Numbers, Cars and Quality ...

[yoyoflamingo]

The complete lack of Disneyland-style buffeteria restaurants at WDW parks has always baffled me. Buffeterias are such a nice option to have a place that slots inbetween fast food and expensive/longer waitress-service. Disneyland/DCA has many of them; Plaza Inn, French Market, Riverbelle Terrace, Paradise Garden Grill, and now Flo's V8 Cafe.

I remember when the Crystal Palace (and, not as clearly, Le Cellier) used to be buffeterias. In fact, the Crystal Palace was one of my favorite spots to eat. I have been there once since it's been converted. It's a shame that gorgeous place is now second fiddle to the characters. Eating in there used to be so peaceful and I remember once or twice a trio of musicians would play as well.

WDW definitely needs to bring the buffeteria back. The ones listed are some of my favorite places to eat in DL (with Flo's being an exception - won't eat there until about May or August)

 

[Funmeister]

No - simply the guy $%'d up. There was a cascade of events that made that screw up become fatal - but the core issue was human error. Not 'design', 'not process', not understaffed - the guy simply made a call after he forgot to do it because he had more than one task. The guy in central shops just flat out screwed up.



The guy offsite made no difference - it was an error by central shop, an error not caught by the pilot (which one might argue he should have), and the people in the station also failed to catch it in time to intervene. People on the platform would have had just as much 'intervention' capability as the coordinator.

It's a collection of mistakes that cost someone their life. But in the scheme of this discussion, it failed to make the general public to start to question Disney.

At DL, the accidents were far more systematic.. and helped spur the change that the state OSHA board started taking oversight of permanent amusements.

I am sorry but I must disagree. It is IMPOSSIBLE for a pilot in the train or a Cast Member on the load platform to physically see the switch. If you had someone in Central, as there was supposed to be, the accident could have been prevented. The guy offsite WOULF HAVE made a difference the same as if there would have been a coordinator in the tower. Remember the coordinator went home leaving the tower empty which should have been covered by the hungry manager.

How could the pilot or any other CM catch the mistake from the platform or from the train? The Maint CM said he moved the switch and did'nt. How could any of them physically see the switch to confirm? There is no way they could. BUT if there would have been a manager in the tower, as company policy states for ALL switches, they would have been able to see where the beam had or had not lost power to determine the beam had been moved.

Sorry, but from my own personal experience there is no way you will convince me otherwise. I was there too many years and yes they are understaffed. It was not the design or the process that caused the accident but it was the negligence of not following those processes and procedures that led to the accident. Give me three names of Disney Transportation Execs that were in meetings previous to the accident discussing how to further make labor and maint cuts? I was in those meetings! It went far beyond monorails includeing watercraft and buses. Give me the names and I will accept your opinion. Until then...please do not assume what the pilot and Cast Members were or were not capable of doing to right the wrong.

Sorry if I have come across a little rude but you have really hit a sore spot with me!

You may agree or disagree with me on this one but I know the facts and I ask you to please trust me when I say the human error was caused by lack of traning and labor. This is all I will say about this. No reason open an entire new investigation.

 

[ParentsOf4]

SO lets ask the question here.....So the difference to get a couple of extra FP's is to pay what amounts to about a thousand dollars per seven day trip....if you figure in the difference in cost between mod resort vs deluxe resort?
I would venture to say that in oreder to get this great new offering you will have to pay rack rate. Spend what amounts to a thousand bucks for something you used to get for free? seriously? Oh and dont forget no matter if NG comes online or not....there will be price increases!

So what about the rest of the day once you have used your FP?....spend the rest of the day in a manufactured wait in a queue? ANother problem I see with NG is that they will control the number of FP's, They see some attractions are not getting the traffic so they limit the number of more popular attractions from day to day...how are we to know. I dont think they do this now because they have less control when only a portion has FP queues....all of that will change in the future where EVERY attaction will have FP....weather it needs it or not...
They will say....sorry TSMM all out but hey.....you can get one for Peter Pan. spreading the crowd where they want when they want. Hearded sheep is what it is.

When does just planning a visit get to the point where it isnt worth it....forget the cost for a minute. But what is it going to be like when you have a large party where some guest can not ride or dosnt want to ride a piticular attraction. How in the world are you going to plan a visit around those circumstances a 180 days out? What will happen to the casual guest who for whatever reason dosnt recieve the message that thier entire vacation needs to be planned ( this still happens with ADRs)? They come to the parks and get shut out of resturants and now attractions? You think this guest will ever return? Has Disney really got the message out in total clarity about ADRs? ummmmm a big NO! So why should we assume they will get the message out on a much more complicated system?

