF had a slight drop on monday. Every other movie in wide release dropped well into the double digits as a percentage.

Again, Disney downplayed it's breakout potential before release. I said it once and I'll say it again, this movie will have a long run in many many ways. It's got legs.

Oh and here is the proof...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-12-28&p=.htm

 

[Disneyfanman]

I hope you are right.

They averaged 888 per screen, which is pretty low compared to the competition out equal weeks. They did climb a couple of spots in the ranking which is encouraging.

I don't agree that Disney had and managed lower expectations. That's "rose colored glasses" speak. They marketed the heck out of it. They were counting on a building appetite for traditional 2-D. I'm betting that the current Box Office is a MAJOR Disappointment for Disney. Major major major.

Using Box Office Mojo:

Home on the Range: 50 Domestic, 105 World Wide.
Mulan: 121 Domestic, 304 Total.
Treasure Planet: 38 Domestic, 110 Total.
Atlantis: 84 Domestic, 186 World Wide.
Lilo and Stitch: 146 Domestic, 273 World wide.

It's probably going to cap at 90 M Domestic. That puts it in the category of Atlantis. And that wasn't a princess movie or a musical or really anything special (although I liked the movie).

So in my mind, it's done. It will be lucky to cover its production and marketing cost. The only question is what will Disney's response be. I am betting that they continue with their re-start of 2-D.

 

[dizpins14]

The only reason Princess and the Frog had such a small percentage drop from Sunday to Monday compared to the other films was because it did not have a high Sunday Box-Office intake. Avatar could not sustain a $28 million intake on a non holiday weekday. But Princess and the Frog can easily bring in another $3 million.

 

[FigmentJedi]

So in my mind, it's done. It will be lucky to cover its production and marketing cost. The only question is what will Disney's response be. I am betting that they continue with their re-start of 2-D.

Oh they were doing more traditional animated films regardless of how well PATF did. New Pooh movie and Snow Queen are already in the works and they'll be handdrawn.

 

[disneysroyal411]

They need to put it into 3-D 2-D, 3-D just draws in the crowds. I wanted to see up not only because it was Disney Pixar but because 3-D is awesome! I think they need to do some more Christmas Carol types of movies because I loved that movie. It was fun to watch, it was 3-D, it followed the book stunningly well for a Disney movie, because sometimes they they just don't follow. Plus it didn't completely seem fake there were parts to it that seemed real, it was nice. They should give stop motion a try to. I loved Coraline, it was chilling and funny.

 

[jt04]

I hope you are right.

They averaged 888 per screen, which is pretty low compared to the competition out equal weeks. They did climb a couple of spots in the ranking which is encouraging.

I don't agree that Disney had and managed lower expectations. That's "rose colored glasses" speak. They marketed the heck out of it. They were counting on a building appetite for traditional 2-D. I'm betting that the current Box Office is a MAJOR Disappointment for Disney. Major major major.

Using Box Office Mojo:

Home on the Range: 50 Domestic, 105 World Wide.
Mulan: 121 Domestic, 304 Total.
Treasure Planet: 38 Domestic, 110 Total.
Atlantis: 84 Domestic, 186 World Wide.
Lilo and Stitch: 146 Domestic, 273 World wide.

It's probably going to cap at 90 M Domestic. That puts it in the category of Atlantis. And that wasn't a princess movie or a musical or really anything special (although I liked the movie).

So in my mind, it's done. It will be lucky to cover its production and marketing cost. The only question is what will Disney's response be. I am betting that they continue with their re-start of 2-D.

It should be easily over 75 million by the end of the holiday break. (It made on Monday almost what it made on Saturday!) After that it really depends on word of mouth. I don't agree they have marketed the heck out of it though. I've seen relatively few commercials. And there are no large scale tie-ins with food outlets, Walmart etc. The in-park promotions were the biggest promotion it appears.

Anyway, I think it will break the 100 million dollar mark in the US. I also think it could be stong overseas. So my prediction is it will recoup all costs through it's ticket sales. DVD's sales, PPV, and merchandising will be all profit from that point to the end of time. Again, I was worried it would bomb because Disney really seemed to be quietly lowering expectations. I am not at all convinced they are that disappointed.

 

[Disneyfanman]

Oh they were doing more traditional animated films regardless of how well PATF did. New Pooh movie and Snow Queen are already in the works and they'll be handdrawn.

That's my understanding too. I guess that personally I had hoped for an absolute blockbuster. Hopefully the cooler and "strategic" heads guide 2-D animation back to it's rightful place.

 

[stitch2008]

Fail? Really? Fail?

Before we start calling this film a "fail", consider the following. The budget for the film has been said to be in $100 million range. The film has made close to $94 million so far. You may argue that the film has only made about $67 million in the United States, but to companies, the total gross is what counts. After all, we live in a global economy now. http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2009/FROGP.php

Also keep in mind that the film still hasnt opened in several markets like the UK, France, Spain, Hong Kong and Japan. Other European and Asian countries start showing the film after the first of the year. So lets wait till this is all finished before making that claim.

