John park hopper
Well-Known Member
I"m no financial wiz looked up info on the market many believe it is over valued and the bubble will burst though they don't know when but it will so be careful
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Disney Labor Shortage
- Thread starter Corgi
- Start date
Yes that's the big question when to sell and take the profits.
Not at Disney thats for sure.
Yep. My portfolio has never looked so good, and I'm as liquid as I've ever been because I sell after a quick rush. Can't complain about that (other than the tax bill)
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
It will burst when the Fed stops printing money.
Will it fall? absolutely, it's how it works. Rise and fall but over time ever higher as our economy grows and expands.
Will it hurt? sure but only for a little while, in a few years we look back on "the crash of (insert year here)".
Some also use the scare tactic , it was supposed to fall 5 years ago, it was supposed to fall last year etc. Then some panicked investors pulled out their money. There were so wrong.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Howard Gold has been predicting a crash so bad you need to be heavy in gold for 30 years. Bet he dies first.....
Something similar has been said already. Part of the reason some millennials experienced insane career growth in the past year is due to boomers finally starting to cash out and retiring.
In my case, as an elder millennial (ie, middle aged millennial), I doubled my salary and career trajectory in an 8 month period, and my wife got an unexpected 20% raise and promotion.
Meanwhile there are loads of stories of service industry workers jumping ship to office jobs that became available when the person who previously held it got promoted AFTER their baby boomer supervisor finally retired.
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Yes shortages do increase prices. Then you print more and more money that makes each previous dollar worth less. This makes prices skyrocket.
Shortages are phase 1 booster. Increasing money supply is phase 2 booster. And God help us, if the feds impose price controls, that will be a phase 3 booster.
Please keep in mind, China will shortly be locking down for the Olympics which will further increase shortages.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
Amazing people aren’t getting this fact.
Can’t get help at Disney? Yeah because the Fed is mainlining cash into the economy as one reason.
Nah. I keep hearing it's because business isn't paying them enough. Like mom and pop businesses can compete with the federal printing presses.
Just started seeing social media posts from laid off CM's that they're being recalled and scheduled for training.
The majority of the comments basically state that they've already found other jobs that are better than Disney, and as such they will not return. Granted, this is anecdotal, but I foresee Disney's staffing shortages are going to be a longer term issue.
The majority of the comments basically state that they've already found other jobs that are better than Disney, and as such they will not return. Granted, this is anecdotal, but I foresee Disney's staffing shortages are going to be a longer term issue.
GrimGrinningGhost43
New Member
The FED isn't printing cash directly into the hands of consumers. Federal unemployment benefits for COVID have been gone for a while. The FED increasing the monetary supply doesn't suddenly mean that consumers and workers are suddenly flush with cash.
As mkt points out, the majority of Cast Members that are in a position to be recalled have already found jobs that pay better, are more convenient, or are more appealing from a career perspective. Staffing shortages will continue to be a long-term challenge.
Six Flags recently put out their quarterly earnings report. One of the most striking takeaways was their overall increase in labor costs, ~$40 million increase compared to labor costs for ops and security compared to 2019.
As mkt points out, the majority of Cast Members that are in a position to be recalled have already found jobs that pay better, are more convenient, or are more appealing from a career perspective. Staffing shortages will continue to be a long-term challenge.
Six Flags recently put out their quarterly earnings report. One of the most striking takeaways was their overall increase in labor costs, ~$40 million increase compared to labor costs for ops and security compared to 2019.
I believe that a lot of the staffing issues at lower-wage jobs are going to last awhile -- Disney, restaurants, retail, etc.
Combination of many things:
1. People are less willing to risk their safety for the wages being offered.
2. A fair number of families have moved away from expensive cities as the adults can work remotely now, reducing the supply of teenagers who often work these lower-wage jobs.
3. Immigration is down due to government policies in the Trump administration combined with pandemic-related restrictions. So the labor supply has not be bolstered as it usually is.