There has been some members here that are supportive of NG.....someone please enlighten me again why this is going to be a good idea. Explain to me again how it will enhance my guest experience? Also tell me how it will be worth several hundred dollars?.....please someone!

TDO expects Next Gen to generate additional revenue on its own. I’ll try to make this point using an example. What follows is not fact, just conjecture. I’m also not using real numbers, just approximations.

Let’s assume it costs $400/night for a Deluxe Resort, $200/night for a Moderate Resort, and $100/night for a Value Resort. WDW’s target family of 4, Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue, are trying to decide what they should do for their next vacation. They are not rich but have enough disposable income to afford a WDW vacation once every few years.

On previous trips, they stayed at Moderate or Value Resorts, maybe even offsite. They wanted to spend most of their time at the theme parks and the hotel mostly was a place to sleep and shower. Extra Magic Hours and Fast Passes were the same for everyone so there was little incentive to upgrade to Deluxe Resorts.

Our lovely family of 4 wants to have a relaxing vacation and is tired of getting up early so they can get FPs. They are tired of standing in line 50 minutes to ride Peter Pan, Dumbo, and Winnie the Pooh. They are tired of waking up ridiculously early or staying awake ridiculously late for EMHs. Last trip, they were disappointed because they couldn’t get a good spot to watch the nighttime parade and fireworks because they only arrived 50 minutes before show time while the crazy people started camping out 2 hours earlier. They also were disappointed that they couldn’t book a table at Cinderella’s Royal Table because Dad’s fingers weren’t fast enough to dial the number exactly at the 6-month window.

Now WDW comes up with a multi-tiered Next Gen system. If you pay more, you get more. WDW tells them, “We have a solution to all your problems. We’ll give you 3 FPs at the times you want. We’ll also give you a reserved spot to watch the parade and fireworks. We’ll also give you preferential booking at Cinderella’s Royal Table. All you have to do is stay at one of our beautiful Deluxe Resorts.”

By upgrading from (for example) a Moderate to a Deluxe Resort, WDW has extracted an extra $200/day ($400 - $200) from this family without building a single new attraction or offering a single new show. That's an extra $1400 for a week's vacation and what exactly has WDW built?

What this family gains is not FPs or ADRs; they gain “quality” vacation time. Sleep in and stand in line 4 hours less per day. Added to that, they now are staying at a fancy Deluxe Resort with more square feet in the room. Sounds like a better vacation to me.

If you were this lovely family of four, what would you do?

The bigger question is whether Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue will come back to WDW at all. As long as Universal keeps adding E Ticket attractions and WDW doesn’t, Universal is going to have a strong appeal to this family of four.

The way WDW’s price structure exists today, there’s not much of a downside if Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue spend days at Universal or SeaWorld. However, now that they’re paying $400/night to stay at a WDW Deluxe Resort and have guaranteed FPs and ADRs for each day, why would they pay extra to visit Universal only to stand in line there? Obviously some will but others might say, “I’ll wait until everything’s finished at Universal before I go.” By the time that’s done, FLE and Avatarland should be almost complete so maybe that’s enough to keep this family’s trips to Universal to a minimum.

Built into this is TDO’s arrogant assumption that FLE + Avatarland = Transformers + WWOHP2. There’s a reason WDW attendance and room occupancy are suffering; it’s because the suits at TDO think “We’re WDW, everybody loves us.” Nothing’s certain; the suits could be right. Quality issues? “I got a million paying guests complaining about long lines, another half-million complaining about ADRs. I got a few hundred whining on the Internet about quality. What quality issues?”

If I approved a $1.5B expenditure for Next Gen, a $500M expenditure for FLE, and a $400M expenditure for Avatarland, I’m sticking with this story right up until the time they fire me.

I think this is the strategy being employed by TDO. Again, just conjecture.

P.S. If this is what Next Gen is, then there are a couple of intriguing aspects from a business perspective. First, as previously mentioned, WDW could eliminate EMH, saving a lot of money. EMHs are no longer needed if onsite guests get extra FPs during normal park hours. Second, this could be a way for WDW to curtail “Free Dining” and “Room Only” discounts like Iger has been threatening to do for years. Onsite guests get more FPs, better ADRs, and preferred viewing. WDW no longer needs to offer as many discounts if guests have stronger incentives to stay onsite, especially since these incentives require minimal opex.