Here's an example. Bolt. It cost about $150 million to make. In the United States, it only made around $114 million. But add in foreign markets and you add close to $200 million. So in the end Bolt grossed nearly $314 million. Without other costs, the film made a $164 million profit.
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/BOLT.php

 

[ILLmaticS0ldier]

Fail? Really? Fail?

Before we start calling this film a "fail", consider the following. The budget for the film has been said to be in $100 million range. The film has made close to $94 million so far. You may argue that the film has only made about $67 million in the United States, but to companies, the total gross is what counts. After all, we live in a global economy now. http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2009/FROGP.php

Also keep in mind that the film still hasnt opened in several markets like the UK, France, Spain, Hong Kong and Japan. Other European and Asian countries start showing the film after the first of the year. So lets wait till this is all finished before making that claim.

Here's an example. Bolt. It cost about $150 million to make. In the United States, it only made around $114 million. But add in foreign markets and you add close to $200 million. So in the end Bolt grossed nearly $314 million. Without other costs, the film made a $164 million profit.
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/BOLT.php

Yea but is that Pixar numbers?????? they wanted pixar numbers now traditional animation is in jeapardy!!!!

 

[Disneyfanman]

Fail? Really? Fail?

Before we start calling this film a "fail", consider the following. The budget for the film has been said to be in $100 million range. The film has made close to $94 million so far. You may argue that the film has only made about $67 million in the United States, but to companies, the total gross is what counts. After all, we live in a global economy now. http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2009/FROGP.php

Also keep in mind that the film still hasnt opened in several markets like the UK, France, Spain, Hong Kong and Japan. Other European and Asian countries start showing the film after the first of the year. So lets wait till this is all finished before making that claim.

Here's an example. Bolt. It cost about $150 million to make. In the United States, it only made around $114 million. But add in foreign markets and you add close to $200 million. So in the end Bolt grossed nearly $314 million. Without other costs, the film made a $164 million profit.
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/BOLT.php

Not quite. The studio only gets a percentage of the total box office, which is a complicated thing to estimate. You can figure that the studio would receive about 60% of the total box office (They get a much higher percentage early on in a films release, and then less later on).

So Bolt, for example, cost 150 million to make. Figure another 25 million to market, manufacture film (going digital fast so those costs are shrinking), etc. 60% of the World wide box office would be 188 million that the studio would actually see. So assuming that my estimates are correct, the studio saw a profit of 13 million dollars for the film.

These are total guesses....it's very difficult to estimate exactly what the final profits of a film will be. Then figure in the DVD sales and merchandising sales and you can guess that Bolt was solidly in the black.

If TPATF does well overseas, then it will be profitable. It's not going to cover it's cost with the Domestic sales though. If it does 90 Million in the US, then Disney would see about 54 Million of that (Based on my 60% rule of thumb approach). You can figure that it cost 20-30 million for marketing and other costs. So the cost of the film with everything is about 130 Million conservatively. That means that to break even (excluding DVD sales and merchandising sales) it will have to do at least 220 million world wide to cover it's costs.

I have read stories about Disney looking at the "whole picture" when it looks at the Return On Investment for films. That they will include DVD sales, and merchandising sales in the analysis. Those are pretty words, but companies don't really do that. Each division is responsible for it's own sales and income.

I am telling you, that Disney is very concerned right now.

 

[xdan0920]

It should be easily over 75 million by the end of the holiday break. (It made on Monday almost what it made on Saturday!) After that it really depends on word of mouth. I don't agree they have marketed the heck out of it though. I've seen relatively few commercials. And there are no large scale tie-ins with food outlets, Walmart etc. The in-park promotions were the biggest promotion it appears.

Anyway, I think it will break the 100 million dollar mark in the US. I also think it could be stong overseas. So my prediction is it will recoup all costs through it's ticket sales. DVD's sales, PPV, and merchandising will be all profit from that point to the end of time. Again, I was worried it would bomb because Disney really seemed to be quietly lowering expectations. I am not at all convinced they are that disappointed.

You are way off about the marketing push. Disney unleashed a huge huge huge marketing push for this movie. There was not a single night watching tv where I did not see multiple commercials for the movie. Geico had a major joint commercial role out using PatF clips, and the frog.

Plus don't forget the limited engagements in NY and LA that were so heavily hyped. They tried to make this an event film. But its not. I wish it was, I really do. The Lion King and Aladdin are my 2 favorite movies of all time, I was hoping for something along those lines. Too bad they marketed the film, like they do the parks now, toward 5 year old girls.

This constant pandering to little girls is now ruining Disney films the same way it is ruining the MK.

 

[dxwwf3]

This constant pandering to little girls is now ruining Disney films the same way it is ruining the MK.

:sohappy:

 

[MousDad]

This constant pandering to little girls is now ruining Disney films the same way it is ruining the MK.

I've been begging my boys (6 & 8) since opening to go see PATF, but they want no part of it. I was informed that they don't want to be laughed at. Not a lie.

