I am willing to put up $20 that we will never truely know the distribution of the FP+
FP distribution, like attraction capacity, is one WDW's many carefully guarded pieces of information
It's possible the public will never know the FP+ distribution
algorithm. However, once the system is fully deployed, it should be possible to observe trends. Are people staying onsite generally receiving more access to "good" FP+? Do Deluxe Resorts guests appear to have generally better access than Value Resort guests?
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over time. I strongly suspect FP+ Version 1.0 is not going to be the last version. Disney should have a long-term strategy in place to evolve FP+ to reach their ultimate goal. People accept change but only in small doses. Too big of a change all at once could rock the boat. Disney does not want to rock the boat.
Disney already has eliminated the 3rd Evening Extra Magic Hours (EMH). January's EMH suggest WDW may be cutting back even further on EMH. EMH are one of the primary incentives for paying extra to stay onsite. If WDW curtails EMH further (a great way to reduce opex), what will it provide in its place? If Disney simply reduces EMH without some other means to encourage guests to stay onsite, WDW occupancy rates will decline. They already are down to 78%, a disturbingly low number given WDW's historical
occupancy rates. What is Disney going to do to improve those numbers?
Disney just spent $1-to-$2 Billion on NextGen. It makes good business sense to use this enormous capital outlay to encourage guests to stay onsite, to use NextGen (meaning FP+) as a replacement for the reduced EMH. It costs WDW essentially nothing to (for example) issue more or "better" FP+ to onsite guests. Why wouldn't TDO want to use FP+ as a way to improve occupancy rates? Doing so presents no moral or ethical
dilemma. Businesses show preferential treatment to their "best" customers all the time. Why wouldn't TDO use FP+ to show preferential treatment to its "best" customers?
Such normal hour in-park
preferential treatment would be a reversal of WDW's current egalitarian system within the theme parks. However, there is nothing "wrong" with it other than being different than what's offered today and, somehow, not feeling like it's in the spirit of what Walt Disney wanted.
Remember, Walt said:
The idea of Disneyland is a simple one. It will be a place for people to find happiness and knowledge.
It will be a place for parents and children to share pleasant times in one another's company: a place for teachers and pupils to discover greater ways of understanding and education. Here the older generation can recapture the nostalgia of days gone by, and the younger generation can savior the challenge of the future. Here will be the wonders of Nature and Man for all to see and understand.
Walt intended DL to be for everyone but Walt's words are over 60 years old and, no doubt, are viewed as antiqued by many Disney executives.
The executives in charge of Disney are running a business and they are not going to let a dead man's views from over half-a-century ago change their minds or influence their decisions.
And that's why WDW is in the state that it is today.