 

[flynnibus]

How could the pilot or any other CM catch the mistake from the platform or from the train? The Maint CM said he moved the switch and did'nt. How could any of them physically see the switch to confirm? There is no way they could

Simply because one wouldn't have had to seen the switch to recognize the train was in the wrong spot.

BUT if there would have been a manager in the tower, as company policy states for ALL switches, they would have been able to see where the beam had or had not lost power to determine the beam had been moved.

The NTSB did not find this to be part of operating policy.

It was not the design or the process that caused the accident but it was the negligence of not following those processes and procedures that led to the accident

Something the independent NTSB did not find to be a environmental issue.

Give me three names of Disney Transportation Execs that were in meetings previous to the accident discussing how to further make labor and maint cuts? I was in those meetings! It went far beyond monorails includeing watercraft and buses. Give me the names and I will accept your opinion. Until then...please do not assume what the pilot and Cast Members were or were not capable of doing to right the wrong.

You don't have to 'accept' my opinion - they are the opinions of the independent investigation carried out by the NTSB.

 

[Funmeister]

Simply because one wouldn't have had to seen the switch to recognize the train was in the wrong spot.

You cannot see the switch from the EPCOT station at the TTC especially at night!

The NTSB did not find this to be part of operating policy.



Something the independent NTSB did not find to be a environmental issue.



You don't have to 'accept' my opinion - they are the opinions of the independent investigation carried out by the NTSB.

So you agree their findings are opinions that possibly could be wrong? Once again...I have my own facts, not opinions, of what happend first hand....we agree to disagree. I could sit here and show you scanned copies of monorail SOP for Cast Members and management but if you are going to use "NTSB" as your answer for everything then you win. I know what happend but for the sake of argument, you win. lol

 

[flynnibus]

So you agree their findings are opinions that possibly could be wrong? Once again...I have my own facts, not opinions, of what happend first hand....we agree to disagree. I could sit here and show you scanned copies of monorail SOP for Cast Members and management but if you are going to use "NTSB" as your answer for everything then you win. I know what happend but for the sake of argument, you win. lol

So now you are going to say Disney withheld information from the NTSB and that your local insider circles of CM hersay is more credible than an independent investigation of experts whose job it is to do this full time. Gotcha.

I must admit.. it's the first time I've ever heard someone try to discredit the NTSB because they believe the work chatter.

 

[Funmeister]

So now you are going to say Disney withheld information from the NTSB and that your local insider circles of CM hersay is more credible than an independent investigation of experts whose job it is to do this full time. Gotcha.

I must admit.. it's the first time I've ever heard someone try to discredit the NTSB because they believe the work chatter.

lol You win Flynn! I did not come here to argue with you or anyone else. lol You win...you got it right on the money! You are absolutely correct! How dare I question anything that is outside of that report. You win brother! lol My insider circles...lol You win...lol

 

[John]

TDO expects Next Gen to generate additional revenue on its own. I’ll try to make this point using an example. What follows is not fact, just conjecture. I’m also not using real numbers, just approximations.

Let’s assume it costs $400/night for a Deluxe Resort, $200/night for a Moderate Resort, and $100/night for a Value Resort. WDW’s target family of 4, Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue, are trying to decide what they should do for their next vacation. They are not rich but have enough disposable income to afford a WDW vacation once every few years.

On previous trips, they stayed at Moderate or Value Resorts, maybe even offsite. They wanted to spend most of their time at the theme parks and the hotel mostly was a place to sleep and shower. Extra Magic Hours and Fast Passes were the same for everyone so there was little incentive to upgrade to Deluxe Resorts.

Our lovely family of 4 wants to have a relaxing vacation and is tired of getting up early so they can get FPs. They are tired of standing in line 50 minutes to ride Peter Pan, Dumbo, and Winnie the Pooh. They are tired of waking up ridiculously early or staying awake ridiculously late for EMHs. Last trip, they were disappointed because they couldn’t get a good spot to watch the nighttime parade and fireworks because they only arrived 50 minutes before show time while the crazy people started camping out 2 hours earlier. They also were disappointed that they couldn’t book a table at Cinderella’s Royal Table because Dad’s fingers weren’t fast enough to dial the number exactly at the 6-month window.

Now WDW comes up with a multi-tiered Next Gen system. If you pay more, you get more. WDW tells them, “We have a solution to all your problems. We’ll give you 3 FPs at the times you want. We’ll also give you a reserved spot to watch the parade and fireworks. We’ll also give you preferential booking at Cinderella’s Royal Table. All you have to do is stay at one of our beautiful Deluxe Resorts.”