Looks like I'm going to be heading in with dark sunglasses and a trench coat.

Either that or I'll threaten to take away all their video games.

"No TV or Wii for a week unless you go to that Disney movie with me, you little brats!!!"

 

[EPCOT Explorer]

I've been begging my boys (6 & 8) since opening to go see PATF, but they want no part of it. I was informed that they don't want to be laughed at. Not a lie.

Looks like I'm going to be heading in with dark sunglasses and a trench coat.

Either that or I'll threaten to take away all their video games.

"No TV or Wii for a week unless you go to that Disney movie with me, you little brats!!!"

You are doing what's best.:lookaroun :lol:

 

[cdunbar]

You are doing what's best.:lookaroun :lol:

It's important to remember as a parent that you will always know what's best for your children...:ROFLOL:

 

[jt04]

Not quite. The studio only gets a percentage of the total box office, which is a complicated thing to estimate. You can figure that the studio would receive about 60% of the total box office (They get a much higher percentage early on in a films release, and then less later on).

So Bolt, for example, cost 150 million to make. Figure another 25 million to market, manufacture film (going digital fast so those costs are shrinking), etc. 60% of the World wide box office would be 188 million that the studio would actually see. So assuming that my estimates are correct, the studio saw a profit of 13 million dollars for the film.

These are total guesses....it's very difficult to estimate exactly what the final profits of a film will be. Then figure in the DVD sales and merchandising sales and you can guess that Bolt was solidly in the black.

If TPATF does well overseas, then it will be profitable. It's not going to cover it's cost with the Domestic sales though. If it does 90 Million in the US, then Disney would see about 54 Million of that (Based on my 60% rule of thumb approach). You can figure that it cost 20-30 million for marketing and other costs. So the cost of the film with everything is about 130 Million conservatively. That means that to break even (excluding DVD sales and merchandising sales) it will have to do at least 220 million world wide to cover it's costs.

I have read stories about Disney looking at the "whole picture" when it looks at the Return On Investment for films. That they will include DVD sales, and merchandising sales in the analysis. Those are pretty words, but companies don't really do that. Each division is responsible for it's own sales and income.

I am telling you, that Disney is very concerned right now.

Oh look, PatF had the biggest jump in ticket sales on Tuesday for movies in wide release after posting the smallest drop on Monday. It is now well over the 70 million mark with 5 days left in the Christmas break. Might want to recalibrate your figures.

Proof....

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-12-29&p=.htm


Again, Disney knew this was a bit of a niche film but it is holding up fairly well. I am very confident my prediction of going over 100 million in the US is accurate. Now another prediction. It will surpass the Lilo and Stitch box office worldwide total.

 

[Disneyfanman]

Oh look, PatF had the biggest jump in ticket sales on Tuesday for movies in wide release after posting the smallest drop on Monday. It is now well over the 70 million mark with 5 days left in the Christmas break. Might want to recalibrate your figures.

Proof....

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-12-29&p=.htm


Again, Disney knew this was a bit of a niche film but it is holding up fairly well. I am very confident my prediction of going over 100 million in the US is accurate. Now another prediction. It will surpass the Lilo and Stitch box office worldwide total.

LOL! I will be really really happy to be wrong on this one! Don't ever change JT. I love reading your posts.

 

[2gether]

Anecdodal evidence

But we went to the 12:15 p.m. show at our local theater today and it was PACKED with kids and parents. I think the movie is doing just fine thanks.

I really enjoyed the film. It is not quite on the level of the all time classics but it is a beautiful film with a good message (life in balance). Commercially, I think the voo-doo is a bit of a downer for a lot of people. I know several people who are not taking their younger (3-5) kids because they might be too frightened by that aspect. My wife and I went to see the Christmas Carol movie without the kids for fear of the scary parts and were very glad we did...our 3 year old would have been having nightmares for months. No such worries here, but it did ride the line of what I would take my young-ins to see.

All that said, I think the movie will make >$100 mil fairly easily. Given the packed house today we may see it open some more theaters for matinees this weekend.

 

[jt04]

But we went to the 12:15 p.m. show at our local theater today and it was PACKED with kids and parents. I think the movie is doing just fine thanks.

I really enjoyed the film. It is not quite on the level of the all time classics but it is a beautiful film with a good message (life in balance). Commercially, I think the voo-doo is a bit of a downer for a lot of people. I know several people who are not taking their younger (3-5) kids because they might be too frightened by that aspect. My wife and I went to see the Christmas Carol movie without the kids for fear of the scary parts and were very glad we did...our 3 year old would have been having nightmares for months. No such worries here, but it did ride the line of what I would take my young-ins to see.

All that said, I think the movie will make >$100 mil fairly easily. Given the packed house today we may see it open some more theaters for matinees this weekend.

Nothing would be better than if this turns out to be one of those movies that snowballs because of good word of mouth. If young people really like it there should be another surge when they return to school and tell their friends about it. I'm optimistic