draybook
Well-Known Member
People around here wouldn't exaggerate or inflate anything to further an agenda, would they?
Seriously, do you believe the things that you type?
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Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .
- Thread starter KeithVH
- Start date
Seriously, do you believe the things that you type?
Do you? I'm all about the reality of what is happening, not some made up numbers that people spout off. Please try to remember that I am talking about the alleged 30% less crowd level here. Nothing else. Yes, crowds may be down, but nowhere to that level. All you have to do is look at just the previous 10 or so posts here, you can see that people are reporting that crowds are pretty heavy right now.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
All you have to do is look at Disney's response to see that crowds were down, are expected to stay higher through late August for whatever reason, and then projected to decline.
I agree that 30% always seemed unreasonable.
As I have stated multiple times, I never disagreed with the crowds are down part, just the 30% part, and those that jumped on the bandwagon to say that Disney was doomed because of it.
SorcererMC
Well-Known Member
I'm not going back through the whole thread, but that 30% statistic you are quoting refers, I believe, to the drop in projected hotel occupancy rates, which is an indicator of attendance levels. Whether or not '30%' is accurate, is unknown; Disney does not publicly release those numbers. There is usually about a two-month lag in other publicly available numbers eg Visit Orlando. Orlando was anticipating a 'normal summer' with slight increases compared to previous years; Disney was expecting softer summer attendance as of 2Q earnings call.
Even an estimated 10% drop in WDW attendance would likely have undesirable consequences. That does not mean that 'Disney is doomed!' - it means that adjustments will need to be made, such as staff cuts and more discounts offered. Both the guest experience and local workforce would likely be impacted. Whether that is good or bad or not, depends on your judgment or perspective.
Nope, it was stated that theme park attendance was down 30%. A few TAs have chimed in that no one has cancelled or changed their plans either, and that bookings are actually higher, so that claimed "fact" of decreased hotel levels is also not true.
A 10% drop in attendance might be exactly what Disney was hoping for. No one has come here to claim that there are any layoffs or staff reductions due to the lower crowd levels, so it is possible that the level of service may have increased. I will agree that it isn't to the levels seen 20 or 30 years ago, but maybe, just maybe, it will get there again.
SorcererMC
Well-Known Member
I appreciate your optimism. Given multiple recent events and other economic indicators, I have no qualms about stating that WDW and Orlando tourism industry is potentially in for quite a shock compared to the boom of the last few years. Mass on-property hotel cancellations following the gator attack, for example, would not be abnormal in the slightest, when compared to comparable events.
Whether a drop in attendance is an isolated occurrence in response to those events or an emerging trend (ie, a bust) remains to be seen over the next few months, as well as after the holiday season into 2017. I happen to think - 'it doesn't look good', and I hope I'm wrong. So, I welcome any evidence - including anecdotal reports - that shows a positive trend otherwise.
Edit: re: increase in bookings - sometimes bad publicity still counts, and there are always those who would take advantage of expected discounts, or lower attendance at their favorite tourist destination (WDW or other). Most people, and financial markets, consider an attack a singular one-off event, not likely to be repeated.
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
The 30% figure is what I was hearing in the last 2 weeks of June heading into the 4th of July weekend. I have also heard from tour group operators that their business is off 70% from this time last year.
It does appear that the new 25% off of hotel rooms deal that runs through 8/31 is working at getting more bodies on property. And the bookings starting in the fall for MNSSHP and F&W and through the Holidays are very strong.
So while they may have been bumping off of 30% that has not been a sustained trend.
It does appear that the new 25% off of hotel rooms deal that runs through 8/31 is working at getting more bodies on property. And the bookings starting in the fall for MNSSHP and F&W and through the Holidays are very strong.
So while they may have been bumping off of 30% that has not been a sustained trend.
SorcererMC
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the clarification/ update.
HauntedMansionFLA
Well-Known Member
I surprised that we haven't received resort discounts the first of December. I keep hearing chatter that they wouldn't be any? I guess wait and see. I guess it would keep the crowds at a manageable level if no discounts. We will be at the Poly the first of December.
That is what I have suspected from the beginning about the reports of lower crowds. I think Disney is finally being affected by Universals success. Universal has built new immersive rides and lands. Universal is now the preferred vacation spot especially for families with preteens and teenagers. Staying onsite you can easily fill 4-5 days if not longer. Its no longer a 1 or 2 day experience. Disney has done nothing but close attractions and events (SWW& osborn lights) just to name a few and all we got was a new film for an existing ride and a ride overlay for Frozen. I think the majority of opinion about AK nights are basically a bust. We are going to have a cheapened Toy Story land in a couple of years and SWL within the next 5. Thats too long. The construction should have started years ago.