By upgrading from (for example) a Moderate to a Deluxe Resort, WDW has extracted an extra $200/day ($400 - $200) from this family without building a single new attraction or offering a single new show. That's an extra $1400 for a week's vacation and what exactly has WDW built?

What this family gains is not FPs or ADRs; they gain “quality” vacation time. Sleep in and stand in line 4 hours less per day. Sounds like a better vacation to me.

If you were this lovely family of four, what would you do?

The bigger question is whether Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue will come back to WDW at all. As long as Universal keeps adding E Ticket attractions and WDW doesn’t, Universal is going to have a strong appeal to this family of four.

The way WDW’s price structure exists today, there’s not much of a downside to Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue spending days at Universal or SeaWorld. However, now that they’re paying $400/night to stay at a WDW Deluxe Resort and have guaranteed FPs and ADRs for each day, why would they pay extra to visit Universal only to stand in line there? Obviously some will but others might say, “I’ll wait until everything’s finished at Universal before I go.” By the time that’s done, FLE and Avatarland should be almost complete so maybe that’s enough to keep this family’s trips to Universal to a minimum.

Built into this is TDO’s arrogant assumption that FLE + Avatarland = Transformers + WWOHP2. There’s a reason WDW attendance and room occupancy are suffering; it’s because the suits at TDO think “We’re WDW, everybody loves us.” Nothing’s certain; the suits could be right. Quality issues? “I got a million paying guests complaining about long lines, another half-million complaining about ADRs? I got a few hundred whining on the Internet about quality. What quality issues?”

If I approved a $1.5B expenditure for Next Gen, a $500M expenditure for FLE, and a $400M expenditure for Avatarland, I’m sticking with this story right up until the time they fire me.

I think this is the strategy being employed by TDO. Again, just conjecture.

I whole heartedly agree with this conjecture, and it may work for the Jones family. But how many Smith families will be squeezed out? WHat about locals? I dont care what BS they try to sell them they will get squeezed the most. Ofcourse Disney wouldnt care about those folks since they are not spending the money. Again for the jones family it will be wonderful. But what about the rest of us that under any circumstances we can not or will not afford to spend on deluxe price points? The key word in your entire scenario is arrogance.....Disney thinks they will have incredible numbers lining up for this. My opinion is once this is implamented Disney will cut amenities at the deluxe resorts even further making them less deluxe then they already are. Once again squeezing the life blood out of WDW.

WDW's life blood? quality....Disney has figured out how to offer less quality and charge more. I dont see where convience is considered quality. Even though Disney may have read the average American quite well.....laziness can be a commodity. The Jones family....the four of them can ride around the parks ion thier EVC's waving thier fast passes in hand screaming...."out of our way!" we have a FP for Wishes. The reason people stay off-sight is to save money....the difference between off sight and property is enough for the decision to go to Disney in the first place. There isnt a incentive in the world that is going to change that. Regaurdless what Disney thinks people have only so much money to spend on thier vacation.Also in your scenario the bulk of occupancy is trying to upsell a guest that is already booking a visit. I dont think this will make people who wasnt looking at WDW stand up and say.....Oooooooooo I want to go there this year! We wont have to stand in line!

 

[ParentsOf4]

I whole heartedly agree with this conjecture, and it may work for the Jones family. But how many Smith families will be squeezed out? WHat about locals? I dont care what BS they try to sell them they will get squeezed the most. Ofcourse Disney wouldnt care about those folks since they are not spending the money. Again for the jones family it will be wonderful. But what about the rest of us that under any circumstances we can not or will not afford to spend on deluxe price points? The key word in your entire scenario is arrogance.....Disney thinks they will have incredible numbers lining up for this. My opinion is once this is implamented Disney will cut amenities at the deluxe resorts even further making them less deluxe then they already are. Once again squeezing the life blood out of WDW.

WDW's life blood? quality....Disney has figured out how to offer less quality and charge more. I dont see where convience is considered quality. Even though Disney may have read the average American quite well.....laziness can be a commodity. The Jones family....the four of them can ride around the parks ion thier EVC's waving thier fast passes in hand screaming...."out of our way!" we have a FP for Wishes. The reason people stay off-sight is to save money....the difference between off sight and property is enough for the decision to go to Disney in the first place. There isnt a incentive in the world that is going to change that. Regaurdless what Disney thinks people have only so much money to spend on thier vacation.Also in your scenario the bulk of occupancy is trying to upsell a guest that is already booking a visit. I dont think this will make people who wasnt looking at WDW stand up and say.....Oooooooooo I want to go there this year! We wont have to stand in line!

