Predictions on when evening hours and nighttime shows can resume?

[ToTBellHop]

A vaccine should have no direct impact on changes to park operations. These should be based on the same infection numbers we use now. A good vaccine should lead to lower numbers which then leads to a reduction of restrictions.

No. The plan is for anyone over age 2 to get a tattoo saying "No 'Rona" on the forehead after the 2nd vaccine dose. Those with tattoos will be allowed to see Happily Ever After starting March 1, 2021.

 

[sullyinMT]

No. The plan is for anyone over age 2 to get a tattoo saying "No 'Rona" on the forehead after the 2nd vaccine dose. Those with tattoos will be allowed to see Happily Ever After starting March 1, 2021.

Tattoo unnecessary. The chip in the syringe will be scannable once injected.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Tattoo unnecessary. The chip in the syringe will be scannable once injected.

So the rumor that it will be Mickey-shaped is true? Now we know why MagicBands can go away next year. You’ll just rub your shoulder against the FP+ Mickey. Genius.

 

[GoofGoof]

Any idea what stage of a vaccine WDW will reopen nighttime entertainment? Will it be enough if at least the hospitals (early stages I’m guessing) only have the vaccine? Or will they wait until everyone can get the vaccine like they can now with the flu vaccine? From what I’m understanding is we are talking time frames of end of this year/early 2021 for hospitals to get the vaccine, and end of 2021 for places like Walgreens to offer the vaccine. That means a whole year until we see entertainment return.

This is the way I understand a vaccine roll-out will work. If a vaccine trial is successful and if the FDA approves it sometime this year (Nov/Dec) they will have a limited number of doses available for emergency authorization immediately. They will go to healthcare workers, first responders and the elderly. After that there will be a government run distribution program where additional doses of the vaccine will be distributed for a larger portion of the population. This will likely also start out limited to people with pre-existing conditions or other factors that make them higher risk. That’s likely to start a few months after approval. You won’t be able to get the vaccine from your doctor or a local pharmacy yet, it will be more centralized and highly controlled with each county likely having one or more designated vaccination locations. No clue if they will do reservations or have time slots or if it will be first come first serve. As the higher risk people are vaccinated then it goes to the general public. After everyone who wants a vaccination gets one then the remaining doses will be distributed to doctors offices, pharmacies and other locations for the 2nd wave of people who wanted to wait to see if the vaccine worked and was safe. My best guess is it takes 3-6 months to vaccinate wave 1 people and then the rest get it after 6 months.

As far as WDW, I think it all depends on case counts, travel habits and the overall confidence of the general public to start going to large crowd places. It won’t matter how many people get the vaccine but rather how effective the vaccine is on slowing virus spread. I could see a loosening of restrictions as early as late Spring if the vaccine is approved this year. More realistic is probably by June. These are all just guesses based on our hopes that the virus cuts down on infections dramatically. The point is Disney shouldn’t have to wait until everyone is vaccinated to lift restrictions, but they also won’t do it as soon as a vaccine is approved. It will be somewhere in the middle.

 

[Giss Neric]

We moved our May 2020 trip to December 2020 and now just moved it again to May 2021. We aren't really sure what it will take to bring us back but probably at a minimum longer hours. We have some dates in mind for Fall 2021 as well if we decide to move it again. I'd love for nighttime entertainment to be back before we go but I'm not counting on it at all.

We have a second trip in the works with my parents/siblings and some close family friends. It will be our friend's second trip (first was in 2019, thankfully). Initially were planning for spring break of this year in an off site rental but back in the spring we decided to bump it to spring break 2022 and stay on site (since we all have more time to save up). Since they don't go often, the restrictions in place are really a deal breaker. Hopefully we're good to go with a 2022 trip!

You probably should just move it to October 2021 onward for the 50th celebration.

 

[ToTBellHop]

This is the way I understand a vaccine roll-out will work. If a vaccine trial is successful and if the FDA approves it sometime this year (Nov/Dec) they will have a limited number of doses available for emergency authorization immediately. They will go to healthcare workers, first responders and the elderly. After that there will be a government run distribution program where additional doses of the vaccine will be distributed for a larger portion of the population. This will likely also start out limited to people with pre-existing conditions or other factors that make them higher risk. That’s likely to start a few months after approval. You won’t be able to get the vaccine from your doctor or a local pharmacy yet, it will be more centralized and highly controlled with each county likely having one or more designated vaccination locations. No clue if they will do reservations or have time slots or if it will be first come first serve. As the higher risk people are vaccinated then it goes to the general public. After everyone who wants a vaccination gets one then the remaining doses will be distributed to doctors offices, pharmacies and other locations for the 2nd wave of people who wanted to wait to see if the vaccine worked and was safe. My best guess is it takes 3-6 months to vaccinate wave 1 people and then the rest get it after 6 months.