4. Pandemic-related changes in the economy have business owners reluctant to raise wages significantly, because they are operating on very little cushion and fear that raising wages enough to hire people will put them in a position where they can't be profitable.
5. During the pandemic, people spent less money doing things, spent more time at home, and realized it wasn't all that bad. Therefore, they feel less need to work.
6. Lack of child-care is a real problem. Many child-care places are not yet back to full capacity. If you can barely make enough while working to cover the now-greater cost of child care, there's no point.
7. 2 of every 1,000 people have died. While a majority were likely above working age, even that small contraction in the available workforce can be noticeable.
8. Some people refuse to get vaccinated, and some employers (e.g., Disney) have vaccine mandates -- that limits the flexibility of the pool of workers.
Individually, none of those things is particularly large, but in an economy that was close to full employment before this all started, we've gotten to the point where the supply of labor just isn't enough to meet demand. The solutions are to reduce demand (closing businesses, automation, etc.) or increase supply (bring in more workers, encourage more people to rejoin the workforce, raise wages). But these are not easy solutions, and they take time.
Combination of many things:
1. People are less willing to risk their safety for the wages being offered.
2. A fair number of families have moved away from expensive cities as the adults can work remotely now, reducing the supply of teenagers who often work these lower-wage jobs.
3. Immigration is down due to government policies in the Trump administration combined with pandemic-related restrictions. So the labor supply has not be bolstered as it usually is.
4. Pandemic-related changes in the economy have business owners reluctant to raise wages significantly, because they are operating on very little cushion and fear that raising wages enough to hire people will put them in a position where they can't be profitable.
5. During the pandemic, people spent less money doing things, spent more time at home, and realized it wasn't all that bad. Therefore, they feel less need to work.
6. Lack of child-care is a real problem. Many child-care places are not yet back to full capacity. If you can barely make enough while working to cover the now-greater cost of child care, there's no point.
7. 2 of every 1,000 people have died. While a majority were likely above working age, even that small contraction in the available workforce can be noticeable.
8. Some people refuse to get vaccinated, and some employers (e.g., Disney) have vaccine mandates -- that limits the flexibility of the pool of workers.
Individually, none of those things is particularly large, but in an economy that was close to full employment before this all started, we've gotten to the point where the supply of labor just isn't enough to meet demand. The solutions are to reduce demand (closing businesses, automation, etc.) or increase supply (bring in more workers, encourage more people to rejoin the workforce, raise wages). But these are not easy solutions, and they take time.
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Not just at that level. My wife is an attorney who earns quite well, but the majority of her colleagues are very much on the antivaxx/antimask train, and there have been several serious covid cases in her office. If she is recalled to the office, she's prepared to resign.
Mander
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
What dollars are they competing with? The Child Tax Credit? Expanded UI benefits have been gone since early September. Getting regular state benefits is incredibly difficult depending on which state and the funds are low (my state maxes out at $362/week (equivalent to $9.05/hour), few qualify for that amount).
I work with the unemployed daily. The refrain is generally the same- they want to work but they want to find a position where they will be valued, fairly compensated, and treated fairly (consistent schedules, paid sick leave, etc). If businesses want these people, they absolutely need to offer more. It's competitive out there and people are picking the jobs they want. Not to mention the cost and lack of childcare is a massive issue. If your job doesn't pay enough to cover your childcare, why wouldn't you just stay home with your kids? I've worked with lots of folks who are making that exact choice right now.
If this is all coming up in the rural, low cost of living area I am in, I can only imagine that metro areas like Orlando are many levels worse. My husband and I looked at relocating there (we have experience in hotel management and wanted to continue in the industry) but even then it wasn't affordable since hospitality wages are so low (not just an Orlando problem- we saw from Jackson, WY to Traverse City, MI).
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Now add to that the uncertainty if your child will need to quarantine or temporarily go remote again, and the pressure becomes even more intense for one parent to stay at home.
They stopped giving stimulus checks and expended unemployment has been gone for months.
Your argument is invalid.