Your questions: What about the Smith family? What about locals? What about quality? The short, flippant answer is that TDO doesn’t care. They care about the bottom line. “Greed is good”, “whatever the market will bear”, “fiduciary responsibility to shareholders”, etc. The MBAs have number crunched this 15 ways till Sunday and come up with a formula they think will maximize revenue and profits. People who are willing to spend more will get more. It’s that simple. You want a premium experience at WDW, take out a loan or hope that Little Johnny & Little Sue get college scholarships. It’s not TDO’s problem.

To paraphrase the old Oldsmobile commercial, “It’s not your father’s Walt Disney World”. It stopped being your father’s WDW when the MBAs began taking over in the mid-1990s. It becomes more apparent every year.

IMHO, these changes are not attempts to increase theme park attendance, only attempts to extract more money out of those that do attend. Iger has publically stated (to paraphrase) there is more blood to be squeezed from consumers.

Despite opinions to the contrary, most consumers are not stupid. As WDW reaches their tipping points, consumers start talking with their wallets. If something is “worth it”, consumers buy it. If not, they spend their money elsewhere. History is replete with examples of both consumer successes and failures. Every single producer thought their product was going to be a success. We shall see.

It doesn't bother me that they act this way. It bothers me that they act this way while hiding behind Walt Disney's legacy. Is there anyone left at TDO that believes in Walt's words?

I've always been bored with just making money. I've wanted to do things, I wanted to build things. Get something going. People look at me in different ways. Some of them say, 'The guy has no regard for money.' That is not true. I have had regard for money. But I'm not like some people who worship money as something you've got to have piled up in a big pile somewhere. I've only thought of money in one way, and that is to do something with it, you see? I don't think there is a thing that I own that I will ever get the benefit of, except through doing things with it.

 

[Alektronic]

The change really took affect in 1995. All Cast Members were brought into mandatory "change" meeting/seminars at the AMC movie theaters at Pleasure Island and the convention center at the Contemporary. Disney outsourced a PR firm to come in and give us a long drawn out story about Pete the parakeet and Vinny the vulture. Basically the story suggested that if Pete and Vinny traded places from the lush jungle to the barren desert (and vice versa), they would die because they could not change and adapt to their new environments. The story literally took 15 to 20 minutes and was painfully drawn out. At the end, the representative said "The lesson of this story is that if you do not change you will die. Ladies and gentlemen Walt Disney is dead. "Change" is the only way to survive in this marketplace and if you do not like it there is the door. No questions will be answered at this time. Have a great day!" At that point everyone in the auditorium was shocked and very confused and were ushered out for the next group to come in for thier presentation.

It felt like we were all punched in the stomach. The company later realized this was probably not the best way they could have communicated this message. To this day there are some execs and "lifers" who deny that those meetings actually even happend. Well, they did! Since that day I have seen a slow declining trend that has gained momentum in recent years.

I remember similar meetings, we had ours at Magic Kingdom in the old Walt Disney Story Theatre, that was the days of "Performance Excellence" basically it was an outside consultant talking about new corporate buzz words and most memorable was her saying that "Everyone better get on the bus or you will be left behind" following management changes again.

 

[MickeyPeace]

Kids say the darndest things, don't they?

But when kids pick up on it instinctively and without bias, as kids are able to do so purely, then you know it's for real.

Reminds me of this Youtube video I saw yesterday. The daughter of this family was looking forward to going inside of the Mexico Pavilion because of the memory of it being always night time inside. When she gets inside she says "It doesnt look as night timey as it used to. There are no stars and everything".

It is true. Even kids notice when details are removed and the overall effect is diminished.

At the 6:50 mark-

 

[Funmeister]

I remember similar meetings, we had ours at Magic Kingdom in the old Walt Disney Story Theatre, that was the days of "Performance Excellence" basically it was an outside consultant talking about new corporate buzz words and most memorable was her saying that "Everyone better get on the bus or you will be left behind" following management changes again.

Correct me if I am wrong but was that also about the time they rolled out the brand initiatives for each park? The concept was nothing would go into the parks that did not exemplify the brand. Epcot was Discovery, D-MGM was Action and I think MK was Magic?? I still have the pins somewhere. I am pretty sure that was part of the "Performance Excellence" push along with "No Strings Attached."

 

[71jason]

What's been the downside to Universal's stay-or-pay FP system? From what I've seen, not much.

There was some initial grumbling among the APs but it quickly passed because, honestly, there was no downside. Lines have been much better ever since Universal ditched the traditional FP system, even with the glut of new guests after Potter opened. Fanbois who think they're gaming the system hate to hear it, but FP drives up stand-by waits. FP is why Peter Pan has a 60 minute wait rather than 20.