As far as WDW, I think it all depends on case counts, travel habits and the overall confidence of the general public to start going to large crowd places. It won’t matter how many people get the vaccine but rather how effective the vaccine is on slowing virus spread. I could see a loosening of restrictions as early as late Spring if the vaccine is approved this year. More realistic is probably by June. These are all just guesses based on our hopes that the virus cuts down on infections dramatically. The point is Disney shouldn’t have to wait until everyone is vaccinated to lift restrictions, but they also won’t do it as soon as a vaccine is approved. It will be somewhere in the middle.

That last part will be impossible, however (doctor’s offices, pharmacies) because most of the vaccines must be kept at -80 degrees Celsius. Your doctor’s office or CVS doesn’t have that kind of freezer nor do they have an ample supply of dry ice.

 

[sullyinMT]

That last part will be impossible, however (doctor’s offices, pharmacies) because most of the vaccines must be kept at -80 degrees Celsius. Your doctor’s office or CVS doesn’t have that kind of freezer nor do they have an ample supply of dry ice.

That is true of the long term storage, but we haven’t been told much about stability after thawing (for lack of a better term). While the local CVS probably wouldn’t be part of the distribution plan, many doctors offices are at least affiliated with a larger hospital system that could absolutely hold weekend vaccination “blitzes” in more rural suburbs if its stable enough to be at least in a standard med freezer for 72 hours. Again, we haven’t been told that just yet (though I’m sure the companies and investigation sites are examining that now).

 

[ToTBellHop]

That is true of the long term storage, but we haven’t been told much about stability after thawing (for lack of a better term). While the local CVS probably wouldn’t be part of the distribution plan, many doctors offices are at least affiliated with a larger hospital system that could absolutely hold weekend vaccination “blitzes” in more rural suburbs if its stable enough to be at least in a standard med freezer for 72 hours. Again, we haven’t been told that just yet (though I’m sure the companies and investigation sites are examining that now).

They are going so far as to install tracking devices inside the coolers when they ship to ensure that the temperature on the plane does not raise by enough to denature the vaccine, which suggests these vaccines cannot go above -80 for long. They are literally searching to find enough CO2 to have the dry ice necessary.

This will leave many countries of the world out-of-luck.

 

[GoofGoof]

That last part will be impossible, however (doctor’s offices, pharmacies) because most of the vaccines must be kept at -80 degrees Celsius. Your doctor’s office or CVS doesn’t have that kind of freezer nor do they have an ample supply of dry ice.

I know Moderna and Pfizer are both looking at ways to make the vaccine more stable at higher temperatures. The initial doses distributed will be limited to locations that have the proper freezer equipment to store them. The thought right now is that longer term these vaccines will be able to be stored at higher temperatures allowing it to be distributed more like a flu shot. If that doesn’t happen then I agree that the distribution will need to be limited still even after the first wave.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I know Moderna and Pfizer are both looking at ways to make the vaccine more stable at higher temperatures. The initial doses distributed will be limited to locations that have the proper freezer equipment to store them. The thought right now is that longer term these vaccines will be able to be stored at higher temperatures allowing it to be distributed more like a flu shot. If that doesn’t happen then I agree that the distribution will need to be limited still even after the first wave.

Let's hope they can figure it out for folks in more rural areas. At least vaccines can be administered quickly "drive-thru-style," especially if they are free and do not bill to insurance, which should be the case. Maybe they can store vaccine in the meat freezers at McDonald's and a vaccine can come with a Happy Meal. Don't worry, there would also be a toy.

 

[GoofGoof]

Let's hope they can figure it out for folks in more rural areas. At least vaccines can be administered quickly "drive-thru-style," especially if they are free and do not bill to insurance, which should be the case. Maybe they can store vaccine in the meat freezers at McDonald's and a vaccine can come with a Happy Meal. Don't worry, there would also be a toy.

As long as the vaccine replaces the apple slices and not the fries I’m good with that

 

[Mander]

You probably should just move it to October 2021 onward for the 50th celebration.

We go often enough that I wouldn't rule out a May 2021 and Fall 2021 trip. I'm just not booking a second until I know we're able actually go. Plus I think the idea of two full years between our trips (Sept 2019 to Oct. 2021) would make me too sad right now.

 

[sullyinMT]

They are going so far as to install tracking devices inside the coolers when they ship to ensure that the temperature on the plane does not raise by enough to denature the vaccine, which suggests these vaccines cannot go above -80 for long. They are literally searching to find enough CO2 to have the dry ice necessary.

This will leave many countries of the world out-of-luck.

