Disney in more trouble than it seems??

[DisneyMusician2]

WDW is doing just fine according to Disney's 4th quarter earning report.

Attendance and guest spending are both up for now...

WDW could see a decrease in 2009, but I wouldn't worry about a company that makes billions of dollars in profit every year.

Clearly they themselves are worried, or this deal would never have been in place.

They most certainly will see a decrease in 2009, just as any consumer-driven business will. The question will be how much and what DIsney will do to comabt the problem on a regualr basis.

 

[yankspy]

National unemployment hit 12.5% in 1982! It rose to 6.5% last month, which historically speaking is still rather low. Heck, in many western european countries (like France or Belgium) unemployment hovered between 8% and 10% for most of the past 10 years!

It's funny how so many of these younger folks around today have no personal experience with a decent recession and a year or two of tough economic times. The economy stumbles and the media screams bloody murder about it to keep you tuned in until the commercial break, and these kids today really buy into it and think this is something new.

Recessions happen regularly and can be a whole lot worse than what we've seen in 2008 or what we're facing for 2009! :lol:

Yep. I think everyone needs to stop watching the news.

I'm sure the Soviets felt the same way right before their economy went poof! When the country is broke, it's broke. All we do as a country is borrow and spend. An economy stumbling is one thing, but borrowing billions without a way to repay it going to make things much worse.

Agreed. However, we have done that before too.

Unemployment during the Carter years; 1977 6.9%, 1978 6.0%, 1979 5.0%, 1980 7.0%.

You are correct. I was looking at a large graph with small rows and numbers and it seems like perhaps I was looking at some of the quarters in 81. However, your first statement still seemed a little off since unemployment did rise higher after Carter.

 

[sweetpee_1993]

They've certainly been doing it a lot longer than that. When DVC first started they gave away pairs of length of stay unlimited park tickets (which covered everything except AK) for use until about 1999. Not to mention when they still had things like the Magic Kingdom Club.

Oh yeah. I was certain the discounts and gimmees had been going on a lot longer than what my knowledge is but I'm not one to spit out numbers and figures I don't know for sure. I thought the article wasn't very well researched or written. Pretty sad, really. Thanks for the info. I haven't looked at the historical discount/promo info on mousesavers in a while but I don't think theirs goes back to the early WDW days. I wonder if there's a database with the early early discounts and promos somewhere. That would be interesting stuff.

 

[Gorjus]

I'm pretty sure 4th quarter earnings aren't out yet:lookarounsince we just started the 4th quarter. However, according to one of my managers, 3rd quarter earnings are down. And to eleviate any worries the cast may have, he assured us that at no time in Disney history, to the best of his knowledge, has Disney ever had lay-offs. They have and will reduce hours, probably, to the minimum required by law. In 2001 they offered voluntary separation packages. Enough people took advantage of them so that they didn't have to lay anyone off. He also said what all the smart people know: economies are cyclical. Or to quote Bert from Mary Poppins: "what's about to happen all happened before"...and will happen again.

 

[peter11435]

I'm pretty sure 4th quarter earnings aren't out yet:lookarounsince we just started the 4th quarter. However, according to one of my managers, 3rd quarter earnings are down. And to eleviate any worries the cast may have, he assured us that at no time in Disney history, to the best of his knowledge, has Disney ever had lay-offs. They have and will reduce hours, probably, to the minimum required by law. In 2001 they offered voluntary separation packages. Enough people took advantage of them so that they didn't have to lay anyone off. He also said what all the smart people know: economies are cyclical. Or to quote Bert from Mary Poppins: "what's about to happen all happened before"...and will happen again.

Actually 4th quarter earning are out. We just started the first quarter.

 

[vickyvale]

Correct, Disney runs their fiscal year Oct-Oct.

I wouldn't take this as a sign that Disney is in trouble but that they are planning ahead for a potentially difficult time. Giving incentives to book will certainly help to get people who are worried about budget onto Disney property.

 

[Gorjus]

Actually 4th quarter earning are out. We just started the first quarter.

Well, there you go. See me, speculating on things I have no business speculating on. Until you are about to retire, the price of your stock is irrelevant...relatively speaking.

 

[Kamikaze]

If this recession (or depression) lasts a few years then closing hotels would be bad. Cast members would be out of work & the buildings would deteriorate from not being used. I love Disney, but how many hotels & DVC properties do they really need? How much is too much? When your customer base is running out of cash then it's time to rethink how to run things. Once a company gets too big through never ending expansion it will fail due to finances. Everything does eventually, no business is immune.

I didn't say it wouldn't be bad, just that it was a way for them to go.
Also, you are vastly overstating the 'deterioration' of an unused building. Its not like its going to crumble and fall down if they don't have bookings in it for a couple of months during slow periods.

 

[Mr. Tickle]

I didn't say it wouldn't be bad, just that it was a way for them to go.
Also, you are vastly overstating the 'deterioration' of an unused building. Its not like its going to crumble and fall down if they don't have bookings in it for a couple of months during slow periods.

True, if it's only for a couple of months. My main point is they should have invested more in the parks themselves. People will always go to the parks even in a bad economy, but they will stay off property to get the best deal to make their $ go the furthest. Basically they could have made better investments than in a never ending supply of hotels. Disney could have made their business economy proof if they balanced it out right a while ago & not let greed get in the way.

 

[TravisMT81]

Henny Penny the sky is falling

 

[Enigma]

Disney understands the economy better than politicians and some voters do. If you give people more buying power for their money, or if you give them back some of their money, or if you don't take as much money away from them, they will spend it, thus more revenue.

Cases in point:
Buy 4 get 3 free (nights in a hotel room)------my sister is coming to Orlando when she thought she was going to have to skip this year.

Cast member 50% discount.-----I'm buying Christmas presents for people I thought I was going to have to say no to this year.

Free Dining plan.-----people coming to WDW knowing the normally high food bill has been eliminated from their budget.

People are spending money they normally wouldn't spend because it gets them more.

looolll. Some people will come down because of the new discounts but its gonna take much more than that to bring the masses down to WDW come January.

 

[Pete C]

I like how the article tries to compare value Disney resorts to "perfectly good" $25 motels. :brick:

 

[bgraham34]

I like how the article tries to compare value Disney resorts to "perfectly good" $25 motels. :brick:

I did not know you could get a room for $25 anymore.

 

[fosse76]

If this recession (or depression) lasts a few years then closing hotels would be bad. Cast members would be out of work & the buildings would deteriorate from not being used. I love Disney, but how many hotels & DVC properties do they really need? How much is too much? When your customer base is running out of cash then it's time to rethink how to run things. Once a company gets too big through never ending expansion it will fail due to finances. Everything does eventually, no business is immune.

Exactly. And if you don't believe it, just ask Cieran Burke, former CEO of Premier Parks, the Company that purchased Six Flags from Time Warner and pretty much ran it into the ground. They spent so much time trying to micromanage the operation of thirty parks, they ran up HUGE debts, virtually destroying the company's value.

 

[WDW1974]

I did not know you could get a room for $25 anymore.

Yes, you can

I just stayed at a very nice County Inn and Suites on 535 in LBV for $20 a night (with breakfast and free highspeed Internet and a resort style pool complex with zero entry pool and waterslide and jacuzzi).

You might want to check out the wonders of Priceline.com's 'name your own price' bidding service.

I also wound up at the DD Hilton (better than most Disney resorts) for $49 a night.

And the deals will likely get even better!