If WDW truly does limit FP to onsite guests, thus cutting down the number in use overall, it will benefit everyone. Onsite guests will feel like they're getting a deal, which fills hotel rooms. (I also agree this could b the end of costly EMHs, another plus for WDW.) But offsite guests will have shorter lines, which seems to be the #1 factor in guest satisfaction.

Of course ... has there been any confirmation this is the actual plan? When Jim Hill (yeah, yeah, discredited, grain of salt, whatever) suggested it was earlier this year, he quickly backtracked the next day and stressed EVERYONE could use NextGen. Until we know solid details, this is all just speculation.

 

[GoofGoof]

I now have a theory of how WDW intends to use Next Gen to improve its bottom line. It’s a three-pronged approach:

• Improve hotel occupancy rates – If guests staying at a Deluxe Resort (for example) get 4 FPs per day, Moderate Resorts get 2 FPs per day, and Value Resorts get 1 FP per day, this will encourage offsite guests to stay onsite and will encourage onsite guests to upgrade their hotel. Who knows, maybe they will do something similar with ADRs. I can imagine Deluxe Resort guests being able to book their ADRs 6 months in advance, Moderate 5 months, Value 4 months, and everyone else 3 months. As a result, WDW hotel occupancy rates should improve, with more people staying at the very expensive Deluxe Resorts. Operating expenses for a hotel with 90% occupancy are not much more than a hotel with 70% occupancy. Filling unoccupied rooms in an existing hotel has a tremendous profit margin.
• Eliminate Extra Magic Hours – EMHs are an enormous operating expense. Considerable money could be saved by getting rid of these. With a multi-tiered FP system exclusively for onsite guests during regular park hours, EMHs are no longer needed. Hugh savings for WDW. Universal offers this and their attendance is better than ever. No doubt, TDO thinks they can do the same with minimal impact on overall attendance.
• Price increases – Of course. Just like they did when they switched to the Magic Your Way ticket system, WDW undoubtedly has plans to rename some things and then charge more for essentially the same service

Looking at it this way, I see how Next Gen should improve revenue and profits better than any new attraction. No wonder these have been WDW’s worst years for attraction development.

This is the first time I have heard an actual feasible reason(excuse) to drop so much cash into next gen. There just cannot be enough value in data mining to justify the cost. If they can actually drive people back to on property hotels that could be a big financial gain. Like you said in your post the costs of operating a hotel at 90% vs 70% is not much. If they think this incentive will drive room occupancy back up to around 90% from the 78% reported that would be a boost of roughly 1.3 million room nights in a year (30,000 X 12% X 365). Assuming they average $250 per night per room that's $325M a year in new revenue and that doesn't count extra meals and merchandise purchases. If it actually worked they would recover the cost in 5 years. Now if you couple that with the cost savings of ending EMHs the benefit is even higher. Of course the 3rd prong of your theory will be inevitable too. All of this could add up to huge projected revenues for WDW and justify the cost to them. Don't take any of this as me endorsing the project or supporting the decisions. I just couldn't wrap my analytic brain around how or why they could spend so much on Next Gen but this theory makes the project make sense (at least financially). Of course there is a big assumption that the FP+ benefit will actually drive occupency up. I am a bit skeptical on that personally.

Here is another thought. Maybe prong 3 of the plan will include cheaper park tickets for onsite guests too. By cheaper I don't mean they would lower the current prices, but rather the increase will be less for guests staying on property then guests who are not. Something like a 3% increase for on property guests but a 10% increase for those who are not. If there is a significant cost savings for the tickets too that would add to the probability that guests would choose to stay on property. This is just my theory, no evidence they are really considering it other than the huge FL resident AP increase this year which some people view as an attempt to jack up prices on off property locals.

 

[Figments Friend]

Until a recent trip I never realized how many hotels/condos/timeshares there were in the area around WDW. I almost always stayed on property so the most I would see is during bus rides too/from Sea World or Uni or the airport. We stayed on International Drive next to Sea World a few years back and my son was still taking naps, but would only nap in the car on the trip. I took a long drive around the International Drive area (mostly sitting in trafffic) and was pretty much blown away by the amount of "stuff" crammed in that area. I am sure that for locals or more regular visitors it is not as shocking since it built up over time, but for me it was quite an eye opening experience.