Let's hope they can figure it out for folks in more rural areas. At least vaccines can be administered quickly "drive-thru-style," especially if they are free and do not bill to insurance, which should be the case. Maybe they can store vaccine in the meat freezers at McDonald's and a vaccine can come with a Happy Meal. Don't worry, there would also be a toy.

This, of course, is the biggest concern. Luckily for the US rural population, residents either work really spread out (ranching, ma & pa garages, small community stores), where social distancing comes naturally, or commute to somewhere like a meat packing plant or factory where large scale distribution could probably be coordinated with clinics in the area. These folks often need to come to population centers where a little planning can get them an appointment pretty easily if they want a vaccine.
For the underserved nations, if something isn’t figured out for longer term stability, I naturally agree the world population has a way to go to be out of this.

 

[sullyinMT]

As long as the vaccine replaces the apple slices and not the fries I’m good with that

In my market, the GoGurt option has disappeared. If that because they’ve opened up cold storage space?

 

[StarshipDisney]

I'm in that category if I can help it! AT LEAST until MRFF, FOF and HEA are back in MK! PTN or something would really get me over the finish line!! F! or something at DHS. By the time i go who knows if I'll see EF or Harm....

Same here. Disney is such a "diminished vacation" right now but prices only continue to go up steeply. Moved our vacation at Contemporary from Sept 2020 to Sept 2021 and had a 7% price increase. If things are no better then, I am sure we will cancel again. Maybe stay off-site and do a really cheap vacation because Disney is simply not worth the big bucks right now.

I should have been at Disney as I write this. It has been an extremely sad week around here. But I know that I would have come back from this vacation complaining to myself that it was not remotely worth what I paid for it. With no fireworks, that Magic Kingdom view room at the Contemporary loses a whole lot of its luster.

 

[GoofGoof]

This, of course, is the biggest concern. Luckily for the US rural population, residents either work really spread out (ranching, ma & pa garages, small community stores), where social distancing comes naturally, our commute to somewhere like a May packing plant or factory where large scale distribution could probably be coordinated with clinics in the area. These folks often need to come to population centers where a little planning can get them an appointment pretty easily if they want a vaccine.
For the underserved nations, if something isn’t figured out for longer term stability, I naturally agree the world population has a way to go to be out of this.

I have a friend who is a scientist at a pharma company. Not one of the 3 in final stage trials right now but another one that is also working on a covid vaccine. Part of his job is altering vaccines and other drugs to fit the needs of the business side for shipping and distribution. It’s a regular occurrence that a vaccine is altered to ship in different size containers or different packaging. It’s usually all about cost benefit. Having a shelf stable vaccine reduces the cost of shipping so if they can make it stable without hurting the effectiveness then that goes straight to the bottom line. It also helps open more avenues for sales. In the case of the first movers for Covid vaccines all of the emphasis has been on getting a safe and effective vaccine to market as fast as possible. After the dust settles I’m confident they will figure out a way to make it work and even if they don’t one of the 100+ other vaccines in development may be able to be stored at room temperature longer so for really rural areas or countries without freezer capacity another vaccine may be the winner.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I have a friend who is a scientist at a pharma company. Not one of the 3 in final stage trials right now but another one that is also working on a covid vaccine. Part of his job is altering vaccines and other drugs to fit the needs of the business side for shipping and distribution. It’s a regular occurrence that a vaccine is altered to ship in different size containers or different packaging. It’s usually all about cost benefit. Having a shelf stable vaccine reduces the cost of shipping so if they can make it stable without hurting the effectiveness then that goes straight to the bottom line. It also helps open more avenues for sales. In the case of the first movers for Covid vaccines all of the emphasis has been on getting a safe and effective vaccine to market as fast as possible. After the dust settles I’m confident they will figure out a way to make it work and even if they don’t one of the 100+ other vaccines in development may be able to be stored at room temperature longer so for really rural areas or countries without freezer capacity another vaccine may be the winner.

That certainly makes sense. Rural areas and less-developed countries, for better or for worse, were never going to receive any vaccine early on. This is why America could potentially be vaccinated by next summer while the pandemic world-wide is not predicted to end until 2022.

 

[TTA94]

Disney is allowing more guests in the parks creating crowds, yet they can’t bring back fireworks? More and more I’m thinking safely isn’t the primary reason why they haven’t returned. It’s cost cutting. Not saying safety isn’t a consideration but I’m betting it’s not the main reason.

 

[TTA94]

Bring on the nighttime hours and fireworks!!

 

[HouCuseChickie]

It does make me wonder what's in their plans considering the fireworks that were tested at Epcot the other night. Obviously, no crystal ball here and I'm sure they're trying to set a good example with WDW so DL can get the green light. Still, there are people who won't go without fireworks, so maybe this is pointing to some changes.