21stamps
Well-Known Member
I can say with absolute certainty that my 6 year old, or his friends, or his cousins could care less about any of the things you mentioned.
I don't think most kids care about them either. So as long as kids want to go to WDW parents will take them.
What worries me is that free dining wasn't offered on that week either (I don't care about FD, but it seems like room discounts are usually offered at same time). We will be at AKL 11/24-11/26 and then the Contemporary 12/3-12/7. Like I said, I never expected discounts for thanksgiving, but I thought for sure we would get 30% off on the December week!
BernardandBianca
Well-Known Member
Was at EPCOT yesterday, and AK today. Crowds were somewhat lesser than earlier this summer, but not in the 1st of December range. Nemo, Living with the Land, Imagination, SSE and the Pixar shorts were all walk-ons, but (go figure) Soaring was 2 1/2 hours standby, even with the three venues. But we had our choice of TS restaurants, even just 1 hour prior to dining, to make an ADR (the only way we go). Ended up at Coral Reef, which was only 2/3 full at 1:00 pm.
Got Fastpasses for KS and EE for 2:20 and 3:25 respectively by going online at 11:00 am. today. Lunch at Y&Y was arranged at that 11:00 am. time for 12:30, so things weren't booked. We actually walked-on via single rider line at EE at noon. Our FP for KS was completely unneeded (in fact, we mentioned that to the CM there, and she joked that it at least made for a shorter walk). The FP line for EE was longer than the standby line. We got into line for the Nemo show at 1:50, and were in for the 2:00 show easily. We left then to avoid the coming storm (after all, this is Florida in the summer).
So everyone probably has a different perception, but things haven't been nearly as crowded for us as it has been since 2009.
Got Fastpasses for KS and EE for 2:20 and 3:25 respectively by going online at 11:00 am. today. Lunch at Y&Y was arranged at that 11:00 am. time for 12:30, so things weren't booked. We actually walked-on via single rider line at EE at noon. Our FP for KS was completely unneeded (in fact, we mentioned that to the CM there, and she joked that it at least made for a shorter walk). The FP line for EE was longer than the standby line. We got into line for the Nemo show at 1:50, and were in for the 2:00 show easily. We left then to avoid the coming storm (after all, this is Florida in the summer).
So everyone probably has a different perception, but things haven't been nearly as crowded for us as it has been since 2009.
You mentioned 6 year old, i was referring to an older age group 12 and up. I have several friends and coworkers that took their families to Universal for the first time between last year and this year and said they wont be back at Disney. They always assumed prior that Universal was inferior but they came back saying Disney doesnt have anything that remotely compares Universal thrillwise and themewise. They are not Harry Potter fans and was in awe how amazing and fun it was. They all stayed onsite and each kept bragging how fun their hotels were. My point is Disney has always been a week vacation and Universal 2 days at most. Now Universal can be at least a 5 day vacation and I know are pulling customers away from Disney. I am not referring to die hard Disney loyal fans just the customers that are out to get the most value and excitement for their families vacation. I am just referring to Orlando, I know Carsland in California is on the same level as far as immersiveness.
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21stamps
Well-Known Member
I completely agree with you on that. I love Universal/IoA/City Walk. I haven't been since before Harry Potter and I'm sure the parks are even better now. When my son is 12 we definitely won't do a full week at WDW. I even tried to squeeze in Universal for our upcoming trip, mainly for Grinchmas and the parade, but it would just be too hectic. As soon as kiddo is a little taller we will do WDW, Uni/IoA, and Sea World during the same trip. We've just started reading the 1st HP book, and so far he loves it.
I went to IoA so many times as an adult, and attended Holloween Horror Nights every year. I definitely won't say anything negative about Universal. As far as their resorts- Royal Pacific is probably the only one that would interest my kid, and I hope to do a split trip between there and Disney within the next 2 years, (not quite split but maybe a 5/3 conbo) we just have too many trips thru 2017 for the to be an immediate possibility. I feel like our upcoming DCL/WDW trip is the last year he will be really into the characters. Besides Star Wars of course.
As far as staying away because of lack of new attractions though, I'm sure some people may, but I don't think a lot care. We love Old Town/Fun Spot. That hasn't changed in years. I also never once thought about lack of new attractions when I went to WDW annually as a kid. I was just excited to go and see my favorites. We get annual/season passes to the Zoo/Museum Center/Aquarium/Cedar Fair park every year - never get sick of them, and go a heck of a lot more than WDW.lol
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lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Attendance and crowding are not the same and their correlation has been significantly weakened.
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
I'm hearing Fall into the holidays are strong, verging on problematic.
21stamps
Well-Known Member
Shhhhhh!!! Don't say that.. I specifically am keeping my kid out of school for 9 days to avoid the crowds!!!
I would think they have a strong correlation though.