-
It is indeed insane on I-Drive now. I totally relate to your experience.
I used to live in Florida in the early 80s, and then moved up north. When i returned in 2000 to visit WDW for the first time in several years, i was absolutely shocked at the build up. It really stood out for me, having known that area well when i lived in the area back in the day. I could not believe my eyes. I used to refer to it as the *Las Vegas of the South* in the 80s....and it seems even more true NOW then ever! Crazy....

I am still amazing at all the *stuff* that seems to sprout up like weeds in the areas surrounding I-4.

 

[cba]

Reminds me of this Youtube video I saw yesterday. The daughter of this family was looking forward to going inside of the Mexico Pavilion because of the memory of it being always night time inside. When she gets inside she says "It doesnt look as night timey as it used to. There are no stars and everything".

It is true. Even kids notice when details are removed and the overall effect is diminished.

At the 6:50 mark-

Wdwprice is right. Kids do have their Disney smarts.

 

[flynnibus]

This is the first time I have heard an actual feasible reason(excuse) to drop so much cash into next gen. There just cannot be enough value in data mining to justify the cost

Business analytics is far more value then people are giving it credit here. It's not just about 'history' - it can be a real-time thing in this new age.

Imagine if BI were to influence a store to boost sales just 5% through better product positioning or targeted marketing. Over an organization like WDW.. that would be huge sums of money.

I still don't think Disney will keep this for onproperty or even deluxe stays.. there may be ELEMENTS kept for them (just like there is today in the parks) - but no way are they going to go from 'FP to all' to 'FP only to on property'. The risk for backlash is just far too great.

There are lots of things they can do to entice, without locking out entirely. Look at how DCL gives earlier booking access to frequent cruisers, etc.

Much of NextGen's build out is about establishing a foundation for new and future concepts. Its a lot like building out the highway system - it becomes an enabler for other things. I still believe the pitch for this is not about short-term ROI - but trying to fundamentally change the theme park experience. And to do so in a way that the competition can't touch. It's about Disney distancing themselves from the competition.

Now if people actually enjoy all these elements is yet to be seen. I'm sure there was similar hesitation when FP was being pitched as well... and ADRs.. etc.

 

[awoogala]

TDO expects Next Gen to generate additional revenue on its own. I’ll try to make this point using an example. What follows is not fact, just conjecture. I’m also not using real numbers, just approximations.

Let’s assume it costs $400/night for a Deluxe Resort, $200/night for a Moderate Resort, and $100/night for a Value Resort. WDW’s target family of 4, Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue, are trying to decide what they should do for their next vacation. They are not rich but have enough disposable income to afford a WDW vacation once every few years.

On previous trips, they stayed at Moderate or Value Resorts, maybe even offsite. They wanted to spend most of their time at the theme parks and the hotel mostly was a place to sleep and shower. Extra Magic Hours and Fast Passes were the same for everyone so there was little incentive to upgrade to Deluxe Resorts.

Our lovely family of 4 wants to have a relaxing vacation and is tired of getting up early so they can get FPs. They are tired of standing in line 50 minutes to ride Peter Pan, Dumbo, and Winnie the Pooh. They are tired of waking up ridiculously early or staying awake ridiculously late for EMHs. Last trip, they were disappointed because they couldn’t get a good spot to watch the nighttime parade and fireworks because they only arrived 50 minutes before show time while the crazy people started camping out 2 hours earlier. They also were disappointed that they couldn’t book a table at Cinderella’s Royal Table because Dad’s fingers weren’t fast enough to dial the number exactly at the 6-month window.

Now WDW comes up with a multi-tiered Next Gen system. If you pay more, you get more. WDW tells them, “We have a solution to all your problems. We’ll give you 3 FPs at the times you want. We’ll also give you a reserved spot to watch the parade and fireworks. We’ll also give you preferential booking at Cinderella’s Royal Table. All you have to do is stay at one of our beautiful Deluxe Resorts.”

By upgrading from (for example) a Moderate to a Deluxe Resort, WDW has extracted an extra $200/day ($400 - $200) from this family without building a single new attraction or offering a single new show. That's an extra $1400 for a week's vacation and what exactly has WDW built?

What this family gains is not FPs or ADRs; they gain “quality” vacation time. Sleep in and stand in line 4 hours less per day. Added to that, they now are staying at a fancy Deluxe Resort with more square feet. Sounds like a better vacation to me.

If you were this lovely family of four, what would you do?

The bigger question is whether Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue will come back to WDW at all. As long as Universal keeps adding E Ticket attractions and WDW doesn’t, Universal is going to have a strong appeal to this family of four.

The way WDW’s price structure exists today, there’s not much of a downside to Mom, Dad, Little Johnny, and Little Sue spending days at Universal or SeaWorld. However, now that they’re paying $400/night to stay at a WDW Deluxe Resort and have guaranteed FPs and ADRs for each day, why would they pay extra to visit Universal only to stand in line there? Obviously some will but others might say, “I’ll wait until everything’s finished at Universal before I go.” By the time that’s done, FLE and Avatarland should be almost complete so maybe that’s enough to keep this family’s trips to Universal to a minimum.

Built into this is TDO’s arrogant assumption that FLE + Avatarland = Transformers + WWOHP2. There’s a reason WDW attendance and room occupancy are suffering; it’s because the suits at TDO think “We’re WDW, everybody loves us.” Nothing’s certain; the suits could be right. Quality issues? “I got a million paying guests complaining about long lines, another half-million complaining about ADRs. I got a few hundred whining on the Internet about quality. What quality issues?”

If I approved a $1.5B expenditure for Next Gen, a $500M expenditure for FLE, and a $400M expenditure for Avatarland, I’m sticking with this story right up until the time they fire me.

I think this is the strategy being employed by TDO. Again, just conjecture.

P.S. If this is what Next Gen is, then there are a couple of intriguing aspects from a business perspective. First, as previously mentioned, WDW could eliminate EMH, saving a lot of money. EMHs are no longer needed if onsite guests get extra FPs during normal park hours. Second, this could be a way for WDW to curtail “Free Dining” and “Room Only” discounts like Iger has been threatening to do for years. Onsite guests get more FPs, better ADRs, and preferred viewing. WDW no longer needs to offer as many discounts if guests have stronger incentives to stay onsite, especially since these incentives require minimal opex.

I am a party of four. We have 2 kids, ages 10 and 7, and we have a slight desire to go to universal since harry potter was added. I don't let my kids watch a lot of today's movies like transformer, sorry. I would love to keep giving our time and money to Disney. I like the concept of next gen, we like staying on property, we like Disney transportation (we don't don't visit during "Busy" times). Men have not worked out well for us, since in January, they are not very much of an incentive. I like my fp, and since we come from Nj, where six flags "fastpass" equivalent has always been pay for play, we like the free aspect. They have me, they just need to keep me. ;-)

 

[GoofGoof]

Business analytics is far more value then people are giving it credit here. It's not just about 'history' - it can be a real-time thing in this new age.

Imagine if BI were to influence a store to boost sales just 5% through better product positioning or targeted marketing. Over an organization like WDW.. that would be huge sums of money.

I still don't think Disney will keep this for onproperty or even deluxe stays.. there may be ELEMENTS kept for them (just like there is today in the parks) - but no way are they going to go from 'FP to all' to 'FP only to on property'. The risk for backlash is just far too great.

There are lots of things they can do to entice, without locking out entirely. Look at how DCL gives earlier booking access to frequent cruisers, etc.

Much of NextGen's build out is about establishing a foundation for new and future concepts. Its a lot like building out the highway system - it becomes an enabler for other things. I still believe the pitch for this is not about short-term ROI - but trying to fundamentally change the theme park experience. And to do so in a way that the competition can't touch. It's about Disney distancing themselves from the competition.

Now if people actually enjoy all these elements is yet to be seen. I'm sure there was similar hesitation when FP was being pitched as well... and ADRs.. etc.

I would like to believe that next gen is designed to enhance guest experience and that TDO would be willing to invest $1.5B for an enhanced experience but the skeptic in me doesn't buy it. They wont invest in park maintenance and upkeep like they did in the past and they keep cutting things. It seems unlikely they would spend this much just to enhance guest's experience. There has to be a profit to be made somewhere and I agree that the data mining aspect will increase merchandise sales, but in my opinion it's not enough to justify the huge cost. If the end game ends up being some kind of additional benefit for on property guests that could justify the cost.

 

[KevinYee]

To judge by some of the responses from management when asked if it's for everyone, they might not have made up their minds. "We're working on it" was the reply when asked about annual passholders. So who knows. Maybe they'll give annuals a single reservation per day, rather than four like the hotel guests.

If the overall number of reservations for the E-ticket rides drop, then the standby lines will become more tolerable, unless the math is more complex than I'm assuming. That's the bottom line. The FP+ on stuff like Turtle Talk and Idol don't factor into the E-ticket reservations total or the E-ticket standby line, as far as I can see (setting aside the fact that some rubes may "use up" their precious reservations on Idol... but I doubt there are many that silly. In this era of the Internet, everyone is going to know what to use the reservations for).